QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY PRESS RELEASE

Democratic incumbent U.S. Sen. Robert Menendez has pulled ahead in the New Jersey Senate race, with a 49 – 45 percent likely voter lead over Republican State Sen. Tom Kean, Jr., according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent remain undecided and 18 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind before Election Day.

This compares to a 48 – 45 percent Kean lead in a September 20 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University.

In this latest survey, Republican likely voters back Kean 89 – 8 percent, while Democrats back Menendez 86 – 11 percent. Independent voters split with 45 percent for Menendez and 44 percent for Kean. Women back the Democrat 51 – 42 percent, while men split with 48 percent for Kean and 46 percent for Menendez. Men backed Kean 53-41 percent in the September 20 survey.

By a 51 – 18 percent margin, New Jersey voters say Kean is “honest and trustworthy,” with 30 percent undecided, compared to 50 – 13 percent September 20.

Voters split 38 – 39 percent on whether Menendez is “honest and trustworthy,” with 24 percent undecided, compared to 39 – 29 percent September 20.

“Sen. Menendez seems to be beating back the ethical questions facing his campaign and in fact has improved his standing, particularly among male voters,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“The important thing at this point is that the barrage of negative ads is not making things any worse for the Democratic incumbent. At the same time, the Menendez ads attacking Sen. Tom Kean Jr., may be neutralizing the ethics issue. But even though the lead has shifted in this race, it looks like the two will be neck and neck down the stretch to Election Day,” Richards added.

New Jersey voters give Menendez a split 32 – 32 percent favorability rating, with 22 percent mixed and 13 percent who don’t know enough to form an opinion.

Kean gets a 34 – 18 percent favorability rating, with 25 percent mixed and 22 percent who don’t know enough to form an opinion.

Among New Jersey likely voters, 76 percent have read or heard something about ethical issues concerning Menendez. Of that group, 49 percent say they are less likely to vote for the incumbent because of the ethics question, while 44 percent say it won’t influence their vote.

The ethical questions raised about Menendez are “serious,” 57 percent of voters say, while 33 percent say they are part of a “smear campaign.”

If Kean is elected, he will vote to support President George W. Bush “too often,” 39 percent of voters say, while 9 percent say “not often enough,” and 42 percent say “about right.”

New Jersey voters disapprove 57 – 38 percent of the job President Bush is doing and disapprove 63 – 32 percent of Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq.

The U.S. is losing the war in Iraq, voters say 55 – 27 percent, but winning the war on worldwide terrorism, voters say 43 – 39 percent.

From October 4 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 761 New Jersey likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and nationally as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.


http://www.politicsnj.com/default0406.asp