Thread: What military options does Trump have in Syria?

What military options does Trump have in Syria?

Laura Smith Spark-Profile-Image
By Laura Smith-Spark, CNN
Updated 12:14 PM ET, Thu April 6, 2017

(CNN)US President Donald Trump faces perhaps his toughest foreign policy challenge yet amid calls for the United States to take a stand following a chemical attack on a rebel-held town in Syria that killed scores of civilians.

Trump said that Tuesday's attack "crossed a lot of lines" for him and that his "attitude towards Syria and Assad has changed very much." And Trump told some members of Congress that he's considering military action in Syria in response, a source familiar with the calls told CNN on condition of anonymity.

Trump has not yet spelled out what his administration will do, if anything. But inevitably, speculation is focused on whether he might embark on military action where former US President Barack Obama did not.

So what are the possible military options for the US in Syria?

Strategic airstrikes

The US could seek to carry out punitive airstrikes against Syrian military assets or even its leadership, said Justin Bronk, a research fellow in the military sciences team at the UK-based RUSI think tank.

But a major obstacle lies in the way: Russian air defense systems within Syria which effectively give Moscow control of the airspace over much of Syria.

Russia has been building up its air defenses in Syria since intervening in support of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in 2015, with bases in Hmeimim, Latakia and Tartus. It has moved advanced S-300 and S-400 missile defense systems into place and also has its own fighter jets to deploy.

Since it is highly unlikely that Russia would allow US strikes against its ally, the US would have to use stealth aircraft such as the F-22 or B-2 Spirit to try to evade detection by the Russian air defenses, said Bronk. That would be a very expensive option with a limited number of aircraft available.

If strikes went ahead, potential targets could include military depots, storage sites or Syrian air defenses, Bronk said.
A complicating factor is that Russian specialists could be embedded with Syrian forces, he said. The Trump administration would have to weigh whether it is willing to risk any Russian casualties, given the potential to escalate hostilities.

Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov warned in October against any strikes from the air against Syrian troops
.
"Operators of Russian air defense systems won't have time to identify the origin of airstrikes, and the response will be immediate," he told reporters. "Any illusions about 'invisible' jets will inevitably be crushed by disappointing reality."

"With the Russian military as a dominant power in Syria, the options for the United States are limited," said Ambassador Nicholas Burns, former US Under Secretary for Political Affairs and now professor of international politics at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government.

"In 2013, I think President Obama should have used American air power against the Syrian Air Force. It would have taken away the ability to use chemical weapons against their population. That was an opportunity that was missed nearly three-and-a-half years ago."

Daniel Serwer, director of the Conflict Management Program at Johns Hopkins University, said the US could explore a number of options.

These could include identifying and destroying the aircraft or artillery involved in launching the chemical weapons, or launching an air attack on the Syrian and allied ground forces advancing on opposition-controlled areas, he said.

"So far, Donald Trump has said this cannot be ignored by the civilized world, but has done nothing," Serwer said, adding that "Trump's failure to act is a green light for Assad to do as he likes."

Cruise missiles

Back in August 2013, Obama considered deploying cruise missiles against command and control targets in Syria, as well as chemical weapon launchers, US officials told CNN at the time. Shortly after, however, Syria agreed to a Russian proposal to relinquish its chemical weapons, leading Obama to retreat from threats of military action.

Two years earlier, US and allied forces had carried out missile strikes against Libyan air defense and other military targets in an intervention that aided Libyan rebels as they fought the forces of strongman leader Moammar Gadhafi.

Both Russia and the US have previously used cruise missiles to strike inside Syria, said Bronk, but they are less useful for hitting moving targets and carry a greater risk that they will go astray and kill civilians.

"Particularly with the recent collateral damage-heavy attacks that the US has conducted in Iraq and Syria, that's already a very sensitive topic," he said. "Whether the Trump administration particularly worries about that or wants to take a harder approach to how many civilian casualties are justified ... is open to question."

'No-fly' zone

There could be talk of the US imposing "no-fly" zones on the Syrian air forces, said Bronk, but this would again largely depend on whether the Russians want to play ball.

The Russian air forces in Syria fly a lot of the same aircraft as their Syrian counterparts, he said, which makes identifying who is in the air very difficult even with advanced radar.

"A no-fly zone would either mean the Russians in effect agreeing to constrain and turn on their own ally or the United States accepting that it's basically unenforceable -- unless they are willing to risk shooting down Russian aircraft, of course, which again seems unlikely."

Safe zones

The US could go forward with a plan to declare and defend safe areas, said Serwer, of Johns Hopkins University.
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said last month that the administration backs the idea of creating "interim zones of stability" within Syria where refugees could go. But he didn't offer any detail on a plan that would require defending those zones, and therefore heighten the risk of military clashes with Russia.

