Thread: Illegal Immigrant Population Declining

Illegal Immigrant Population Declining

PR Newswire
July 30, 2009
WASHINGTON, D.C.

New Report Estimates 1.7 Million Drop Since Summer 2007

WASHINGTON, July 30 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- An analysis by the Center for Immigration Studies of monthly data collected by the Census Bureau shows that fewer illegal immigrants are coming and more are returning home. The findings also show that the legal immigrant population has not declined. As a result, the overall foreign-born population has held relatively steady. The report examines the extent to which stepped-up enforcement and the downturn in the economy account for this trend.

The report, "A Shifting Tide: Recent Trends in the Illegal Immigrant Population," is written by Steven Camarota, the Center's Director of Research, and Karen Jensenius, the Center's Demographer. The report is at: http://cis.org/IllegalImmigration-ShiftingTide.

Among the findings:

Our best estimate is that the illegal population declined 13.7 percent (1.7 million) from a peak of 12.5 million in the summer of 2007 to 10.8 million in the first quarter of 2009.If we compare the first quarter of 2007 to the first quarter of 2009, the implied decline is 1.3 million (10.9 percent). In just the last year the decline was 5.7 percent.By design, these estimates produce results similar to those from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). DHS estimates of the illegal population show a 1.5 percent decline between January 1, 2007, and January 1, 2008. Our estimates show a 1.6 percent decline over the same time period. DHS has not yet estimated the illegal population for January 2009.There is evidence that the number of new illegal immigrants arriving has fallen by about one-third in the last two years compared to earlier in this decade. There is also evidence that the number of illegal immigrants returning home has more than doubled in the last two years compared to earlier in this decade.While migration patterns have fundamentally changed, it must be remembered that the overwhelming majority of illegal immigrants have not left the country, and tens of thousands of new illegal immigrants continue to settle in the country each year.Our analysis shows that only the illegal immigrant population has declined. The legal immigrant population does not show the same decline. This is true overall and for Mexico specifically, the top illegal-immigrant-sending country.The fact that the legal immigrant population does not show the same decline is an indication that stepped-up enforcement has played a role.Another indication that enforcement has contributed to the decline is that the illegal immigrant population began falling before there was a significant rise in the unemployment rate for illegal immigrants.While the decline began before unemployment among illegal immigrants rose, since then unemployment among illegal immigrants has increased dramatically and must now be playing a significant role in reducing their numbers.There is evidence that the illegal population rose in the summer of 2007, while Congress was considering legalizing illegal immigrants. When that legislation failed to pass, the illegal population quickly began a dramatic fall.There is no way to know if the current trend will continue. Given President Obama's stated desire to legalize illegal immigrants and his backing away from enforcement efforts, it seems likely that when the economy recovers, the illegal population will resume its growth.

Discussion: These findings are consistent with anecdotal evidence. They are also consistent with data showing a decline in remittances sent home by immigrants. Additionally, they are in line with a drop in border apprehensions. The decline in the illegal population, whatever the cause, challenges the argument that illegal aliens are so firmly attached to their lives in this country that it is not possible to induce many of them to return home. The evidence indicates that this is not the case. If the current trend were to continue for another five years, it could cut the illegal population in half from its peak in the summary of 2007.

Methodology: This study uses monthly data from the Current Population Survey collected by the Census Bureau. The Department of Homeland Security, the former INS, and other outside research organizations have used Census Bureau data to estimate the illegal immigrant population. We examine trends in the number of foreign-born, less-educated, young, Hispanic immigrants. Prior research indicates that 80 percent of these individuals are in the country illegally. Please see the report itself for more detail.

The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent research institute that examines the impact of immigration on the United States.

SOURCE Center for Immigration Studies

http://www6.lexisnexis.com/publisher/En ... 01&start=3

Great news if it's true. Self-deportation or deportation of 12 + millions illegal aliens CAN be done. Shouldn't take 5 years if they can't get jobs or bennies, so let's ENFORCE our laws. YES WE CAN!

Come to Southern California. You can't convince me that illegals are decreasing in numbers!

