Thread: Brokered Convention

Brokered convention
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In United States politics, a brokered convention is a situation in which no single candidate has secured a pre-existing majority of delegates (whether those selected by primary elections and caucuses, or superdelegates) prior to the first official vote for a political party's presidential candidate at its nominating convention.

Once the first ballot, or vote, has occurred, and no candidate has a majority of the delegates' votes, the convention is then considered brokered; thereafter, the nomination is decided through a process of alternating political horse-trading, and additional re-votes.[1][2][3][4] In this circumstance, all regular delegates (who, previously, may have been pledged to a particular candidate according to rules which vary from state to state) are "released," and are able to switch their allegiance to a different candidate before the next round of balloting. It is hoped that this 'freedom' will result in a re-vote resulting in a clear majority of delegates for one candidate.

Superdelegate votes are counted on the first ballot. Although the term "brokered convention" is sometimes used to refer to a convention where the outcome is decided by superdelegate votes rather than pledged delegates alone, this is not the original sense of the term. Like a brokered convention, the potentially decisive role played by superdelegates can often go against the popular vote from the primaries and caucuses.

Contents

1 Brokered conventions in history
2 Conventions close to being brokered
2.1 2008 presidential election
3 Brokered conventions today
4 Brokered conventions in popular culture
5 References

Brokered conventions in history

Before the era of presidential primary elections, political party conventions were routinely brokered. The Democratic Party required two-thirds of delegates to choose a candidate, starting with the first Democratic National Convention in 1832, and then at every convention from 1844 until 1936. This made it far more likely to have a brokered convention, particularly when two strong factions existed. The most infamous example was at the 1924 Democratic National Convention (the Klanbake), where the divisions between Wets and Drys on Prohibition (and other issues) led to 102 ballots of deadlock between frontrunners Alfred E. Smith and William G. McAdoo before dark horse John W. Davis was chosen as a compromise candidate on the 103rd ballot. Adlai Stevenson (of the 1952 Democratic Party) and Thomas E. Dewey (of the 1948 Republican Party) were the most recent "brokered convention" presidential nominees.[citation needed] The last winning U.S. presidential nominee produced by a brokered convention was Franklin D. Roosevelt, in 1932.
Conventions close to being brokered

Since 1952, there have been many years when brokered conventions were projected but did not come to pass:

The Democratic Party's 1968 convention might have been brokered if Robert F. Kennedy had not been assassinated. He had won most of the primaries, but not enough delegates were then selected by primaries to determine the presidential nominee. President Lyndon B. Johnson, who had decided against running for a second term, still controlled most of the party machinery and used it in support of Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who did not contest the primaries. If Kennedy had lived, the convention likely would have been divided between him and Humphrey's supporters.

In 1976, the Republican primaries gave President Gerald Ford a slight lead in both popular vote and delegates before the Republican National Convention, but he did not have enough delegates to secure the nomination. A brokered convention was predicted but Ford managed to receive the necessary support on the first ballot to edge Ronald Reagan. That is the last time a Republican presidential convention opened without the nominee having already been decided in the primaries.[5]

In 1980, Senator Ted Kennedy, challenging incumbent President Jimmy Carter for the Democratic nomination, fell short in the primaries, but he was still angling for delegates to switch over to him when he arrived at the Democratic convention in August. However, Carter won handily on the first ballot, and Kennedy finally dropped out of the running a few hours later.

In 1984, as a result of the Democratic primaries, former Vice President Walter Mondale was the clear frontrunner but remained 40 delegates short of clinching the nomination. His nomination had to be formalized at the convention, being the last time that any presidential convention opened without the nominee having already been decided in the primaries. However, a convention fight was unlikely, as rival Gary Hart was lobbying for the Vice Presidential slot on the ticket and was resigned to the likely possibility that Mondale would receive the nomination. Mondale indeed received the overwhelming support of superdelegates on the first ballot to become the Democratic presidential candidate.[6]

In 1988, a brokered convention was predicted for the Democrats. There was initially no clear frontrunner since Gary Hart had withdrawn. Also, Michael Dukakis, Al Gore, and Jesse Jackson each won multiple primaries on Super Tuesday.[7] Dukakis was named the frontrunner by the media, as he drew support from all sections of the nation while other candidates' support was largely limited to their native regions, and he maintained the momentum and secured the nomination in the next round of primaries.