The Obama administration had hesitated to establish "safe zones" because of the military commitment required to defend such areas from Syrian government forces and the possibility of a run-in with Russian forces.

Safe zones also would not have a great punitive effect on Syria and would be expensive and difficult to enforce, said Bronk.

Tillerson is due to meet with his Russian counterpart, Sergey Lavrov, next week in Moscow for talks likely to be dominated by Syria.

Sen. Gary Peters, a Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, told CNN that it is "time to take a very strong stand against Assad" and that the Syrian President "simply cannot stay there." After Assad is pushed out, through pressure from the international community, the provision of safe zones would give the Syrian people some security and stability, he said.

Ground forces

US Special Operations Forces, Marines and Army Rangers are on the ground in Syria, US officials told CNN last month. US forces are supporting local fighters as they prepare to launch an assault on Raqqa, the self-declared capital of ISIS in northern Syria.

However, it is "extremely unlikely" that there would be any kind of large scale US boots-on-the-ground operation as seen in Iraq in 2003, said Bronk, "because I think even the Trump administration would be able to see that that would lead to an endless quagmire, not to mention (the US) would be invading areas where Russian forces hold ground."

He added, "Russia has sent a lot of signals on the military-to-military level that it really isn't messing around in Syria."

Republican Sen. Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told CNN that "obviously the United States doesn't want to get sucked into some long ground war, but there are ways that we can send signals to Assad and I'm sure those plans are being developed."

CNN's Barbara Starr, Dana Bash, Matthew Chance, Richard Roth, Nicole Gaouette and Miranda Green contributed to this report.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/04/06/politi...itary-options/

Listen up, there are NO US MILITARY OPTIONS IN SYRIA. To carry on about this attack or whatever in the hell it is or was or who did it or how they did it, is being babies. We've killed far more Syrians with our drone and airstrikes. None of this even looks like a chemical attack to me. The people look hurt from airstrikes. The victims are rebel sympathizers and ISIS. So beware the source of the stories. There are differing stories about what time the bombs were dropped, many inconsistencies. No American needs to set foot in Syria. No American plane needs to fly over Syria. No American equipment needs to enter Syria. No engagement into Syria by Americans.

Call the Russians, find out what they know and ask them to investigate and make sure that the Assad government is not involved in chemical warfare or if by chance they were, to stop it. Call the Saudis, UAE and Iran, and tell them to call Assad and find out what actually happened and tell them never to use chemical weapons, because it violates the UN rules.

You can not trust the statements of the rebels and ISIS. You can not trust the statements by Turkey. You can not trust the statements that are politically motivated by the very groups and parties who are opposed to Assad and want to topple his government. These are not reliable sources, not even the victims who are opposed to Assad and part of the rebel movement to overthrow him and his government. We can not stand for that. If you think what is bad now in Syria, just wait until Assad is gone. It will become an ISIS state.

Originally Posted by Judy

Listen up, there are NO US MILITARY OPTIONS IN SYRIA. To carry on about this attack or whatever in the hell it is or was or who did it or how they did it, is being babies. We've killed far more Syrians with our drone and airstrikes. None of this even looks like a chemical attack to me. The people look hurt from airstrikes. The victims are rebel sympathizers and ISIS. So beware the source of the stories. There are differing stories about what time the bombs were dropped, many inconsistencies. No American needs to set foot in Syria. No American plane needs to fly over Syria. No American equipment needs to enter Syria. No engagement into Syria by Americans.

Call the Russians, find out what they know and ask them to investigate and make sure that the Assad government is not involved in chemical warfare or if by chance they were, to stop it. Call the Saudis, UAE and Iran, and tell them to call Assad and find out what actually happened and tell them never to use chemical weapons, because it violates the UN rules.

You can not trust the statements of the rebels and ISIS. You can not trust the statements by Turkey. You can not trust the statements that are politically motivated by the very groups and parties who are opposed to Assad and want to topple his government. These are not reliable sources, not even the victims who are opposed to Assad and part of the rebel movement to overthrow him and his government. We can not stand for that. If you think what is bad now in Syria, just wait until Assad is gone. It will become an ISIS state.

Judy, thanks for your post. I heartily agree.

However ...

Call the Saudis, UAE and Iran, and tell them to call Assad and find out what actually happened and tell them never to use chemical weapons, because it violates the UN rules.

