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Thread: ACTUARIAL REVIEW: Analysis of Recent Polls Shows Trump Win and Possible Landslide

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  1. #1
    Administrator Jean's Avatar
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    ACTUARIAL REVIEW: Analysis of Recent Polls Shows Trump Win and Possible Landslide

    Jim Hoft Oct 18th, 2016 10:02 am

    Ann Coulter warned in her book Slander in 2003 that the far left main stream media always uses polls to push their agenda. Polls can be skewed by selecting an unreasonable sample size, by asking lead up questions or by selecting more of a sample population of one side of an issue to achieve a desired result.

    Main stream media skews polls to discourage potential voters from voting and has done it for years.

    A good example of the media trying to shape a vote was in 1980. In a Gallup poll released on October 26th in 1980, two weeks before the election, Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan 47 – 39. Two weeks later Reagan won in such a landslide that Carter conceded before California was closed.



    Another example of mainstream liberal media bias was in 1988. A Gallup Poll from July 26 showed Michael S. Dukakis leading George H. W. Bush by 17 points. Of course Bush went on to thump Dukakis in the general election.

    This past week a number of polls show Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump by various margins. One poll last week reported by NBC/WSJ showed Hillary ahead by 11. However, Truthfeed pointed out that NBC/WSJ didn’t mention that the poll was created by a Hillary Super PAC.

    It’s also well known that the Monmouth University poll is run by a Hillary Huckster who recently was caught manipulating a poll and then lied about it.

    Realclearpolitics.com takes an average of these distorted polls to come up with their analysis of the current race. Their efforts are a great example of the phrase – ‘garbage in – garbage out’.

    Expert Analysis

    With all the liberal distortions and dishonesty we decided to have a small team of actuarial and statistics professionals take a look at a couple of the recent polls to get their take on the reliability of these polls. They selected the recent FOX poll from October 14 showing Hillary up by 7 and the WSJ/NBC poll from October 16 showing Hillary with an 11 point lead.

    The first observation is that both polls are heavily skewed towards Democrats. At a high level, the FOX poll consists of 43 Dems to 36 Reps to 21 Other while the NBC poll shows 44 Dems to 37 Reps to 19 Other.

    By selecting more Dems the polls are designed to provide a Dem result.

    Our experts next analyzed the data and calculated results using the same data from the two surveys on a split of 40 Dems, 40 Reps and 20 Other. The results show that using either sets of data Trump comes out ahead with a larger margin of victory using the FOX data.

    Clearly the polls using data that is heavily weighted towards Democrat voters is incorrectly skewed.

    This year Republicans crushed their previous record in the primaries for number of votes by 150%. Their old record was 20 million and this year 31 million voted in the primaries.

    The Democrats on the other hand had 7 million votes less than their record year in 2008 with 30 million this year compared to 37 million in 2008.

    Also, the primaries were heavily contested on both sides resulting in factions from each party vowing not to vote for the party candidate. The impact of these two groups is difficult to judge. The percentage of these voters that change parties is probably limited. If anything, the Sanders people will probably be more likely to vote for Trump since he is an outsider and many of them will never vote for Crooked Hillary.

    Finally, it is difficult to determine what the independent voters will do but many independent voters partook in the primaries to vote for Trump. Therefore it is more likely that Independent voters vote for Trump as well.

    If more Democratic voters vote for Trump than Republicans vote for Hillary and more Independents vote for Trump than Hillary, both scenarios which are highly likely, then the results of the general election will likely be a Trump landslide.

    Let’s face it NOBODY likes Hillary and NOBODY trusts Hillary.

    Nobody trusted Hillary before WikiLeaks. Trump is filling arenas around the country but Hillary can barely fill half a high school gymnasium. Her VP candidate Tim Kaine can’t even get 50 people at an event.

    Obama had yard signs everywhere. Hillary has none. This is because people are embarrassed to support lying Hillary.

    — Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) October 17, 2016

    Maybe the current polls are not just inaccurate – maybe they are dead wrong.

    http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016...ble-landslide/
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  2. #2
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    I told you! Just call more Dems, skew the polls, do it collectively with everyone following the other one's lead, and there you have it:

    RIGGED POLLS!!

    Thanks Jim Hoft and TheGateWay Pundit!!
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    Senior Member grandmasmad's Avatar
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    I have been praying for this!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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  4. #4
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    The Lame Cherry blog put an interesting post up yesterday:

    More Fraud JP Gottrockets Polling Smearing Donald Trump

    As another Lame Cherry exclusive in matter anti matter.