2008 presidential election
Main article: 2008 Democratic National Convention

For the 2008 election there had been speculation that the Democratic Party's national convention might be brokered, or at least that the convention might commence without a presumptive nominee.[8]

For the Democrats a brokered convention was considered possible, as it was unclear for a time whether either of the two frontrunners, Senator Barack Obama and Senator Hillary Clinton, would be able to win a majority of pledged delegates before the convention. The only other candidate with pledged delegates was John Edwards, with 0.5% of the delegates.

The provisos given above do not consider the fact that Michigan and Florida's delegates were originally excluded, since they held their primaries too early in violation of party rules. However, through a compromise by the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee, Michigan and Florida delegates were seated and received 0.5 votes per delegate. Clinton's Michigan campaign chair James Blanchard, argued that both states should have their full delegate slates restored; David Bonior who was now on Obama's team pointed out that these primaries were not proper contests - Clinton was the only presidential candidate that campaigned and therefore won most of the popular vote in these states - and that the DNC compromise was a concession on their part.

While falling behind Obama in the popular vote and delegates won through primaries and caucuses, Clinton initially enjoyed a large lead in superdelegates and maintained that they believed that she was the stronger candidate in the general election. Nonetheless, Obama criticized Clinton's rationale saying that the superdelegates' decisive role could be seen as undemocratic if it went against the popular vote. During the last week of primaries, DNC Chairman Howard Dean was also pressuring undecided superdelegates to commit to either remaining presidential candidate, in order to avert the potentially divisive contest carrying on in the summer. Clinton opposed Dean's initiative, because she planned to continue all the way to the convention where the undecided superdelegates would be her last chance to get the nomination, knowing that she could not overtake Obama's lead in the remaining primaries. With Obama taking North Carolina by double digits and almost winning the crucial blue-collar state of Indiana on Super Tuesday III, ensuring him the majority of delegates from the primaries, more and more superdelegates began committing to him leading up to the June 3 contests. As a result, on June 3, Obama was declared the presumptive nominee that evening, with pledged delegates from Montana and South Dakota. Clinton conceded on June 7, urging her supporters to support Obama in the general election, and so no brokered convention resulted for the Democrats in 2008.

For the Republicans, a brokered convention was also forecast because of the number of strong candidates and their different geographic bases. The number of "winner take all" states benefits candidates with strong regional support. In addition, the weakened power of President Bush to force candidates out of the race results in fewer levels of influence for them.[9][10] With John McCain winning the majority of delegates on Super Tuesday and the subsequent withdrawal of his strongest challenger, Mitt Romney, the brokered convention was averted.

Brokered conventions today

Several factors encourage a clear and timely decision in the primary process.

First, candidates tend to get momentum as they go through the process because of the bandwagon effect. Thus, one or two candidates will be portrayed by the media to voters as the front runner(s) as a result of their placement in the first primaries and caucuses, and as also-ran candidates drop out, their supporters will tend to vote for the leaders.[11] Theorists have identified two types of political momentum, piecemeal and all-at-once, with different impacts on front-runners and those right behind them.[12]

Secondly, political parties wish to avoid the negative publicity from a brokered convention as well as to maximize the amount of time the nominee has to campaign for the presidency itself.

Especially on account of the desire to foster party unity in the months leading up to Election Day, it is considered possible if not probable that any "brokering" that may be required for a future presidential convention will actually take place in the weeks and months leading up to the convention, once it becomes clear that no candidate will likely secure a majority of delegates without an agreement with one or more rivals. Such an agreement would likely commit the front runner to make some form of concession(s) in return, such as selecting the former rival as his/her vice presidential nominee.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention

EXCLUSIVE: TIME Guide to Official 2016 Republican Nomination Calendar

Zeke J Miller @ZekeJMiller

Updated: Oct. 2, 2015 12:54 PM

Frederic J. Brown—AFP/Getty Images Republican presidential hopefuls (L-R), Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee , Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, real estate magnate Donald Trump, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, and former CEO Carly Fiorina, listen as retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson (C) speaks during the Presidential debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in Simi Valley, Calif., on Sept. 16, 2015.
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The 2016 Republican presidential race may turn into the most grueling campaign in two generations thanks to a series of rules and calendar changes instituted by the party in recent years.

