Thread: John McCain's Immigration Achilles

REAL CLEAR POLITICS CROSS TABS BLOG
November 03, 2008

(PLease note that the following is a Blog which expresses the opinions of its author.)


JOHN MCCAIN'S IMMIGRATION ACHILLES

By Greg Bobrinskoy


When John McCain won his party's nomination earlier this year, many conservatives reacted disapprovingly. They had not voted for McCain. They had split their votes so evenly among the other conservative nominees (especially in South Carolina and Florida) that McCain won by default. However, some of these Republicans kept themselves upbeat, or were told not to sit this election out, by the idea that McCain's electability in the general election was far higher than the more conservative nominees they'd preferred.

A key component to McCain's electability was his history as a proponent of moderation on the immigration issue; a stance which would allow him to heavily contest the Latino vote as President Bush did in 2004 when he won 44 percent of their vote. Bush's increased support from Hispanics was crucial to his victory over Kerry. In Illinois and California, Bush was trounced by 9 and 11 percentage points, respectively. Yet Bush still won a higher percentage of the white vote in both states. The reason he lost was because Kerry won an overwhelming percentage of the Hispanic vote. In California Bush won only 32% of Latino votes, in Illinois he won a meager 23%. Yet in Florida, a state Bush pulled out a crucial victory in, Bush won the Hispanic vote over Kerry by a 56-44 percent margin.

Many have hypothesized as to why McCain's primary campaign collapsed last summer. Explanations range from blaming McCain's campaign manager Terry Nelson for creating a bloated apparatus it could never financially support to McCain's history of low fundraising dating back to the 2000 Presidential campaign. But the key reason McCain's campaign fell apart was that it directly coincided with his bold stand for comprehensive immigration reform in the face of extremely strong resistance from conservative Republicans in Congress, conservative talk radio, and the conservative electorate. Conservatives publicly opposed what they deemed the 'amnesty bill' more than almost any other bill in recent memory and it was McCain who took more of the blame than any other Republican.

When McCain's political career had been in jeopardy, he chose to stand by the Latino/moderate-Republican community and took on the conservative base he would desperately need to run for President. Conservatives stopped donating to his campaign and his once front runner-like operation fell apart. For a variety of reasons, mostly pure luck, McCain came back and eventually won his party's nomination. There was no reason to believe that if Obama was to be his opponent, McCain could not garner significant Latino support.

In February, when McCain had won Florida and looked to have become the presumptive nominee, Kimberley Strassel of the Wall Street Journal wrote that McCain was the best pick for his electability. He could "stem the flood of Hispanics from the GOP. His new immigration strategy was on display in this week's debate: He'll talk about the importance of securing the border, and say no more. With this he hopes to mollify conservatives, and will leave it to others to remind Hispanics of his record. Florida was a useful test case, with Mr. McCain winning more than half the Hispanic vote. Another quarter went to Rudy Giuliani, who has since thrown in with Mr. McCain. Mr. Romney got 14%."

Now, a day before Election Day, the Latino vote is polling heavily against McCain. A Zogby poll showed 21 percent supported McCain with 70 percent for Obama. Another poll by the Pew Hispanic Center found 23 percent supporting McCain and 66 percent supporting Obama. The man who has won numerous awards from Hispanic organizations and garnered 70 percent of the Hispanic vote in his last Senate race is set to lose this election when stronger support from the Latino community, especially in states such as Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida, would place him in much better position to win.

The theory that Latinos who heavily favored Clinton over Obama in the Democratic primaries would move to McCain has not materialized. If anything, the primary seems to have strengthened their self-identification with Democrats and whoever that nominee may be. The lack of support from Hispanics is not the only reason McCain may lose tomorow. But it's a very significant one.

Greg Bobrinskoy is an Associate Editor at RealClearPolitics.

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Now, a day before Election Day, the Latino vote is polling heavily against McCain. A Zogby poll showed 21 percent supported McCain with 70 percent for Obama. Another poll by the Pew Hispanic Center found 23 percent supporting McCain and 66 percent supporting Obama. The man who has won numerous awards from Hispanic organizations and garnered 70 percent of the Hispanic vote in his last Senate race is set to lose this election when stronger support from the Latino community, especially in states such as Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and Florida, would place him in much better position to win.

They are biting the hand that "fed" them.
They think Obama will feed them more!

After Michael Savage decided to endorse McCain, his show contacted McCain's campaign, and invited him to come on for an interview. Savage said he never heard back from McAmnesty's campaign manager.

I'm sure the illegal invasion was one of a few issues, McCain would not have wanted to discuss with Savage. Here's a news bulletin to future GOP office seekers - if you decide to dismiss the concerns of those who believe in Borders, Language and Culture, do so at your own peril.