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  1. #1
    Senior Member Dixie's Avatar
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    Delegates and what it takes to win the Republican Nomination

    I'm going to focus on the Republicans.

    To become the nominee for president, the candidate must be nominated by the majority of delegates attending the Republican National Convention in Sept. 2008. Source: CNN

    A Republican candidate must win 1191 Delegates (a majority) to be nominated.

    McCain so far has only obtained
    57 from Florida
    7 from New Hampshire
    19 from South Carolina.
    83 Total

    Romney
    9 from Wyoming
    24 from Michigan
    18 from Nevada
    51 Total

    Huckabee
    17 from Iowa

    Florida was a big one, but not earth moving.

    Really, if you take Florida out, Romney was ahead of McCain in the Delegate collection race.

    Let's not loose our heads over this yet, Super Tuesday is our big one and I don't think McCain can win many of those states, just like he didn't in his 2000 bid for president.

    Dixie
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  2. #2
    Senior Member Bowman's Avatar
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    Re: Delegates and what it takes to win the Republican Nomina

    Quote Originally Posted by Dixie
    Let's not loose our heads over this yet, Super Tuesday is our big one and I don't think McCain can win many of those states, just like he didn't in his 2000 bid for president.
    Dixie
    I sure hope you are right, I know he will probably do well in CA. As usual here in CA the Republicans have really screwed things up, they appoint delegates by Congressional district. Because all the non-citizens are put in the liberal "Democrat" districts, we have a lot more "Democratic" districts than "Republican" districts. I suspect a good chunk of those liberal districts will vote for McCain. And since there are more of those districts McCain will probably end up with more CA delegates than Romney, even though Romney might be the favorite of half of CA Republicans. Also that idiot Huckaby will probably take votes away from Romney, giving even more districts to McCain.
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  3. #3
    Senior Member patbrunz's Avatar
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    IMHO, McAmnesty will win on Super Tuesday and get the nomination if some conservatives don't stop voting for candidates, who may be good people and have some good ideas, but have no chance of winning. If the conservative votes continue to get siphoned off from Romney to non-viable candidates, Mcamnesty will win.

    Please don't flame me, this is not intended to be an attack on any candidate, except McAmnesty or the Huckster. All the other candidates are good people and have some good ideas, but they just have not been able to pull in the votes.
    All that is necessary for evil to succeed is that good men do nothing. -Edmund Burke

  4. #4
    Senior Member BearFlagRepublic's Avatar
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    The most recent #s I saw on CA had McAmnesty up 2 pts over Romney. Similar #s in New York. The reason why I think Florida is so huge is not the delegate count, but the momentum that McAmnesty will get while he already leads the Super Tuesday states. Plus the pull out of Rudy, and his endorsement of McAmnesty. I'm not trying to be negative, its just the way it looks. But I will cross my fingers. I might even get out and vote for Mitt -- something I said I would not do.....
    Serve Bush with his letter of resignation.

    See you at the signing!!

  5. #5
    Senior Member Bowman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by patbrunz
    IMHO, McAmnesty will win on Super Tuesday and get the nomination if some conservatives don't stop voting for candidates, who may be good people and have some good ideas, but have no chance of winning. If the conservative votes continue to get siphoned off from Romney to non-viable candidates, Mcamnesty will win.
    I agree with you there. I don't think McCain will get enough delegates to take the nomination on Tuesday, but will get more than anyone else. Actually right now Huckaby is the biggest spoiler in the race, he is taking conservative votes from Romney. Can we at least get Gilchrist to stop working to get McCain elected?

    I think Republicans who support Ron Paul will switch to Romney, but independents will still vote for Ron Paul because they are not inclined to support a major party candidate anyway.
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  6. #6
    Senior Member Nicole's Avatar
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    Great post Dixie. Although "Super Tuesday" is 6 days away and 6 days is not normally a long time-in politics that is a long time. Think of all the things that can happen in that time. That leaves time for McCain to say or do something to expose the "real" McCain to people who currently do not see the "real" McCain. I am hoping for a "Howard Dean moment" between now and then.

    I wonder if this tax stimulus package and the "possibility" of illegals receiving checks might bring out more discussion on immigration. Hopefully this will help to show McCain for who he is as well.

    I will be interested to see how the dynamics of the debate are different tonight with Rudi no longer there.

    I am not ready to throw in the towel now. This is far from over. Remember, even though the MSM has buried it, Romney was leading in delegates until last night.

    I am not ready to give up. Everyone here needs to push forward and get out the word on the true McCain. I am upset that McCain won last night but it is far from over.


    Nicole

  7. #7
    Senior Member Populist's Avatar
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    Hewitt's take:

    Wednesday, January 30, 2008
    Super Tuesday Math: Far, Far From Over
    Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 9:39 AM

    CNN puts McCain with 97 delegates and Romney at 74.

    Let's look at the worst case for Romney on Super Tuesday.

    Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58 ), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18 ) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.)

    Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 51 delegates.

    Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain's got 409 delegates and Romney's got 126.

    Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.

    States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:

    California 173
    Georgia 72
    Illinois 70
    Tennessee 55
    Alabama 48
    Colorado 46
    Massachusetts 41
    Minnesota 40
    Oklahoma 41
    West Virginia 30
    Alaska 29
    North Dakota 26

    Total 671

    If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.

    Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:

    McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.

    It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.

    Start looking hard at the numbers and put yourself in the discussions with Team Romney. It isn't pretty, but it is far, far from over.

    And if the Huckabee voters look at the reality and see they are voting for McCain when they vote for Huck, anything can happen.

    http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog
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  8. #8
    Senior Member Bowman's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BearFlagRepublic
    The most recent #s I saw on CA had McAmnesty up 2 pts over Romney.
    If the delegates were pro-rated based on the above they would both get about the same number of delegates, but with the way the idiots in CA have the system set up, McCain will probably get 2/3rds of the delegates. The CA Republican Party is run by Globalists, just look at Arnold!
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  9. #9
    TheOstrich's Avatar
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    I don't think that too many Ron Paul Republicans will switch to Romney, as long as Dr. Paul is in the race. Ron Paul supporters, from any party, are supporting him because he is so much different (in a positive way) than the Establishment Candidates.

    Those 57 Delegates for McCain aren't awarded to him yet. My understanding is that from Feb 6th to Apr 30th, in various Delegate Selection Caucuses, those Delegates will be selected, and they won't necessarily go to McCain. I'm still learning this process (it seems to vary from state to state) but I think that that's how it works.

    By the way, Paul has 6 Delegates so far. Guiliani only had 2.

    Just keep voting your conscience...never vote for the lesser of two evils.

    Ostrich

  10. #10
    Senior Member Saki's Avatar
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    What has potential to really hurt Romney is Huckabee's continued presence in the race. He will likely siphon off a lot of conservative votes in the deep South as he did in Florida.

    I heard something interesting the other night about McCain. He will be in Little Rock on Super Tuesday for a yet to be disclosed reason. There's speculation that Huckabee and McCain have had "discussions" and, perhaps, made a deal of sorts. This seems credible given McCain isn't expected to do too well in Arkansas, hence, there's little reason to visit from that standpoint. Leading credence to this is something I heard a Washington Post reporter say on MSNBC earlier. He was asked by an anchor if he'd heard any rumors of a McCain-Huckabee deal( presumably to knock Romney out of the race on Super Tuesday). The reporter said he wouldn't be surprised, although he couldn't confirm it. He went on to say that if it's true, it would garner a lot of media attention.

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