Thread: CBO - Illegal alien reduces net flow by 1/4th

The revised CBO seems to say that illegal immigration will only be reduced by 1/4th. Considering how many legal immigrants this bill will let in and the cost of the bill, it sure sounds like a non-enforcement rip off to me.

If they can't secure the borders for real - they should just say they are not able or willing, declare an emergency and let the citizens know its time to protect the country the government has failed so miserably to protect.

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdoc.cfm?index=8179&type=1

The Congressional Budget Office CBO) released it's cost assessment document today June 4, 2007 for the Comprehensive Immigration Reform legislation and stated:

CBO and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) estimate that the legislation would exert a relatively small net effect on the federal budget balance over the next two decades, since additional expenditures would be mostly offset by additional revenue. In addition, CBO estimates that enacting this legislation would increase the population in the United States by about 1.8 million residents by 2017. By 2027, the net change in the population would be negligible.

Estimated Costs, 2008-2017
CBO and JCT estimate that enacting this legislation would:
• Increase federal direct spending by $10 billion over the 2008-2012 period and by $23 billion over the 2008-2017 period. Most of those outlays would be for refundable income tax credits and Medicaid.
• Increase federal revenues by $15 billion over the 2008-2012 period and by $48 billion over the 2008-2017 period. That increase would stem largely from greater receipts of Social Security payroll taxes, which are classified as off-budget.

Don't believe this for a minute. This is in direct conflict with The Heritage Foundation's calculations of the cost of illegal immigration and it's effect on our economy. Basically, the CBO and JCT are stating this legislation has no negative effect on our economy, our workforce or our population levels and further states it's a benefit to all three. I holding out hope that a non-governmental assessment agency can shoot holes in this.

Under Effects of Enforcement and Verification on Net Flow of Unauthorized Migrants

"CBO estimates that those measures would reduce the net annual flow of unauthorized immigrants by one-quarter"

So it sounds to me like they are saying that unauthorized immigrants will only be reduced by 1/4th annually.

That isn't good for the price of this bill, especially if price is measured in more then dollars.

The report also says the net cost would grow after 2017 as more affected immigrants became eligible for benefits and the per capita cost of benefits rose ...

Notice that it also says for the years 2008-2017 - increases in federal revenues stem largely from greater receipts of Social Security payroll taxes, which are classified as off-budget.

The costs for the Social Security payroll taxes do not come into play until after they become eligible for benefits.

Just to let others know. I called Senator Durbin's office and talked to his staffer on immigration.

He looked at the part on only stop one quarter and agreed it was only 1/4 enforcement would stop
He then tried to say but that is hundreds of thousands
I explained I knew how to do the math, and that mean that 3 times what were being stopped would still be getting through - not very good enforcement.
He said he would be sure to point out that the enforcement number was low to Durbin, that Durbin was not yet committed to supporting this bill.

If the citizens know that this great compromise bill is only going to stop 1/4th the illegal immigrants they majority really will not see any benefit to the bill at all.