Thread: Florida Republicans Fear an Uphill Election Battle

Florida Republicans Fear an Uphill Election Battle
The president's low ratings and a polarizing Senate candidate are the party's top concerns.
By Carol J. Williams
Times Staff Writer

May 13, 2006

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Despite the fact that they are led by an extremely popular governor, hold a strong legislative majority and have a friend in the White House, there is little joy among Florida Republicans heading into this fall's midterm elections.

With Republican candidates nationwide campaigning under the burden of slumping support for President Bush and the Iraq war, some here concede they have an uphill fight to retain the political high-water mark they've enjoyed for almost a decade.

The party couldn't find challengers to go up against four incumbent House Democrats, leaving Reps. Allen Boyd, Corrine Brown, Robert Wexler and Debbie Wasserman-Schultz to run unopposed in November.

And the Republican Party of Florida's failed attempt to drive one of its own — Rep. Katherine Harris — out of the race for Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson's seat left the woman made famous by her role in the 2000 presidential recount likely to win the primary but wounded for the contest against the incumbent.

Three little-known candidates filed by Friday's deadline to challenge Harris for the Republican nomination — lawyer William McBride, developer Peter Monroe and retired Navy officer LeRoy Collins Jr., the son of a 1950s-era governor. They are expected to split the anti-Harris vote.

Gov. Jeb Bush's preferred contender, state Speaker of the House Allan G. Bense, announced Wednesday that he didn't have the energy for the costly and no-doubt bruising run.

Before Bense made his decision, Bush had undercut Harris with the widely publicized observation that "I just don't believe she can win."

Flush with what may have been a Pyrrhic victory, Harris on Thursday brushed off the "less than laudatory comments from the Beltway boys" as the mutterings of entrenched politicians upset because she had made clear that she "won't walk in lock step with them" for purely partisan reasons.

At state Democratic Party headquarters, the internal GOP strife was lifting spirits.

"This is our best opportunity to pick up seats since 1984," said Luis Navarro, executive director of Florida's Democratic Party.

He pointed to four Republican-held U.S. House seats that his party had a shot at winning. Florida Democrats could help the party take back control of the House, where Republicans hold 231 of 435 seats.

In any off-year election, Navarro said, the party in power has difficulty getting voters to turn out.

And this year could be even more difficult for the GOP because of the low approval ratings dogging President Bush, the governor's brother.

"In all published polls, we see a direct correlation between the president's decline and the Democrats' competitiveness," Navarro said.

Harris, Florida's former secretary of state who caught the nation's attention when she certified the 2000 presidential results to give Bush a slim and controversial victory over Democrat Al Gore, threatens to polarize voters and inspire a strong independent turnout.

"The real fear [among Republicans] is that Katherine Harris brings everyone else down," said Mark Bubriski, communications director for the state Democratic Party.

Democrats also believe that the national Republican Party's support for opening the Gulf Coast to oil and gas drilling could hurt GOP candidates in this tourism-dependent state.

The national immigration reform debate also presents a problem for Republicans in Florida, where agriculture and the hospitality industry employ hundreds of thousands of illegal immigrant workers.

State Republican Party communications chief Jeff Sadosky has tried to put a positive spin on what political analysts consider an embarrassment for Gov. Bush — the failed move against Harris — contending GOP candidates will benefit from the legacy of a governor departing on a high note.

"His approval ratings are in the 60s. He's wildly popular," Sadosky said of the governor, whom he expects to campaign for Republican candidates this fall.

Quoting the late Democratic House Speaker Thomas P. "Tip" O'Neill, Sadosky argued that "all politics is local" and that GOP candidates can point to tangible gains in the economy and education achieved during a decade-long majority Republican watch.

Although the party believes it will make further gains in the Legislature, Sadosky conceded, "On the federal level, I don't know."

As for Harris, Sadosky said: "This is an opportunity for her to take the advice the governor gave her a month and a half ago and make the campaign about Bill Nelson's record, not about her…. If it continues to be about Katherine Harris, as it has been so far … that's going to be a tough one to win."

