Thread: 2005 AILF Economic Growth & Immigration report, opinions

http://www.ailf.org/ipc/special_report/ ... idging.pdf

I am a new poster here on the board but have been reading a lot of posts over the last several months.

I was wondering if anyone could provide or point me in the right direction for rebuttals against this report? I am specifically interested on page 9 "Impact of Immigration on the US Economy" where they state in essence that illegal aliens do NOT depress wages for American citizens. (Using static vs. dynamic models)

The fact that the shear numbers of illegal aliens in this country NOT depressing wages for American citizens just doesn't pass the "smile" test as Lou Dobbs would say.

One piece of information that I have read elsewhere states that illegal aliens are costing American citizens $200 billion a year in lowered wages.

I think I am a little over my head in the economics of this and was hoping that someone with a little more experience might be able to shed some light on the subject?

Thanks in advance!

Welcome aboard Bullseye!

Let me make a first-pass attempt to answer or address your question or concern - hopefully, others will chime-in to set me straight and/or augment any additional required info on the topic...

Disclaimers first:
a). This is purely an 'unofficial' answer:
b). From a non-economist (but with a BS, MS and generally privy to scientific method, a fair amount of multivariate stat. methods, etc)
c). Is 'partial' to one perspective over the other in all this.

OK, having said the above, here you go:

Both sides in the debate 'seek out' and rely upon research which is deemed favorable to each's cause - no big surprise, right?
Probably the most visible and strongest economist which supports the notion that 'unfettered illegal immigrant' labor depresses native labor rates is [arguably] Prof. Jorge Borjas at Harvard Univ. So, that is a good 'high-level' source to rebut the info you referenced in your post.

I'll try to go dig up a few others to help (they are out there, and I usually keep lists of such things tucked away here on the machine somewhere...I just forget where at the moment).

Also, I try to remind people on this subject: arguments which are framed in a great deal of theoretical complexity are not needed in order to support the notion that large numbers of illegals suppress or depress native wage rates. The answer is much simpler and easier to understand by the mass of the sheeple: If there were a shortage of workers, the wage rates would then increase. The fact that wage rates for the lowest tier of workers has remained very nearly the same or even declined some (in some sectors) suggests that, at the very least, there is, if anything, a surplus of workers- for sure, there IS NO SHORTAGE. That is not complex economic theory that only PhD economists can understand, it is COMMON SENSE.

Examples:
Construction workers (various specialties),
Restaurant/Food Service,
Landscaping/Nursery/etc.,

Note also that, the other 'side' of the debate which isn't talked about as much publicly at least, is the issue of H1-B 'imported specialty workers' - especially those that come in legally, but become visa overstayers and/or absconders later on. Those present a similar sort of problem, but not to the 'low-end' of the labor force, but to the higher-end - eg. 'white collar professional' jobs as in high-tech engineering, software development, certain research-related areas, etc.

Plus, as in your subject line you reference 'economic growth' - and my reply to that would be.. 'for who(m)'. Economists always measure such things with 'global averages' of factors - measures which emphasize sum total overall aspects of the economy, not necessarily the impact nor effects within any one part, or sub-part are doing. Of course, when a special interest group puts out a press release referencing 'economic growth'...then, the humble reader will tend to unquestioningly, ASSUME (often incorrectly) that such thing is actually taking place. Now, let me ask you, does such a contention sync with the fact that:

1). Foreclosures are rising
2). Trade imbalance with other countries is at an all-time, or very nearly all-time deficit
3). 'Real' wages (after adjustment for inflation) are at a 40-50 year low for the lowest workers on the income scale
4). Fewer people have income security projected for upcoming retirement years
5). American consumers (individuals) are assuming an ever increasing debt-load (credit cards in particular) than any time in recent history
6). etc, etc
???

To argue that the 'economy is just humming along for the benefit of everyone' just doesn't jive with reality. There are 'global measures' which suggest a lot of companies and businesses are doing ok - along with a lot of wealthy people also - the 'average' American isn't benefitting very much by the way things are at present. I'll just say: to most people, this phenomenon isn't considered to be a problem (well, to many at least) UNTIL it is YOUR JOB that has been supplanted by the newly-arrived worker willing to do the same job as a 'virtual slave' for the employer. When it is personally experienced, the impact is understood - no explanation needed.

HTH / </end diatribe>

-PhE

I didn't see Senator kennedy or specter's signature on this article. It sounds like the Senate wrote this!

Welcome Bullseye. W and his team should have plenty of tools you can use to rebutt this trashy article.

Hey Sip!:

Yeah, the article referenced is cut from the OBL mold big time.

Plus, the one thing that bugs me a little bit in even framing things in the 'the ecomonic concerns are the ONLY concerns' about immigration / illegal immigration... is that, there are people like me, that can simply be opposed to II based almost entirely on the assimilation side to the argument.

While, it might run counter to a lot of folks here, I really don't care all that much about the monetary aspects - I want all new immigrants to assimilate - to create 1 culture, 1 society, 1 language.. and, most importantly, 1 set of laws for ALL people - to keep a unified, cohesive country together. If it costs a few more bucks, so be it.

Re: the article...let me offer a colloquial buzzphrase: 'consider the source'
(OBL)

I want all new immigrants to assimilate - to create 1 culture, 1 society, 1 language.. and, most importantly, 1 set of laws for ALL people - to keep a unified, cohesive country together.

We were headed in that direction just fine until we feel asleep at the wheel in regards to illegal immigration.
[/quote]

Hi There GFC,

Yes, agreed - sad but true.

Thank you all very much for your kind replies! I have a financial and economic background, but even so, it can be difficult at best to interpret statistical data, simply because statistics can be made to say whatever you want it to.

I beleive I got the $200 billion from the Harvard professor you mentioned. This too is subjective. But the old "supply and demand" cannot be dismissed.

As stated, on page 9 of this report, they want you to NOT believe what your eyes are telling you.

If you are able to dig any of that info up, I would be very interested in reading it.

Thanks for you help!