    I do not know what to do with the volume of information which must be addressed as over a dozen posts a day will not remedy the situation for your brains. The latest fraud polls though must be addressed so that you do not believe them and are disheartened.


    There are 3 polls being touted now in the press, but if you notice the polls are mentioned with a wide margin of fluctuations of 4 to 10 points, YOU ARE NOT BEING LINKED TO THOSE POLLS, as this fraud operation does not want some popular girl easy access to these fake polls to expose them.


    If you listen closely though, something is changed and it is deliberate in how this latest poll is being rigged. Do you remember the past polls all had Gary Johnson the ultra leftist surging in the polls? Yes Johnson was up to like 12 points and poor little Jill Stein was always crippled along at 3%.
    As you read this fraud release from Monmouth observe how they have stolen votes from Johnson now to inflate Hillary Clintons numbers.




    Currently, 46% of likely voters support Clinton and 39% back Trump, with 7% supporting Libertarian Gary Johnson, and 2% backing Jill Stein of the Green Party. Support among all registered voters stands at 43% Clinton, 36% Trump, 8% Johnson, and 2% Stein. In a poll taken earlier this month shortly after the Democratic convention, Clinton held a larger 50% to 37% lead among likely voters and a 46% to 34% lead among all registered voters.
    Clinton has the support of 85% of Democrats, a slight drop from the 92% support she had a few weeks ago. Trump gets the backing of 78% of Republicans, which is virtually unchanged from 79% earlier this month. Independents remain divided, although they now give slightly more support to Clinton (37%) than to Trump (32%)


    As I had you focus on Gary Johnson, I want you to see something disastrous now which you missed. Look at the above in how many points Hillary Clinton has dropped in less than a month AMONG DEMOCRATS.
    Hillary Clinton has dropped from 92% to 85%. That is ALMOST 10 PERCENT of democrats who will not be voting for Hamrod.


    Let me explain this a bit further in how this stacks up to Monmouth releasing another fraud poll. OK Hillary supposedly gained 11 points on Donald Trump, because she was 4 behind and is now 7 ahead.
    Hamrod LOST 7 points in her own party. Gary Johnson in this poll has lost 5% and Jill Stein has lost 3%, so in all of this number shifting which includes a 5% drop by Mr. Trump, how did 20 percentage points vanish from everyone but Hillary Clinton from the last polling, and Hillary Clinton was the only person in the poll who "surged".


    The numbers simply do not add up. Stein and Johnson can not lose 8 points, Hamrod 7 points and Mr. Trump 5 points, and Hillary Clinton only rise 11 points. Those are Monmouth's own statements in how the numbers shifted and the numbers do not match their numbers.


    Those almost 10 points Hillary Clinton lost from Democrats, did not go to Stein or Johnson......they did not go to Clinton, so why in hell are they not showing up on Donald Trump's numbers where they did go?




    More damning confessions from Monmouth is in this statement from them in their polling:




    METHODOLOGY
    The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from August 25 to 28, 2016 with a national random sample of 802 registered voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 401 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 landline / 201 cell phone) and 401 using random digit dial (200 landline / 201 cell phone).


    Monmouth is NOT EVEN LISTING how many liberals, conservatives or independents they are polling. They are hiding that reality as that is what Lame Cherry kept hammering what was fraud in these polls. So in the new polling, it is not even being reported what kind of over sample they are implementing to give a false read to Hillary Clinton.


    These polls are all steering polls, like Brexit and are meant to dishearten you to not vote. The reality is vote fraud is rampant in America, and I am not stating that Hillary Clinton can not steal this election as this crook is attempting daily, but I am telling all of you to take heart, get out and vote, because if you look at the polling, a blind person can see they are fraud, because they are.




    Editor's Note: It may be that the blog might fall apart some in the next weeks, as things are so fluid now in information must be posted ASAP to refute the Clinton lies, and I may have to reorganize from 2 AM postings to whenever I happen across something like these polls which must be addressed and exposed, which will be throughout the day.


    I apologize for this to the people who read in the morning, but I am trying with all my energies to elect Donald Trump as without Mr. Trump, the world has nothing but a coming nuclear war and a global police state picking us off like nits


    http://lamecherry.blogspot.com/2016/...s-polling.html
    Last edited by Mayday; 10-18-2016 at 02:56 PM. Reason: Bad link
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  5. #5
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    I LOVE TRUMP SUPPORTERS!!! THEY ARE SO SMART!!

    GET SMART!!

    VOTE FOR DONALD J TRUMP FOR PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES!!


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