The combination of a front-loaded calendar and the expansion of states splitting their delegates among candidates, means a nominee won’t be likely be known until the spring at the earliest, according to the Republican National Committee—and perhaps months later. If three or more candidates pick up a substantial share of the early delegates in the first month of voting, the race could go all the way to early June, if not the convention.

GOP state parties had until Oct. 1 to submit their delegate selection plans. The Republican Party gave TIME an exclusive look at what they entailed, providing the sharpest picture yet of what the next nine months of campaigning will look like.

Here’s your guide to the 2016 Republican Nomination:

Delegates to the convention: 2,470*

Delegates needed to win the nomination (50%+1): 1,236*

How many delegates does each state get?

In addition to its three national party representatives, each state is awarded 10 delegates, plus three for each congressional district. Additional ‘bonus’ delegates are awarded for the share of the Republican vote in the previous presidential election and for electing Republican governors, Senators, Representatives, and legislatures. Territories are awarded a set number of delegates according to the party rules.

Who determines how each state awards its delegates?

Each state party sets its own rules in consultation with the Republican National Committee.

What’s different from 2012?

First off, the sheer number of candidates (15!). Second, the RNC moved to condense the calendar, keeping the Iowa caucuses from encroaching on New Years and moving the convention into July, and the last primaries to early June. The thinking was this would prevent the drawn-out primary fight that weakened Mitt Romney last cycle. Additionally, more states moved their primaries and caucuses into early March in an effort to play a more significant role in the nominating process, and thereby receive more attention from candidates. But all states voting before March 15 must award their delegates proportionally (though each state interprets that to their own liking), a measure instituted by the RNC to keep the race competitive into March.

What does that mean?

The 2016 primary calendar is technically shorter, but more importantly, it will be way more intense than the 2012 race.

So, when will there be a nominee?

That depends. Senior RNC officials will only say they predict the race being decided sometime in the spring, but many Republican operatives believe that a nominee won’t be determined until May or perhaps later. The concern is that with so many delegates up for grabs on a proportional basis—more than in any other cycle—that it will take longer for any one candidate to get the requisite number.

You mean a contested convention?

That’s still very unlikely, but for all the reasons above is more likely to happen this year than at any point in recent memory.

But that sounds like fun.

It sure is exciting to game out. If no candidate secures the required number of delegates by the first ballot in Cleveland (through a combination of bound and unbound delegates), all bets are off, as most states release their pledged delegates at that point.

What is a bound (unbound) delegate?

A bound delegate is a person whose vote will be counted for the candidate they are pledged to regardless of what they actually do at the convention. Unbound delegates may be pledged by personal statements or even state law, but according to RNC rules, may cast their vote for anyone at the convention. Many members of the RNC are unbound by their state rules.

How are delegates bound? The RNC has instituted a new rule requiring states that have ‘presidential preference votes’ like primaries and caucuses to bind their delegates in accordance with the outcome of the voting. Because, democracy.

What about Rule 40? This obscure rule passed to prevent Paul from being nominated on the convention floor in 2012, requires that candidates win a majority of eight delegations to be entered into nomination and have their delegates counted. It is almost certain to be amended in the week leading up to the GOP convention, depending on circumstances. (For instance, the minimum could move higher, in the case of a clear nominee, or lower, if there’s a contested convention.)

Can you give me a detailed breakdown of the official calendar, including how each state will award its delegates? Yes. Read on. . .

The Four Early States:

These are the four “carve out” states that the Republican National Committee has permitted to vote in February. Delegates will be split among the candidates.

Iowa Caucuses (30 delegates): February 1, 2016 — Delegates awarded proportionally, rounded to the nearest whole number.
New Hampshire Primary (23 delegates, 20 bound): February 9, 2016 — Delegates awarded proportionally statewide to candidates earning at least 10% of the vote.
South Carolina Primary (50 delegates): February 20, 2016 — Delegates awarded as “winner take all” statewide and by congressional district.
Nevada Caucuses (30 delegates): February 23, 2016 — Delegates awarded proportionally

SuperDuper Tuesday: March 1, 2016 (Delegates/Bound delegates) 565 bound delegates

Also known as the ‘SEC Primary,’ more delegates are bound on this day than any other in the primary race, all by some form of proportional allocation.** Many of the states are deeply conservative, and are being eyed by candidates appealing to such voters as an opportunity to build momentum. But there will be plenty of opportunities for more moderate candidates to come away with delegates, and maybe some victories too.

