Thread: Latino Giant to Change U.S. Politics

Latino Giant to Change U.S. Politics
A Commentary by Froma Harrop
Tuesday, May 04, 2010

And, so it begins…


SAN ANTONIO -- It was over frozen lattes three blocks from the Alamo that Lydia Camarillo and I discussed the wave of Latino voters expected to change politics in Texas -- and America. Camarillo is vice president of the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project, a group that signs up new Hispanic voters and spurs them to the polls.

Some Texans predict that the "Latino giant" won't fully flex its political might until 2012. Some say 2014. Others see the tough immigration law in Arizona moving the impact to this year. All agree that when Latinos arrive at the polls in huge numbers, the results won't please Republicans.

"I think they know that the day is coming," Camarillo said. "That's why they are coming up with obstructions, such as voter ID laws."

And there's not much Republicans can do about a surging Latino electorate in the short term. Even if they appeal to more Latino voters and Hispanic turnout stays weak, the raw numbers may overwhelm them.

As Rice University political analyst Bob Stein explains, over the past three decades, Latino support for Democrats in Texas has actually fallen from 75 percent to 60 percent. But as Democrats lost 15 percentage points, they almost doubled in the number of votes received because of the explosive growth in the Latino population.

"The Democrats can afford to lose a significant percentage of the vote and still gain on the base," Stein said. "Elections are determined by how many votes you get."

And the expansion of that base is extraordinary. Steve Murdock, former director of the U.S. Census and now a professor at Rice University, has the numbers.

In 1980, there were 3 million Hispanics in Texas. In 2008, the total nearly reached 9 million, and projections put it at almost 10 million this year.

"One national figure that sticks out is the change in the under-20 population," Murdock told me. Between 2000 and 2008, the number of 20-and-under non-Hispanic whites fell by 2.6 million, while Latinos increased by 3.8 million.

"In many ways, the Texas of today is the U.S. of tomorrow," he added.

Will events in Arizona raise Latino turnout this year? While many Hispanics oppose illegal immigration, this law is being perceived as singling out their kind, and Texas Republicans know it.

Republican Gov. Rick Perry, who is running for re-election, quickly distanced himself from the Arizona law. Democrats are sitting back and hoping this will help their candidate, former Houston Mayor Bill White.

Texas will probably gain three or four U.S. House seats in the new census. The state legislature, working with the governor, will help draw the new district lines. Suppose White wins and Republicans lose their majority in the Texas House, which now stands at only three seats. Another messy redistricting process is guaranteed, but this time to the Democrats' advantage.

But aren't Latinos conservative on such Republican-dominated issues as abortion, same-sex marriage and school choice? I asked Lydia Camarillo about this.

"My father didn't want me to wear pants because I'm a woman," she answered with a nod, "but he did want me to be a teacher."

Latinos do want universal health coverage and pre-kindergarten classes for their children, she noted. "The community is conservative in how it thinks, but it doesn't vote conservative."

And this Arizona law is unleashing Latino anxieties, as similar proposals pop up in other states. If the courts don't overturn it, Camarillo said, "you're going to see people understanding that the only way they can protect themselves is by registering and voting."

Clearly, it's not sage politics to pit a shrinking Republican base against the growing Latino giant. That may or may not work this time, but the population trend lines do not bode well for the Republican future.

http://tinyurl.com/244x6jd

http://www.rasmussenreports.com

Well maybe it is time to stop bringing so many people from Latino countrys into the United States and no amnesty, before we destroy the two party system! or is that just too much to ask for!

Here this Republicans....NO AMNESTY!!!

Getting tired of these lies. Latinos do not all vote the same. If we did, abortion would be banned in the US!!

Maybe she has never heard of "you don't speak for me".

"I think they know that the day is coming," Camarillo said. "That's why they are coming up with obstructions, such as voter ID laws."

How are voter ID laws an obstruction if you're here legally? Sounds to me as if Camarillo is admitting, in a round about way, that illegal invaders are voting in our elections.

Many Latinos are Republican from articles I have read. This woman is full of hot air and empty promises LIKE OBAMA!........LOL!

And if they voted,how many are really legal?

This is just some liberal spin, to wit: "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em"

Myself, I think every citizen should have to show a Birth Certificate when registering to vote....especially since we have so many illegal and legal resisence in the U.S. which is good they did it the right way, BUT the fact is only U.S. citizens are aloud to vote and more precautions should be taken to reserve that right.

I think it's racist and inaccurate to claim that Latinos vote as a block. I don't think they do. I don't even think a lot of Latinos even think of themselves as Latinos. They think of themselves as Americans like the rest of US. People who are labeled "Latinos" by these advocacy groups need to stand up, speak out and tell these phony political communists trying to steer their votes one way or another, to shut up.

Camarillo is vice president of the Southwest Voter Registration Education Project, a group that signs up new Hispanic voters and spurs them to the polls.

Sounds like a socialist front group. When I became of age to vote I needed no group to help me to go to the courthouse to register. Simple process.

and,

Some Texans predict that the "Latino giant" won't fully flex its political might until 2012. Some say 2014. Others see the tough immigration law in Arizona moving the impact to this year. All agree that when Latinos arrive at the polls in huge numbers, the results won't please Republicans.

Oh, that nasty law in Arizona that just passed pops its ugly head up again. How convenient. This where AMERICANS of Latino ancestry need to step up and denounce such rhetoric. And Thanks Froma for looking after the interest of the Republican Party, or is that just a weak attempt at a scare tactic? While the Republican Party may indeed need to resort to such scare tactics, your attempt is lame and pathetic!

and,

"I think they know that the day is coming," Camarillo said. "That's why they are coming up with obstructions, such as voter ID laws."

I had no idea that for over three decades now I have voted, and having had to show an ID was an obstruction. Now I am mad! Where was the communist groups looking after my interest and inconveniences. You despicable, commie pig!

and,

In 1980, there were 3 million Hispanics in Texas. In 2008, the total nearly reached 9 million, and projections put it at almost 10 million this year.

No mention in those numbers of legal vs illegal voters. Would Texas' Hispanic population growth have anything to do with illegal immigration? Or is Texas immune from such possibilities,.........hmmm Rick Perry?

and,

Republican Gov. Rick Perry, who is running for re-election, quickly distanced himself from the Arizona law. Democrats are sitting back and hoping this will help their candidate, former Houston Mayor Bill White.

Politics as usual. This two party system plays well together.

and,

Texas will probably gain three or four U.S. House seats in the new census. The state legislature, working with the governor, will help draw the new district lines. Suppose White wins and Republicans lose their majority in the Texas House, which now stands at only three seats. Another messy redistricting process is guaranteed, but this time to the Democrats' advantage.

I wonder how many illegals will gain representation in the new census? I wonder when the commie party will run a illegal alien for congress? Birth certificate? Who needs a stinken' birth certificate?

and,

But aren't Latinos conservative on such Republican-dominated issues as abortion, same-sex marriage and school choice? I asked Lydia Camarillo about this.

"My father didn't want me to wear pants because I'm a woman," she answered with a nod, "but he did want me to be a teacher."

Latinos do want universal health coverage and pre-kindergarten classes for their children, she noted. "The community is conservative in how it thinks, but it doesn't vote conservative."

Yea, that sounds real conservative there Lydia. Or are you confusing that with machismo? After all Chavez and Castro are macho,.....or are they conservatives?

Get off you duff there Rick Perry,.....the left field position has already been filled.