In an interview, Harris said she planned to take on Nelson for being "completely out of step with mainstream Floridians."

She also said she disagreed with the state GOP's analysis of her chances.

"All the polling I've seen suggests that if we just turn out our base, we'll win," Harris said. "And I ignite our base."

That incendiary potential is what worries Republican strategists, who fear her conservative positions — and the taint from an illegal contributions scandal — could discourage party moderates from voting.

A planned handgun training session to requalify Harris for the concealed weapons permit she obtained amid death threats after the 2000 election controversy spurred articles in Florida newspapers about her role in the recount.

By inviting photographers to today's Tampa-area training, she appeared to be spurning the party's advice to run on her contrasts with Nelson and not on her reputation.


The Bush brothers kick Katherine Harris to the curb.
Republicans seem to want Harris out of the race because they don't think she can win.

Two recent polls showed Harris trailing Nelson by 17 points and 12 points respectively, even though the incumbent is considered vulnerable. Republicans may well worry that Harris, who remains a polarizing figure, could not only lose an important race but also hurt other GOP candidates in Florida, and possibly around the nation. Democrats have already tried to take advantage; a recent e-mail fund-raising plea from the liberal group America Coming Together asked ominously, "Remember Katherine Harris of Florida in 2000? Now imagine Senator Katherine Harris."

Despite the pressure from on high, Harris doesn't seem inclined to play the good soldier this time. "We're absolutely in the race," Adam Goodman, her political consultant, told me. Harris is a powerful fund-raiser, and she will be tough to beat in a primary, whatever Jeb Bush and the White House do. And if Bense were to take out Harris, it won't be easy for him to topple Nelson. Bense has little name recognition in Florida—as he told the Sentinel, "Outside of Panama City and a four-block radius around the Capitol, I'm an unknown person"—and he did even more poorly than Harris in one of the recent polls, coming in on the losing end of a 55-26 split. His defenders say he'll rise in the polls as voters get to know him. But Harris would likely also improve her standing as Florida voters begin responding to her campaign ads rather than judging her by the lingering memory of 2000. It's possible that Bense might be a better candidate than Harris in a general election—she is not, truth be told, considered a particularly competent politician in the state. But she has never lost a race, and the case for Bense is far from a slam-dunk.

Yet Jeb and George W. are apparently kicking Harris to the curb without the slightest reservation. Considering that without her, the president might be back on his ranch telling stories about the time he came this close to beating Al Gore, the Bush brothers' disaffection for Harris more than undercuts the president's legendary reputation for loyalty.

Certainly, many of the people who have stood by the president have been rewarded: Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, who has been with Bush since he was Texas governor, rose on the strength of his allegiance to the president, as well as his willingness to risk his neck for Bush. Condoleezza Rice went before the 9/11 commission to defend the president during the 2004 presidential campaign, took perhaps the most humiliating hits of her career, and was promptly promoted to Secretary of State.

But Harris is a better test of Bush fealty than Gonzales or Rice. In promoting them, Bush did himself and his party a favor—he put a Hispanic and an African-American into high-profile positions at a time when the party wanted to appear more inclusive. Standing by someone you like when it's politically expedient isn't a powerful show of loyalty; standing by someone you owe, regardless of the expediencies, is. Maybe another carrot is being dangled before Harris if she steps out of the Senate race. But if she goes for it, she's a fool. The evidence suggests her loyalty won't ever be repaid in kind.
http://www.slate.com/id/2121746/

Candidates diverge on thorny immigration issues

http://www.sptimes.com/2006/05/17/State ... e_on.shtml
Harris has backed a tough House bill while Nelson leans toward a bipartisan compromise.

By WES ALLISON, Times Staff Writer
Published May 17, 2006

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WASHINGTON — When Rep. Katherine Harris considers the illegal immigrants working the fields of southwest Florida or marching near the U.S. Capitol, she sees lawbreakers profiting from a broken immigration system and porous borders that could easily allow terrorists into the country.


