Thread: Donald Trump sensing momentum as Colorado polls appear to narrow

Donald Trump sensing momentum as Colorado polls appear to narrow

By John Frank | jfrank@denverpost.com
PUBLISHED: September 13, 2016 at 8:17 pm | UPDATED: September 13, 2016 at 8:46 pm

THORNTON — Sonja Smith on Tuesday knocked on a door in this key election territory and posed the question facing all voters this year.

Do you want the next president to continue Barack Obama’s policies or do you want change?

Before the Republican Party volunteer even finished her line, Ken Maestas had the answer. “No! No! Change direction,” the retired police officer said with conviction. “I’m all for changing.”

More voters are beginning to agree with Maestas, as evidenced by Donald Trump’s rising stock in Colorado. The latest polls show the Republican closing the gap with Hillary Clinton in a state where Democrats felt so confident that they diverted millions in television advertising to other battlegrounds.

A Reuters/Ipsos survey released this week gave Trump a narrow edge in a two-way race, 43 percent to 41 percent — his first lead in Colorado in the 2016 election. It follows two other recent polls showing the presidential race as a dead heat or within 5 percentage points.

For months, Clinton held a definitive, often double-digit lead in Colorado, and polling averages still give her the upper hand. But Republicans are sensing momentum here, and Trump announced Tuesday he will hold a rally Saturday in Colorado Springs.

Democratic strategist Rick Ridder said the polling trend is a natural phenomenon in Colorado, where party registration is evenly split and independents make it a swing state.

“Anybody who thought Hillary Clinton was going to win the state of Colorado by double digits was dreaming,” said Ridder, a veteran of six presidential campaigns. “The history in Colorado shows that it is difficult for a Democrat or a Republican to get over 50 percent of the vote.”

The new polling numbers, he said, set the stage for the final two months in the 2016 election. “The question,” he said, “is this: Has Hillary or Trump given people a reason to go out and vote and to what levels and depth does it reach?”

What shifted the landscape in Colorado is a matter of dispute between the campaigns. And it’s clear Clinton and Trump face significant unknowns about turnout and enthusiasm in the weeks ahead in the state’s first mail-ballot presidential election.

Republican pollster David Flaherty at Magellan Strategies conducted a Aug. 29-31 poll that showed Clinton with a 41 percent to 36 percent lead among likely voters in a four-way race, just outside the 4.4 percentage point margin of error.

But he cautions against Trump’s camp getting too optimistic. “Trump is not gaining in momentum or support. Gary Johnson is,” he said, referring to the Libertarian candidate for president, who is getting significant support in Colorado.

For the state’s independent voters, he said, “Hillary is not the answer and Trump’s not the answer to them. Right now they are giving (Johnson) a look, but they don’t know much about him. Normally, those voters would break for the Democrats.”

Inside the student union Tuesday at Metropolitan State University of Denver, the Clinton campaign’s national Latino vote director, Lorella Praeli, met with a handful of students. In a state where the Latino turnout is never a guarantee, she urged them to reach out to friends and classmates to get interested in the race.

“I think Latino voters are our path to victory here in Colorado,” she said in an interview afterward. “Colorado is a battleground state. You are going to win it by a tight margin, … so our job from the beginning has been about activating and organizing the communities that are going to bring Hillary Clinton to success.”

Even if they are receptive to the Democrat’s policies, not all are interested in the race. Ariadma Segura, a 23-year-old student from Lakewood, said she recently went canvassing in Pueblo for an organization that promotes immigrant rights.

Asked about the mood on the ground, she said, “It’s a little polar in the sense that some people are really interested and some people seem more apathetic about it.”

Clinton’s team established an early presence in the state as the Trump campaign struggled to get organized. In the weeks after the primary race ended, the campaign managed to mend most fences with Bernie Sanders loyalists, even as it won support from Republicans and nontraditional Democratic constituencies.

Much of the recent polling that gave Clinton lower marks, however, took place as attention on her mishandling of e-mails as secretary of state and questions about her family’s foundation reached a peak. And the latest controversies — her statement about half of Trump’s supporters being “deplorables” and the secrecy about her health — are only adding to Democratic worries.

Emmy Ruiz, the campaign’s Colorado director, noted in a strategy memo weeks ago that she expected the race to tighten and expressed confidence in the campaign’s investments in organizing.

“We know this is going to be a tough race,” she said. “We are prepared to earn every vote. Polls will shift and move around.”

As the Clinton campaign stumbled, Republicans began to get a foothold.

The Republican National Committee’s organizing team in Colorado suffered a shakeup this year that left its ranks depleted. But this week it boasted 50 paid field staffers who are organizing volunteers while the Trump campaign is still adding to its ranks.

In addition to Trump’s upcoming visit, his daughter Ivanka is scheduled to attend a private campaign fundraiser Sept. 21 in Denver, the campaign said.

Patrick Davis, Trump senior adviser in Colorado, said the campaign is still in persuasion mode.

“His economic message and his message about security is resonating with (voters),” he said. “They like the idea of building the wall. It’s a concrete example about how he is going to keep us safe again.”

Smith, a 41-year-old executive assistant, is representative of the newcomers who are getting involved in the Republican effort to elect Trump.

Smith and Julia Hernandez, her canvassing partner, are first-time volunteers who spend two days a week knocking on doors in their Thornton neighborhood, identifying potential supporters in a key swing district. They call it “going Trumping.”

“Mr. Trump listens,” said Smith, explaining her support. “I think he’ll be that fresh perspective and he’ll change things for the better for everyone.”

Not all people on the walk agreed. One man shouted at them from two doors away after they left Trump literature at the door. Another woman turned them away at the door by saying she supported continuing Obama’s policies.

But Maestas, the 66-year-old retired police officer, disagreed.

“I don’t trust them,” he said of Obama and Clinton. “They lie. I just feel that we should go a whole new direction. And when Donald Trump comes out and says that all the politicians are liars and thieves and no-goods, I said that’s the guy I’m going to vote for.”

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/09/13...-polls-narrow/

Trump leading in Colorado by 2%!

YIPPEE!!

Thank you Colorado! Hope it sticks and grows like a prairie fire!!

TRUMP! TRUMP! TRUMP!!