The problem here is that Muslim countries care nothing for UN rules about combat. Under Islam, anything goes as far as warfare is concerned. I could care less about Muslim children or civilians being killed in warfare, because under Islam, it is perfectly acceptable to hide weapons, soldiers and combat centers behind women and children in war. It is also acceptable to employ children in actual combat. In the Iraq-Iran War when Saddam Hussein was still in power, both sides used chemical weapons and Iran employed child soldiers in the field of combat. Similar behavior is found among Palestinian terrorists and combatants and in Palestinian controlled Israel.

Assad represents a sect within Islam that represents that most native part of Syria, (besides whatever Christians are left who predate Islam in Syria) and is probably considered apostate by both Sunni and Shi'i Muslims and we know how they feel about each other. Anything that leverages Muslim belief against itself is good foreign policy.

Oh, yes, I'm sure you're right about that. That takes US back to Russia. To me, Russia is key to both resolving Syria and North Korea. Everyone seems to think China is the one to solve North Korea, they aren't. I guess they think because China is Asian they have more clout with them, but North Korea idolizes Russia, not China. Russia is the key to disarming North Korea's nuclear program and ending the civil war in Syria. Russia is even key to straightening out Iran.

To me, Russia is the most important country on the planet to the United States and the world right now.

I think Trump meets with Putin shortly. I thought it was being set-up for May. I wish they would make it sooner. We need to get this new alliance on down the road and quick.

Judy wrote (excerpt):

Call the Russians, find out what they know and ask them to investigate and make sure that the Assad government is not involved in chemical warfare or if by chance they were, to stop it. Call the Saudis, UAE and Iran, and tell them to call Assad and find out what actually happened and tell them never to use chemical weapons, because it violates the UN rules.

Do you honestly think Putin, Assad's partner, is really going to be forthright on anything he finds out, knows, or reveals regarding Assad's use of Sarin gas? Such a thought is void of reality. Furthermore, Assad has crossed the line before, has again, and will in the future. A simple warning obviously hasn't been enough in the past or present and it won't work in the future. I don't know what the proper response should be, but it certainly shouldn't be sitting on our hands like Obama had done.

The victims are rebel sympathizers and ISIS

I seriously doubt babies and small children are sympathizers. You don't even know for a fact that all of the adults were sympathizers. It sure would be nice if our government and other foreign governments had the intelligence gathering abilities you seem to have.

Yes, I trust the Russians far more than I trust Syrian Rebels who started this gawd damn war, who handed over all our weapons and money to ISIS, who have violated every cease-fire agreement in Syria, who have run like cowards from their own country and a war they started to flood the rest of the world with their craziness, and who want to overthrow the Assad government so they can put in their Radical Muslim-Based Government.

You don't need military or CIA intelligence to know the aluminum rods were not evidence of WMD's in Iraq and that these people were not victims of Sarin poisoning or any other chemical warfare. They were victims of an airstrike that blew up their own rebel munitions factory that alas, had some bad chemicals stored in it. They were injured, made sick or killed by their own stuff.

The Assad government is secular. That is the government the US wants. We do not want Muslim-based governments. Or we shouldn't want Muslim-based governments. Tragically that's what our "intervention" did in Afghanistan and Iraq. NO MORE.

Support Assad and demand a cease-fire. Stop funding the Rebels. Let Russia handle it. Whatever, just stay the hell out of Syria. No money, no weapons, no troops.

President Trump, you must not fall for this trap. This is a McCain, Graham, Syrian Rebel, CIA-ISIS-backed trap. You stand by your non-interventionist stance. Do not fall for this and embroil US in another gawd damn friggin' war in the Middle East. Don't do it.

We do nothing militarily or otherwise. Except to get out, stop stirring the pot and stop funding either - or in some instances, both sides.

Yes, this is in Russia's back yard. They are familiar with the situation. Talk to them, but quietly and secretly and be ready to help pay for repairing the damage we caused. I want to heavily tax all those politicians who voted for this, the weapons manufacturers who lobbied for this and made tons of money. Let's take a goodly share of their ill gotten gains - first.

As to rules of war - think about that phrase for a moment.

War, it seems to me, is an all out fight to stay alive and hope you win if you stay alive. It is humanity loosing all humanity. It is an all out descent into depravity, murder and mayhem. It is the very absence of any rules or laws.

So they try to convince us they can make 'rules' for this horror. That way it makes us think (kinda) that's it's only a little worse than Friday Night Football.

How can you make rules for fighting a war? Each country could decide how far they are willing to go, and hope their soldiers can abide by that - but for the world to attempt to put some 'rules' to this carnage is just ridiculous.

You can't use poison gas - it's inhumane.

You can drop bombs that burn and sometimes kill immediately - sometimes death takes a while.

You can use uranium depleted weapons that cause birth defects for future generations.