Alabama Primary (50 total delegates/47 bound) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Alaska Caucuses (28/25) — Proportional with 13% threshold
Arkansas Primary (40/37) *— Proportional with 15% threshold
Georgia Primary (76) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Massachusetts Primary (42/39) — Proportional with 5% threshold
Minnesota Caucuses (38/35) — Proportional with 10% threshold
North Dakota Caucuses (28/0) — The state does not have a presidential preference poll and all delegates are officially unbound. Caucuses can be flexibly scheduled
Oklahoma Primary (43/40) — Proportional with 15% threshold
Tennessee Primary (58/55) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Texas Primary (155/152) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Vermont Primary (16/13) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Virginia Primary (49/46) — Proportional
Wyoming Caucuses (29/0) — The state does not have a presidential preference poll and all delegates are officially unbound

March 5, 2016 (145 bound delegates)

Kansas Caucuses (40) — Proportional with 10% threshold
Kentucky Caucuses (45/42) — Proportional with 5% threshold
Louisiana Primary (46/43) — Proportional with 20% threshold statewide, no threshold for congressional district delegates
Maine Caucuses (23/20) — Proportional with 10% threshold

March 6, 2016 (23 bound delegates)

Puerto Rico Primary (23) — Proportional with 20% threshold

March 8, 2016 (140 bound delegates)

Hawaii Caucuses (19/16) — Proportional
Idaho Primary (32) — Proportional with 20% threshold
Michigan Primary (59/56) — Proportional with 15% threshold
Mississippi Primary (39/36) — Proportional with 15% threshold

March 12, 2016 (19 bound delegates)

District of Columbia Convention (19) — Proportional with 15% threshold
Guam Convention (9/0) — Delegates elected at convention and unbound

Super Tuesday: March 15, 2016 (361 bound delegates)

This is the first day that states may begin to award delegates on a winner-take-all basis and where favorite sons are looking to score big. It’s also the date at which a majority (56%) of delegates will have been already bound—an important milestone that was reached nearly a month later in 2012.

Florida Primary (99) — Winner take all
Illinois Primary (69) — Statewide delegates are winner take all, congressional district delegates elected directly on ballot and bound as they declare
Missouri Primary (52/49) – Winner take all above 50%, otherwise winter take all by congressional district
North Carolina Primary (72/69) – Proportional
Northern Mariana Islands Caucuses (9) – Winner take all
Ohio Primary (66) –Winner take all

March 19, 2016 (9 bound delegates)

U.S. Virgin Islands (9) — Winner take all

March 22, 2016 (107 bound delegates)

American Samoa Convention (9) — Delegates elected and bound at convention
Arizona Primary (5 — Winner take all
Utah Caucuses (40) — Proportional with 15% threshold

Spring Break

After a month of intense voting, the calendar slows with just 134 delegates bound over the course of a month. This could sap candidates’ momentum, either elongating a close race for the nomination or forcing underperforming and underfunded candidates from the race before the home stretch.

April 5, 2016 (42 bound)

Wisconsin Primary (42) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district

April 9, 2016 (0 bound)

Colorado Convention (37/0) — Delegates elected at district and state conventions, and bound as they declare

April 19, 2016 (92 bound)

New York Primary (95/92) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Northeast Primary: April 26, 2016 (109 bound)

More moderate Republicans have an opportunity to be heard at a critical juncture.

Connecticut Primary (28/25) — Winner take all above 50%, otherwise proportional with 20% threshold statewide and winner take all by congressional district
Delaware Primary (16) — Winner take all
Maryland Primary (3 — Winner take all
Pennsylvania Primary (71/14) — Winner take all statewide, remaining delegates elected on ballot and unbound
Rhode Island Primary (19/16) — Proportional with 10% threshold

May 3, 2016 (54 bound)

Indiana Primary (57/54) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district

May 10, 2016 (67 bound)

Nebraska Primary (36) — Winner take all
West Virginia Primary (34/31) — Delegates elected directly on ballot and bound by preference

May 17, 2016 (25 bound)

Oregon Primary (28/25) — Proportional

May 27, 2016 (41 bound)

Washington Primary (44/41) — Proportional with 20% threshold

Last Call: June 7, 2016 (294 bound)

The final primary day, with a large crop of delegates up for grabs.