One reason of many: today's paper had a ad regarding a "free" emergency aid program with free kits to teach the 10 hour class over 3 days IN THE SPANISH LANGUAGE. WHY ARE WE SUBSIDIZING THIS?
I will have to wait 6 months for getting into the program because I don't speak Spanish.....and I doubt seriously if anything will be freely given!

Why are we offering things in Spanish language so readily? Why are so many tv and radio programs strickly in Spanish language? This no longer seems like America to me. More people seem to be speaking Spanish than English! Today I turned on a tv program and what was being taught? Spanish!!!!!!! Not English!!!!! I HATE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION PROBLEMS. I HATE THAT PEOPLE ARE NOT ADDRESSING IT AS AN URGENT MATTER TO SAVE THE IDENTITY OF OUR COUNTRY.

Welcome to Alipac goodone and excellent points. I think what the article meant to say was that as smart states pass laws against them, they will still go where protected, like California and Texas.

Originally Posted by jshhmr

Welcome to Alipac goodone and excellent points. I think what the article meant to say was that as smart states pass laws against them, they will still go where protected, like California and Texas.

What is the deal with these "red" states protecting the illegals? Soon we will be forced to speak spanish and I refused to learn in high school and i refuse now. It will be like that until English is the official language of the US. How about I go to Mexico demanding they speak English? BS

I know if congress get that health bill passed with IA along with the package, we're screwed.

I wonder if the number of anchor babies enrolling each year in the nation's public schools is declining at all. This is the only thing that would make me believe they are leaving the USA in any measurable numbers. Also, a bunch of Food Lion stores in NC have just converted over to quasi-Hispanic supermarkets, with large parts of the store filled with items for Hispanic customers. Doesn't seem like too many are leaving to me.

If there is a choice between being poor back in Mexico or being poor here in the U.S.? ... I bet most illegals choose staying here in the U.S. ...Thanks to our crooked politicians who care more about illegals than American citizens.

Originally Posted by hattiecat

I wonder if the number of anchor babies enrolling each year in the nation's public schools is declining at all. This is the only thing that would make me believe they are leaving the USA in any measurable numbers. Also, a bunch of Food Lion stores in NC have just converted over to quasi-Hispanic supermarkets, with large parts of the store filled with items for Hispanic customers. Doesn't seem like too many are leaving to me.

Refer to my earlier post http://www.alipac.us/ftopicp-931615-.html#931615
and it will show you that anchor babies are increasing at my school district here in DFW. They are coming from Oklahoma.

It was bad enough dealing with Sooners from OK, now we get their illegals

Originally Posted by goodone

Come to Southern California. You can't convince me that illegals are decreasing in numbers!

One reason of many: today's paper had a ad regarding a "free" emergency aid program with free kits to teach the 10 hour class over 3 days IN THE SPANISH LANGUAGE. WHY ARE WE SUBSIDIZING THIS?
I will have to wait 6 months for getting into the program because I don't speak Spanish.....and I doubt seriously if anything will be freely given!

Why are we offering things in Spanish language so readily? Why are so many tv and radio programs strickly in Spanish language? This no longer seems like America to me. More people seem to be speaking Spanish than English! Today I turned on a tv program and what was being taught? Spanish!!!!!!! Not English!!!!! I HATE ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION PROBLEMS. I HATE THAT PEOPLE ARE NOT ADDRESSING IT AS AN URGENT MATTER TO SAVE THE IDENTITY OF OUR COUNTRY.

Welcome Goodone! I hear ya on this. Last year, I was visiting my dad in ID. He was working with a real estate agent to get his house on the market and we got on the subject of IA's in CA. She told me every client she had from CA made the same point: "It doesn't even feel like America there anymore." Unfortunately, I must concur.
As long as our gov Arnie welcomes them and supports their 13 billion dollar a year bill, the problem will continue to escalate. Some say that by 2014 there will be a mexican take over of CA. I bet it happens sooner!


