Thread: Delegates and what it takes to win the Republican Nomination

Originally Posted by Saki

What has potential to really hurt Romney is Huckabee's continued presence in the race. He will likely siphon off a lot of conservative votes in the deep South as he did in Florida.

I heard something interesting the other night about McCain. He will be in Little Rock on Super Tuesday for a yet to be disclosed reason. There's speculation that Huckabee and McCain have had "discussions" and, perhaps, made a deal of sorts. This seems credible given McCain isn't expected to do too well in Arkansas, hence, there's little reason to visit from that standpoint. Leading credence to this is something I heard a Washington Post reporter say on MSNBC earlier. He was asked by an anchor if he'd heard any rumors of a McCain-Huckabee deal( presumably to knock Romney out of the race on Super Tuesday). The reporter said he wouldn't be surprised, although he couldn't confirm it. He went on to say that if it's true, it would garner a lot of media attention.

Yep, that is exactly what I heard. That McCain is urging Knucklehead to stay in the race and take votes from Romney. In exchange he will offer him the VP.

McCain/Huckabee 08

That is a ticket that will go down in flames. That's the ugliest Republican ticket that ALIPAC can imagine. It will hasten the destruction of the Republican party.

I just thought of something....Perhaps the Gilchrist endorsement was intended to help McAmnesty, rather than Knucklehead. If the plan was to get McCain the White House, and Knucklehead the VP, maybe they were working in advance to try to get some patriots on their side. McCain can use all the help he can get.

And he has gotten it.

Thompson, Knucklehead, and IMO Giuliani were all working for McCain

Originally Posted by Populist

Hewitt's take:

Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Super Tuesday Math: Far, Far From Over
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 9:39 AM

CNN puts McCain with 97 delegates and Romney at 74.

Let's look at the worst case for Romney on Super Tuesday.

Next Tuesday the winner-take-all states that lean McCain are New York (101), Missouri (58 ), Arizona (53), New Jersey (52) Connecticut (30), and Delaware (18 ) for a total of 312 delegates. (Even though Missouri, another winner-take-all leans Huck right now, lets give its 58 delegates to McCain.)

Romney is favored in winner-take-all Utah (36) and Montana (25), for a total of 51 delegates.

Thus before the sorting takes place in the other states, McCain's got 409 delegates and Romney's got 126.

Huckabee will certainly get the 34 Arkansas delegates to go with his 29, for a total of 63.

States dividing delegates Tuesday on other-than-a-winner-take-all basis:

California 173
Georgia 72
Illinois 70
Tennessee 55
Alabama 48
Colorado 46
Massachusetts 41
Minnesota 40
Oklahoma 41
West Virginia 30
Alaska 29
North Dakota 26

Total 671

If these divide 40-40-20, McCain and Romney will add 269 delegates each, and Huck 133. But since we are going worst case for Romney, make it 50-30-20, or 336 for McCain, 201 for Romney, and 134 for Huck.

Total at the end of Super Tuesday without a major reversal of fortune for Romney:

McCain 745, Romney 327, and Huck 197.

It takes 1,191 delegates to secure the nomination. There are more than 900 delegates left to fight for after Super Tuesday.

Start looking hard at the numbers and put yourself in the discussions with Team Romney. It isn't pretty, but it is far, far from over.

And if the Huckabee voters look at the reality and see they are voting for McCain when they vote for Huck, anything can happen.

http://hughhewitt.townhall.com/blog

WOW " Dixie "and "Populist" Thanks for showing that....it is far far from over!!!

Right now it's looking an awful lot like our choices in November are gonna be:

Hillary: Amnesty
McCain: Amnesty

Unless more people start voting for Romney.