California Primary (172/169) — Winner take all statewide and by congressional district
Montana Primary (27) — Winner take all
New Jersey Primary (51) — Winner take all
New Mexico Primary (24/21) — Proportional with 15% threshold
South Dakota Primary (29/26) — Winner take all

THE CONVENTION: July 18, 2016 — Cleveland, Ohio

If no candidate has the required number of delegates on the first ballot, balloting will continue until a nominee emerges with a majority of delegates. Most delegates are freed from their bindings after the first ballot or if released by the candidate. Others are held for longer.

*Figure may increase slightly depending on outcome of Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi gubernatorial races and legislative races in Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.

**Some proportional allocations have been simplified for clarity.

http://time.com/4059030/republican-p...on-convention/

Note: where you see the Cool Smiley, that is an 8.

The Brokered Convention Blunder

Dec. 11 2015 4:36 PM

By planning for a contested convention, the RNC is playing right into Trump’s hands.
By Jamelle Bouie

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump.

Donald Trump, pictured in Raleigh, North Carolina, on Dec. 4, 2015, already seems to be laying groundwork for the idea that a contested convention would be unfair for him.

In their drive to stop Donald Trump—or contain him, at least—Republican leaders have forgotten the only lesson that matters here: Fear is the mind killer.

First—out of anxiety that Trump might partake in a third-party run—they tried to bind his hands with a pledge to support the eventual nominee. We’ll see if the goal of blocking an independent Trump run actually holds up. In the meantime, the pledge has done more to bind the GOP to Trump than the reverse; even after denouncing his plans as dangerous and authoritarian, key Republican leaders still say they’d support Trump if he wins the nomination. They’re stuck to Trump, and they don’t know how to escape.

Now they’re making another panicked move to try to unbind themselves. On Monday, report Robert Costa and Tom Hamburger for the Washington Post, more than 20 GOP officials and “leading figures in the party’s establishment” met for a dinner held by Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus, where they discussed the prospect of a “brokered convention.” The specific scenario under consideration was one in which Trump were to hold a “significant number of delegates” but not enough to win the nomination on the “first ballot,” when pledged delegates—people bound to their candidates—place their votes.

“[S]everal longtime Republican power brokers argued that if the controversial billionaire storms through the primaries, the party’s establishment must lay the groundwork for a floor fight in which the GOP’s mainstream wing could coalesce around an alternative,” wrote Costa and Hamburger. Likewise, one of the most prominent participants—Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell—acknowledged that “a deadlocked convention” was something “the party should prepare for.”

It’s worth saying, now, that the potential brokered convention is a perennial story. Each cycle, on either side, someone floats the idea of a floor fight for the nomination. And each cycle, it’s a moot point, as the primary ends with an unambiguous winner, whether it was Barack Obama in 2008 or Mitt Romney in 2012.

With that said, it’s remarkable to see actual Republican leaders hold a serious meeting on the question of a brokered convention, even if it grew out of a regular gathering of party officials. It shows real fear among GOP elites—fear that Trump could win the nomination, and destroy the Republican Party as they know it, or at least cost them the White House for another four years (to say nothing of what “Trumpism” might mean for future Republican politicians).

At least in the short term, the meeting was a bad move tactically. As mentioned, Republicans leaders don’t just have to fear a Trump nomination; their other nightmare is if Trump runs as an independent, taking votes from the Republican nominee and giving the election to the Democrats. If there’s anything that might encourage an independent Trump bid—or make one more palatable to his ostensibly Republican supporters—it would be the idea that the party is conspiring against him, undermining its own part of the pledge and empowering him to abandon the party, full stop.

Top Comment

A brokered convention would be terrible. People might actually start throwing chairs around. Instead of, you know, talking to them. More...