She has voted to send most of them home.


Sen. Bill Nelson, the Democrat she hopes to replace, sees a broken system that needs fixing, too. But he says many of the estimated 12-million illegal immigrants in the country provide crucial labor to the construction, agriculture and service industries — staples of Florida’s economy.


He favors a bill that would allow many to stay and work.


After a series of nationwide protests by immigrants against a tough House bill that Harris backed, the Senate this week renewed debate over comprehensive immigration reform, the most ambitious legislation Congress will attempt this year.


As Nelson and Harris hit the campaign trail and encounter voters concerned about illegal immigration, a look at the candidates’ votes, legislation and remarks show voters have a distinct choice. They are alike on some aspects of comprehensive immigration reform, divergent on others.


But both also are trying to strike a delicate political balance that, in the end, may make their positions more similar than different.


Nelson says he will likely support the bipartisan compromise crafted by fellow Florida Sen. Mel Martinez, a Republican, that would allow illegal immigrants who have been here at least five years to stay, provided they work, pay back taxes, and meet other conditions. Eventually they could seek citizenship.


The bill would add thousands of border patrol and customs agents, and require businesses to verify their employees are legal. The latest version, expected to reach a Senate vote by next week, also includes an amendment that Nelson proposed last month to use high-tech aerial and electronic surveillance to monitor borders.


“Merging these two goals together, to get these people out of the shadows, working and paying taxes — which they are not — is what we need to do,” Nelson told about 40 people in Brooksville last week. “And at the same time, patrol borders.”


Under the Martinez bill, those here two to five years could get a temporary work permit and eventually seek permanent residency. Those here less than two years must leave.


It also would expand the so-called guest worker program, allowing more permits for seasonal jobs in agriculture and other industries.

Business groups, including the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and agriculture associations, favor the bill because it would allow a large pool of workers to remain in the country. They are lobbying Nelson to support it.


“We’ve been waiting for immigration reform for 10 years,” said Sharon Hughes, executive vice-president of the National Council of Agriculture Employers, which represents farm groups.


“It’s gotten to the point now with the shortage of not only legal workers, but the shortage of workers, period, we’ve got to have relief now.”


Nelson also backs a bipartisan bill, called the DREAM Act, that would make it easier for the children of illegal immigrants to attend college.

But moderate Democrats are wary of appearing too permissive toward illegal immigrants, and Nelson has been vocal in the need for tougher border security as well. He sponsored a bill aimed at MS-13, a Central American gang , that would bar entry to anyone suspected of gang activity.


He also has offered an amendment that would increase detention space for illegal immigrants caught in the United States, so officials can hold them until they’re deported. Now, thousands are given a hearing date and released.


“They are here illegally, and what do you know — we don’t have the detention space in which to process them,” Nelson said on the Senate floor recently. “They are released. ... Guess what happens? They completely disappear.”


Harris’ approach to immigration has focused on law and order.


In December, she voted for the controversial House bill, H.R. 4437, that would make illegal immigrants felons and make it a felony to help them.


The bill would also beef up border security, and penalize businesses that hire undocumented workers. Illegal immigrants who are caught would be deported.


It makes no provisions for illegal immigrants to earn permanent residency, nor does it provide additional guest worker permits for some industries where the labor force could be cut short.


“This legislation takes the necessary first steps to strengthen our borders, prevent terrorist attacks, improve our efforts to curb illegal immigration, and reasserts our commitment to the rule of law,” Harris, a member of the Homeland Security Committee, said after the House passed the bill in December.


Most Florida Republicans in the House voted for it, too. Harris also has sponsored her own bill to enhance border security and cooperation among the United States, Canada and Mexico.


Her support for the House bill, written by Judiciary Chairman James Sensenbrenner, R-Wis., is popular with many of the Republican activists who attended her rallies in North Florida recently. But it also put her at odds with much of the state’s business community, including powerful tourism and agricultural interests, as well as Sen. Martinez, Gov. Jeb Bush, and President Bush.


