I think we are getting very close to optimal economic conditions. If the American economy is too brisk there will be lots of pressure for more immigration. When the unemployment rate is 4 percent (assuming that is accurate) everyone willing to work is working.

So I don't know what to think of Trump's trade strategy. I'm worried we could see a repeat of the 1980's---something probably a lot of GOP would like---but if the economy is too brisk they will jack interest rates way up. Probably would kill construction, then. The construction boom and bust cycle in the US is exacerbated by age demographics! A steady pace would be better than the boom and bust cycle--and the boom cycles invariably attract migrant labor, as it does in the rest of the world, too.

So I'm not sure if there is really an urgency to tackle the trade deficits. And as far as the decline of America, I think the deteriorated urban housing has been one of the big indicators. I don't know if people have the patience to rehab that which is salvageable, or even if local policies would help it----or if they would prefer to settle in to long term mortgages on new buildings. It's still a big risk for individual families.

Just overheating the US economy may not actually be a populist idea.