Thread: Comments on Delegate Breakdown (expanded from Malkin)

Originally Posted by Bowman

Originally Posted by PhredE

Originally Posted by Bowman

Why is MO leaning McCain? They should be leaning Romney.

Ah, thanks Bowman. I was borrowing from Michelle Malkin's current list - she has McPain favored there. A leaning toward Romney would be a VERY GOOD thing considering the volatility of CA and GA and their delegate break-out.

If we could flip MO to Romney then Romney would win Super Tuesday without having to win all the CA and GA delegates, he would only need 60% of them which it appears he now has. So how can we bombard MO today?

Great question Bowman. I don't know what our ability/resources/time/etc are like today collectively, but, this should be a priority to help make the swing.

W: Are you tuned in here?

Any representation in MO monitoring as well??? We need you today big time!

Originally Posted by SOSADFORUS

FOX news just reported......

in Cal. Mc Cain 38 /Romney 38 thats close and better than behind, looks like Romney has a great chance, I think Californians are fed up!!

Your damn right we are fed up, and don't believe that 38/38 from Fox news.

Originally Posted by PhredE

IF CA were a 'winner-take-all' state and Romney were to win, bingo - big score! However, since it isn't, then the delegates awarded at the end will probably end up being roughly proportional to the votes cast.

Yes, in CA it will probably end up being 60% Romney, 40% McCain. Which is why we need MO for Romney to win tomorrow!

See, this is why I was asking in another thread here if you guys think that it is going to boil down to McPain and Romney. And if so, should we just abandon Huck and Paul and back up Romney NOW? Isn't this splintering just helping McPain win?

btw, I emailed all my friends and family in CA yesterday to vote for Romney if they were registered Repubs. And to those who were registered Dems, I told them I am praying for their souls. LOL.

My analysis based on FredE's first post if we can flip MO:

Current totals (2/3/08 - approximate, from memory...)

McCain: 93
Romney: 72
Huckster: 28
Paul: 6

==============

"Leaning McPain" - (Winner-Takes-All States)
NY: 101
AZ: 53
NJ: 52
CT: 30
DE: 18
-------
254

"Leaning Romney" (Winner-Takes-All States)
UT: 36
MT: 25
MA: 41
MO: 58
----------
160

Leaning Romney (Not Winner-Takes-All though)
70% Romney, 30% McCain
(+CA): 173
(+GA): 72
----------
171 Romney
74 McCain

----------------

Up-for-grabs (Not Winner-Takes-All)
IL: 70 (30/30; 10)
TN: 55 (20/20; 15)
AL: 48 (18/18; 12)
CO: 46 (20/20; 6)
MN: 40 (18/18; 4)
OK: 41 (15/15; 11)
WV: 30 (12/12; 6)
AK: 29 (13/13; 3)
ND: 26 (12/12; 2)
================
Assume an even near-50/50 split for Romney/McPain + some going to Huck, Paul - (Approx. estimates ONLY here...):

Romney: 158 / 158 McPain: (Combined Other: 69 )


=====================================

Combining Above totals for 'final' estimate:

McPain: 93 + 254 + 159 + 74 -> 580
Romney: 72 + 160 + 159 + 171 ->562

McCain would still be ahead in delegates but Romney would win super Tuesday and have the momentum!

Originally Posted by Ex_OC

See, this is why I was asking in another thread here if you guys think that it is going to boil down to McPain and Romney. And if so, should we just abandon Huck and Paul and back up Romney NOW? Isn't this splintering just helping McPain win?

Not exactly, Numbers USA suggested voting for whoever the non-McCain poll leader is in your state. For example in Arkansas vote for Huckaby because he is leading Romney there. That is better than letting McCain win, then before the convention we put the pressure on Huckaby to give his delegates to Romney. At least that is how I think it would work.

Thanks Bowman. ....meant to get back here to do that but haven't had the time to do a thorough update... much appreciated

That's exactly how I would have updated the numbers as well.
Overall, it's still going to be a close race. Maybe we should do a full court press to get Huckabee to quit (under the assumption his delegates would go to Romney..[possibly erroneous, I know...).

Originally Posted by Bowman

Originally Posted by Ex_OC

See, this is why I was asking in another thread here if you guys think that it is going to boil down to McPain and Romney. And if so, should we just abandon Huck and Paul and back up Romney NOW? Isn't this splintering just helping McPain win?

Not exactly, Numbers USA suggested voting for whoever the non-McCain poll leader is in your state. For example in Arkansas vote for Huckaby because he is leading Romney there. That is better than letting McCain win, then before the convention we put the pressure on Huckaby to give his delegates to Romney. At least that is how I think it would work.

Thanks, Bowman. This is so confusing. But that sounds like a good plan. I don't care if Romney or Huck wins, JUST THAT MCCAIN DOESN'T!!

Huck won't quit until McCain tells him to

At this point he has no business even being in the race
except to be helping McCain