-nerdnam

176 Comments
Join In

Indeed, Trump already seems to be laying groundwork for the idea that a contested convention would be an unfair one to Trump. “I’ll be disadvantaged,” Trump told the Post last week. “My disadvantage is that I’d be going up against guys who grew up with each other, who know each other intimately, and I don’t know who they are, OK? That’s a big disadvantage. ... These kind of guys stay close. They all know each other. They want each other to win.”

Republicans accomplish nothing by discussing a brokered convention, and risk a future where Trump decides to cast the GOP aside for his own, third-party campaign. It’s a foolish play, born of fear. It’s much better to wait. Yes, Trump leads, but that doesn’t mean he’ll win votes. If Super Tuesday comes, and Trump is still ahead, then it will be time to panic. For now, however, the best bet for Republicans is to watch quietly and hopefully, and continue to back more mainstream candidates for the nomination.

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_a...hurts_gop.html

Superdelegate
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This article is about superdelegates in general. For a list of 2008 Democratic superdelegates, see List of Democratic Party (United States) superdelegates, 2008.
Ambox scales.svg

This article has been nominated to be checked for its neutrality. Discussion of this nomination can be found on the talk page. (February 2012)

A "superdelegate" or an "unpledged delegate" is a delegate to the Democratic National Convention or Republican National Convention that is seated automatically, based on their status as current (Republican and Democratic) or former (Democratic only) party leader or elected official. Other superdelegates are chosen during the primary season. All the superdelegates are free to support any candidate for the nomination. This contrasts with convention delegates that are selected based on the party primaries and caucuses in each U.S. state, in which voters choose among candidates for the party's presidential nomination.

Although "superdelegate" was originally coined and created to describe this type of Democratic delegate, the term has become widely used to describe these delegates in both parties,[1] even though it is not an official term used by either party.

For Democrats, superdelegates fall into two categories:

delegates seated based on other positions they hold, who are formally described (in Rule 9.A) as "unpledged party leader and elected official delegates"[2] (unpledged PLEO delegates); and
additional unpledged delegates selected by each state party (in a fixed predetermined number), who are formally described (in Rule 9.B) as "unpledged add-on delegates" and who need not hold any party or elected position before their selection as delegates.[2]

For Republicans, there are generally 3 unpledged delegates in each state, consisting of the state chairman and two RNC committee members.

A common criticism is that unpledged delegates could potentially swing the results to nominate a candidate that did not receive the majority of votes during the primaries.

Contents

1 Comparison to pledged delegates
2 History
3 In 2008
4 Criticism
5 References
6 External links

Comparison to pledged delegates

Democratic Party rules distinguish pledged and unpledged delegates. Pledged delegates are selected based on their announced preferences in the contest for the presidential nomination. In the party primary elections and caucuses in each U.S. state, voters express their preference among the contenders for the party's nomination for President of the United States. Pledged delegates supporting each candidate are chosen in approximate ratio to their candidate’s share of the vote. They fall into three categories: district-level pledged delegates (usually by congressional districts);[3] at-large pledged delegates; and pledged PLEO (Party Leaders and Elected Officials)[further explanation needed] delegates. In a minority of the states, delegates are legally required to support the candidate to whom they are pledged.[4] In addition to the states' requirements, the party rules state (Rule 12.J): "Delegates elected to the national convention pledged to a presidential candidate shall in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them."[2]

By contrast, the unpledged PLEO delegates (Rule 9.A) are seated without regard to their presidential preferences, solely by virtue of being current or former elected officeholders and party officials. Many of them have chosen to announce endorsements, but they are not bound in any way. They may support any candidate they wish, including one who has dropped out of the presidential race.[5] The other superdelegates, the unpledged add-on delegates (Rule 9.B), who need not be PLEOs, are selected by the state parties after some of the pledged delegates are chosen,[2] but they resemble the unpledged PLEO delegates in being free to vote as they wish.

Unpledged PLEO delegates should not be confused with pledged PLEOs. Under Rule 9.C, the pledged PLEO slots are allocated to candidates based on the results of the primaries and caucuses.[2] Another difference between pledged PLEOs and unpledged PLEOs is that there is a fixed number of pledged PLEO slots for each state, while the number of unpledged PLEOs can change during the campaign. Pledged PLEO delegates are not generally considered superdelegates.