Business and farm lobbyists hope to persuade her to back a more lenient bill, such as Martinez’s.


“She comes from an ag family, so certainly based on the family history in agriculture she understands the critical nature of having an available work force,” said Ray Gilmer, public affairs director for the Florida Fruit & Vegetable Association.


On the campaign trail, Harris emphasized security and raised the specter of terrorists slipping across the Mexican border. Like Nelson, she’s concerned that captured illegal immigrants are often released.


“We have no idea where they are,” Harris said. “Ladies and gentlemen, some of those Middle Easterners and others that cross the border — anyone who cares more about our death than their own life — is a serious threat.”


She has declined to discuss the Martinez bill, saying she didn’t want to comment on pending legislation. She also has voiced no support for allowing illegal immigrants who have worked in the country for years to become permanent legal residents, as the Martinez bill would allow.


But she said immigrants are an important part of the economy, and she supports allowing them to work here temporarily, a position that could satisfy the get-tough cravings of conservative voters as well as agriculture interests that rely on seasonal pickers.


In an interview, she acknowledged that the House bill was only “half the equation.”


“We have to find a way to allow this temporary work force that is well documented in terms of identification the ability to work here,” she said.


Times staff writers Bill Adair, Chandra Broadwater and Elena Lesley contributed to this report.


Makes me wonder if her stance on immigration is the reason the Bush brothers kicked her to the curb.....George and Jeb want someone in there who will support all their ideas....she goes against the grain.

And the Republican Party of Florida's failed attempt to drive one of its own — Rep. Katherine Harris — out of the race for Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson's seat left the woman made famous by her role in the 2000 presidential recount likely to win the primary but wounded for the contest against the incumbent.

Never learn {or do they have another agenda?} Turn on their own

That really does beg the question, "what is their agenda?"

Well being as I live in Florida, they all need to be kicked to the curb. Little Bush, traiter..oops I mean senator Martinez, Nelson who is not any better, and this Harris woman who thinks we need illegals for the ecomony. It is time to clean house in Florida.

Baby brother Bush better not be considering a run for prez. The family will be sorely disappointed at his loss.

Now I am going to have to check out the three names that got in under the wire to run.

DLM
Has Harris voiced her position on Illegals yet? I've not heard anything but I'm also not in Florida.

Personally, I think both the R's and the D's need to worry here in Florida.

The SP Times has been attacked (for lack of a better term) by Bill O'Reilly ... if that says anything.

I guess Katherine Harris isn't cut out for the NWO anymore. No honor amongst thieves.

2ndamendsis,

She has declined to discuss the Martinez bill, saying she didn’t want to comment on pending legislation. She also has voiced no support for allowing illegal immigrants who have worked in the country for years to become permanent legal residents, as the Martinez bill would allow.


But she said immigrants are an important part of the economy, and she supports allowing them to work here temporarily, a position that could satisfy the get-tough cravings of conservative voters as well as agriculture interests that rely on seasonal pickers.


In an interview, she acknowledged that the House bill was only “half the equation.”


“We have to find a way to allow this temporary work force that is well documented in terms of identification the ability to work here,” she said.

That is guest worker and we all know where that leads....

Why couldn't they get Foley to run?

He would have beaten Nelson like a tympani.

I guarantee you that when/if Harris loses it will be depicted by the jackals in the mainstream media as a vote in favor of amnesty and open borders.

LOL........ok, now I know I'm certifiably brain dead.......how'd I miss that?
{color me red}

Thanx for taking the time to point it out to me!

I guarantee you that when/if Harris loses it will be depicted by the jackals in the mainstream media as a vote in favor of amnesty and open borders.

It does not really matter if it Harris or Nelson. We already know how he votes and from what I have read Harris is not any better. Like I said I am going to check on the other three that got their names in before the deadline and see what they say they are about.

If you want to check they are:
William McBride
Peter Monroe
Leroy Collins