Rules with no rhyme or reason -

We do see the children chanting, holding knives,etc. Maybe they do use children - I know they did in Vietnam. I also know/knew a soldier that had to act in such a situation. He died from alcoholism - he was destroyed from that day forward.
So I'm not doubting it altogether.

But I remember during WWII, when children had wooden guns they used to shoot the Nazis or Japs. Many young children had miniature uniforms like their Daddies. My twin stepbrothers had navy uniforms in their sizes. We all marched and sang and drilled.

What could be made of videos of that.

We had better care about the children - we must. Millstones around the neck and lakes comes to mind there.

Boy we have been brainwashed, haven't we?

Yes, most of our nation has been incredibly brainwashed. Hopefully, people will start waking up and see their own manipulation by a Corrupt Media, a Corrupt Intelligence Community and several Corrupt Members of Congress.

President Trump: JUST SAY NO!

WAR CRIMES


Assad Hanged Thousands in Syrian Dungeons

Shocking new Amnesty report shows yet again the Syrian regime’s cruelty.
ALEX ROWELL

02.07.17 2:27 PM ET

Once or twice a week, the guards at the Saydnaya military prison in Damascus Province, 35km northeast of Bashar al-Assad’s presidential palace, hold what they call “the party”.

This event, which is evidently the highlight of the day, involves bussing between 20 and 50 blindfolded, starved, and tortured prisoners to the in-house gallows to be hanged after a sham “trial” typically lasting between one and three minutes. In most cases, this marks the grisly end of the road for those put through the human meat grinder of Saydnaya, and their corpses are promptly tossed onto trucks (dubbed “meat fridges” by the prison authorities) to be taken for burial in mass graves on state-owned land on the capital’s outskirts. The exceptions are those inmates whose bodies have been so thoroughly wasted by beatings, malnutrition, and illness that their weight isn’t sufficient to kill them. After spending fifteen minutes suspended on the noose, still alive, these people are yanked downward so as to break their necks by men employed by the state for this purpose.

The above are only some of the findings of a new 48-page Amnesty International report, released Tuesday, based on a full year’s investigation during which the human rights organization interviewed four former Saydnaya employees, 31 former Saydnaya detainees, and scores of former Syrian judges, doctors, lawyers, and others with direct knowledge of what went on (and still does). Based on the evidence collected, Amnesty estimates between 5,000 and 13,000 were exterminated in this fashion between September 2011 and December 2015 – and “there is no reason to believe that executions have stopped” since. (These are separate from the thousands of other killings in regime custody previously documented by the military defector codenamed “Caesar”).

While accounts of these deaths are grim enough, the descriptions of life inside Saydnaya are hardly more pleasant, and indeed interviewees told Amnesty death was seen as a deliverance (“It was a gift to be killed […] we were wishing to die,” as one put it). A typical first day in the prison was marked by a “severe” beating known as the “welcome party,” which could in itself be lethal. “All you see is blood: your own blood, the blood of others,” recalled one survivor. Thereafter one continued to be subjected to an “unrelenting” program of torture for as long as one was inside, ranging from beatings to electrocutions to sexual assaults. The Iraqi dissident Kanan Makiya marveled in his 1993 work Cruelty and Silence that the Saddam Hussein regime employed men expressly for the purpose of raping women (“violation of women’s honor” was the official job description). The Assad regime arguably goes one further by paying guards at Saydnaya to force prisoners to rape one another.

When they weren’t being savagely beaten, inmates were suffering from the no-less-destructive effects of food and water deprivation. “The thirst was indescribable […] we would lick the condensation from the wall […] by the ninth day, people started drinking their own urine,” one told Amnesty. The combination of this with the violence inevitably led to medical afflictions, from tuberculosis to scabies to gangrene. Needless to say, no medical care was offered; in fact, “When the doctors came, they would torture the detainees instead of helping them.”

And there can be no doubt, say Amnesty, that this was and is happening with Assad’s full knowledge.






For one thing, each victim is issued a formal death sentence by the Military Field Court, signed by the Grand Mufti (the same man recently given the honor of addressing the Irish parliament), as well as either the Minister of Defense or the Army Chief of Staff. Amnesty in fact wrote to the Syrian regime on 10 January, 2017, “requesting clarifications” regarding its findings, and unsurprisingly received no response. Accordingly, Amnesty concludes Damascus is implicated in multiple violations of international law, including crimes against humanity, and calls on UN Security Council members and those states supporting Assad –“in particular Russia, with its permanent seat on the Security Council, and Iran” – to “do what is in their power to bring [the crimes] to an end.”

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...-dungeons.html