June 05, 2009

Mexico’s Take Over Of California: Complete By 2014?
By Joe Guzzardi

In March, April and May, I wrote a series of columns about the sorry condition of California’s GOP (here, here and here). I also handicapped the party’s dismal prospects for winning any of the three most critical elections—either of the two U.S. Senate seats currently held by Democrats Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein or the 2010 governor’s race to replace termed-out Republican incumbent Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Although Boxer will also run in 2010 for re-election, California is in such dire straits that all eyes will be on the governor’s contest. That shapes up as a probable match between Republican political novice Meg Whitman versus either of two Democratic veterans, Feinstein or the omnipresent former governor and current Attorney General Jerry Brown.
But since early spring when I gave my first assessment, California’s political sands have shifted. And with the change, a Republican has suddenly vaulted into the forefront of the state’s politics.
In fact, although it’s way early, I make State Senator Abel Maldonado the odds-on pick in 2014 to become California’s governor.
For immigration reform patriots, that’s much more bad news than it is good news. While Maldonado is indeed a Republican—technically—he points to his migrant farm worker parents as the reason for his fierce illegal immigration advocacy.
How a relatively obscure state representative from Santa Maria will become California’s first Hispanic governor since Romualdo Pacheco, Jr., in 1875 is an interesting tale. [Senator Abel Maldonado Has Made A Name for Himself, by Steve Chawkins and Patrick McGreevy, Los Angeles Times, February 22, 2009]
Maldonado will pull it off with a combination of luck and skill.
Specifically, this is how he’ll do it:
In a stroke of good fortune for Maldonado, Lt. Governor John Garamendi recently announced that he was abandoning his moribund gubernatorial effort to run instead for the congressional seat about to be vacated when Ellen Tauscher leaves for Washington DC to serve as Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. [Ellen Tauscher Is Off to the State Department for Sure, by Anne Schroeder Mullens, POLITICO.com, March 19, 2009]
That means Schwarzenegger must appoint Garamendi’s replacement. And, as it happens, Republican Schwarzenegger owes Republican Maldonado a favor.
During Schwarzenegger’s bitter dispute with the state legislature to close California’s $40 billion budget deficit (via higher taxes and more debt), Maldonado infuriated his conservative Republican colleagues when he sided with the governor.
But at the same time, Maldonado ingratiated himself, not only with Schwarzenegger, but also with California’s Democrats and independents eager to end the impasse.
Step one in Maldonado’s ascent, then, will take place in a few weeks when Schwarzenegger appoints him to replace Garamendi.
Suddenly, Maldonado will emerge from relative political obscurity to become a key player who, because of his Mexican immigrant background, will be hyped to the max by California’s adoring MainStream Media.
Step two will occur in November 2010 when either Feinstein or Brown easily defeat the Republican candidate—presumably Whitman.
By 2014—the next year the gubernatorial election rolls around—several things will have evolved, all of which play in Maldonado’s favor.

California’s overall economic health will remain on life support—horrible news for an incumbent hoping for another term.

Feinstein will be 81, Brown 76 but Maldonado only 47. In age-obsessed California that creates a huge edge for Maldonado. According to census data, in 2014 the average age of California’s Hispanics will be about 30. Ask yourself this simple question: will those young Hispanics vote for the fossilized white incumbent or the polished Maldonado who can appeal to their ethnic roots?

California’s demographics will have shifted even more dramatically toward Hispanic domination. The state’s population will be about 40 percent Hispanic—the largest voting bloc.

Add to Feinstein and Brown’s age and demographic negatives is that they have knocked around California politics for nearly four decades. If voters of all stripes aren’t sick of them by 2014, then I don’t know what.Maldonado has been building toward his political ascendancy since 2000.
As a freshman state assemblyman he accepted an invitation from then-presidential candidate George W. Bush to give a Spanish-language speech to the Republican presidential convention aimed at wooing Hispanic voters. (Vainly, of course).
And in 2008, again addressing the Republican convention, Maldonado closed with these words (translated from Spanish):
“John McCain and my father would be good amigos. Ladies and gentlemen, que viva the immigrant story.â€

If OBL Latinos take over CA. Who will be left to pay the Bills ? This could get interesting indeed as a mass exodus of taxpayers would surely happen.

I think Meg Whitman will win the Govenors Mansion.She is well known,well liked and well financed.