The process of selecting Democratic Party delegates is described on the Democratic Party's website[citation needed].
History

After the 1968 Democratic National Convention, the Democratic Party made changes in its delegate selection process, based on the work of the McGovern-Fraser Commission. The purpose of the changes was to make the composition of the convention less subject to control by party leaders and more responsive to the votes cast during the campaign for the nomination.

Some Democrats believed that these changes had unduly diminished the role of party leaders and elected officials, weakening the Democratic tickets of George McGovern and Jimmy Carter. The party appointed a commission chaired by Jim Hunt, the then-Governor of North Carolina, to address this issue. In 1982, the Hunt Commission recommended and the Democratic National Committee adopted a rule that set aside some delegate slots for Democratic members of Congress and for state party chairs and vice chairs.[6] Under the original Hunt plan, superdelegates were 30% of all delegates, but when it was finally implemented for the 1984 election, they were 14%. The number has steadily increased, and today they are approximately 20%.[7]

In 1984 only state party chairs and vice chairs were guaranteed superdelegate status. The remaining spots were divided two ways. The Democrats in Congress were allowed to select up to 60% of their members to fill some of these spots. The remaining positions were left to the state parties to fill with priority given to governors and big-city mayors. In 1988, this process was simplified. Democrats in Congress were now allowed to select up to 80% of their members. All Democratic National Committee members and all Democratic governors were given superdelegate status. This year also saw the addition of the distinguished party leader category (although former DNC chairs were not added to this category until 1996, and former House and Senate minority leaders were not added until 2000). In 1992 was the addition of a category of unpledged "add-ons", a fixed number of spots allocated to the states, intended for other party leaders and elected officials not already covered by the previous categories. Finally, beginning in 1996, all Democratic members of Congress were given superdelegate status.[8]

In the 1984 election, the major contenders for the presidential nomination were Gary Hart and Walter Mondale. Each won some primaries and caucuses. Mondale was only slightly ahead of Hart in the total number of votes cast but won the support of almost all superdelegates and became the nominee.[9]

The superdelegates have not always prevailed, however. In the Democratic primary phase of the 2004 election, Howard Dean acquired an early lead in delegate counts by obtaining the support of a number of superdelegates before even the first primaries were held.[10] Nevertheless, John Kerry defeated Dean in a succession of primaries and caucuses and won the nomination.

In 1988, a study found that superdelegates and delegates selected through the primary and caucus process are not substantively different in terms of viewpoints on issues from each other. However, superdelegates are more likely to prefer candidates with Washington experience than outsider candidates.[11]

At the 2008 Democratic National Convention, the superdelegates made up approximately one-fifth of the total number of delegates. The closeness of the race between the leading contenders, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, led to speculation that the superdelegates would play a decisive role in selecting the nominee, a prospect that caused unease among some Democratic Party leaders.[12] Obama, however, won a majority of the pledged delegates[13] and of the superdelegates, and won the Democratic presidential nomination.[14]

In 2008

Main article: List of Democratic Party (United States) superdelegates, 2008
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At the 2008 Democratic National Convention, superdelegates cast approximately 823.5 votes, with fractions arising because superdelegates from Michigan, Florida, and Democrats Abroad are entitled to half a vote each. Of the superdelegates' votes, 745 are from unpledged PLEO delegates and 78.5 are from unpledged add-on delegates, although the exact number in each category is subject to events.

There is no fixed number of unpledged PLEO delegates. The number can change during the campaign as particular individuals gain or lose qualification under a particular category. The unpledged PLEO delegates are: all Democratic members of the United States Congress, Democratic governors, members of the Democratic National Committee, "[a]ll former Democratic Presidents, all former Democratic Vice Presidents, all former Democratic Leaders of the U.S. Senate, all former Democratic Speakers of the U.S. House of Representatives and Democratic Minority Leaders, as applicable, and all former Chairs of the Democratic National Committee." There is an exception, however, for otherwise qualified individuals who endorse another party’s candidate for President; under Rule 9.A, they lose their superdelegate status.[2] (In 2008, Senator Joe Lieberman of Connecticut endorsed Republican John McCain, which, according to the chairwoman of the Connecticut Democratic Party, resulted in his disqualification as a superdelegate.[15] Lieberman's status had, however, previously been questioned because, although he is a registered Democratic voter and caucuses with the Democrats, he won re-election as the candidate of the Connecticut for Lieberman Party and is listed as an "Independent Democrat".[16] The count for Connecticut's delegates in the state party's delegate selection plan, issued before his endorsement of McCain, appears to exclude Lieberman,[17][18][unreliable source?] and he was not included on at least one list of PLEO delegates prepared before his endorsement.[19])

The unpledged add-on delegate slots for the various states total 81, but the initial rule had been that the five unpledged add-on delegates from Michigan and Florida would not be seated, leaving 76 unpledged add-on delegates.[20] Michigan and Florida were being penalized for violating Democratic Party rules by holding their primaries too early.

As of February 13, 2008 one analysis found that the 2008 Democratic National Convention would have 794 superdelegates.[21] The exact number has changed several times because of events. For example, the number decreased as a result of the death of Representative Tom Lantos, the move from Maine to Florida of former Maine Governor Kenneth M. Curtis,[22][unreliable source?] and the resignation of New York Governor Eliot Spitzer. (Because New York's new Governor, David Paterson, is an at-large member of the Democratic National Committee, he was already a superdelegate before becoming Governor.[23]) On the other hand, the number increased when special elections for the House of Representative were won by Democrats Bill Foster, André Carson, Jackie Speier, and Travis Childers.[24][unreliable source?]

The biggest change came on May 31 as a result of the meeting of the national party's Rules and Bylaws Committee, which lessened the penalty initially imposed on Michigan and Florida. The party had excluded all delegates (including superdelegates) from either state. The Rules and Bylaws Committee voted to seat all these superdelegates (as well as the pledged delegates from those states) but with half a vote each.[25] That action added 55 superdelegates with 27.5 votes. The total number of superdelegates can continue to change until the beginning of the convention (Call to the Convention Section IV(C)(2)).

Pledged delegates from state caucuses and primaries will number 3,566, casting 3,409.5 votes, resulting in a total number of delegate votes of 4,233. A candidate needs a majority of that total, or (as of June 5) 2,117, to win the nomination.[26][27][unreliable source?] Superdelegates account for approximately one fifth (19.6%) of all votes at the convention. Delegates chosen in the Democratic caucuses and primaries account for approximately four-fifths (80.4%) of the Democratic convention delegates.[26][28]

The Politico found that about half of the superdelegates are white men, compared to 28% of the Democratic primary electorate.[29]

In the Republican Party, as in the Democratic Party, members of the party’s national committee automatically become delegates without being pledged to any candidate. In 2008, there are 123 members of the Republican National Committee among the total of 2,380 delegates to the 2008 Republican National Convention.[28] There are three RNC delegates (the national committeeman, national committeewoman, and state party chair) for each state.[30]
Criticism

The term "superdelegate" itself was used originally as a criticism of unpledged delegates. Susan Estrich argued that these delegates, who would be predominantly white and male, would have more power than other delegates because of their greater freedom to vote as they wish.[31]

The Democratic Party has faced accusations that it has been conducting its nominating process in an undemocratic way,[9][32][33] because superdelegates are generally chosen without regard to their preferences in the presidential race and are not obligated to support the candidate chosen by the voters.

Television commentator Dan Abrams has called it "troubling" that the superdelegates might decide the 2008 race, arguing, "Each of the superdelegates' votes is now equivalent to about 10,000 Democratic voters."[34] There are online petitions calling on the superdelegates to support the candidate who does best in the primaries and caucuses.[35] On the other hand, Geraldine Ferraro, who served on the Hunt Commission, defended the inclusion of superdelegates as being beneficial to the party; she argued that they should exercise independent judgment in voting for a presidential nominee.[36]

Delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses may not exactly reflect the votes cast, but Democratic party rules require proportional allocation rather than winner-take-all.[37]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superdelegate

I don't think Party bosses will ultimately try to stop Trump in any effective way. They may say a lot of stuff, but in the long run will give in. The ones I would worry more about are the religious members. I don't know how many young Evangelicals (or Catholics or Jews) are registered Republicans, but they've got very sensitive "social consciences" so their could be losses. OTOH, Trump could very well pick up lots of black voters, latino voters, lots of women voters, and definitely middle class whites. Arab voters----well maybe not so much.