Thread: Poll: Rubio behind Trump in Florida

By NICK GASS 03/07/16 02:00 PM EST

Marco Rubio trails Donald Trump in his home state of Florida, where he has all but guaranteed victory, according to the results of the latest Monmouth University poll out Monday — and his support appears to be collapsing among those yet to vote.

Trump earned the support of 38 percent of likely Republican primary voters, while Rubio drew 30 percent. The gulf between the top two candidates and the rest of the field is wider — Texas Sen. Ted Cruz finished third with 17 percent, while Ohio Gov. John Kasich took just 10 percent, and 1 percent chose Ben Carson, though his name was only included on the first day of the Thursday-to-Sunday survey period. Just 5 percent remain undecided among those candidates.

The Florida senator holds an 11-point lead over Trump (41 percent to 30 percent) in the southern part of the state, while Trump has run up a 22-point advantage in the central region (44 percent to 22 percent). The race is closest in the northern regions of the state, with Trump leading 36 percent to 32 percent.

Roughly four-in-10 (38 percent) of likely voters said they are completely decided on their choice, while 25 percent said they have a strong preference. Another 9 percent said they have a slight preference, while 10 percent said they are truly undecided. Among Trump voters, 67 percent said they have decided to vote for the real-estate magnate, while smaller shares said they have made up their minds on Kasich (59 percent), Rubio (55 percent) or Cruz (48 percent).

Rubio leads considerably among the 19 percent who said they have already voted, grabbing 48 percent to Trump's 23 percent. Among those who have not yet voted, however, Trump leads Rubio 42 percent to 26 percent. As of Monday morning, about 600,000 Florida Republicans had cast absentee ballots by mail or in-person early votes. That’s more than a quarter of the expected GOP electorate of 2 million in the closed primary state.

Monmouth conducted the telephone poll from March 3-6, surveying 403 likely Republican primary voters drawn from a list of registered GOP voters who participated in either the 2012 or 2014 primaries or in both past general elections. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Trump leads Rubio by a larger margin in the RealClearPolitics average of state polls, 44.7 percent to 26 percent, with Cruz and Kasich trailing behind at 12.3 percent and 8.3 percent, respectively. The average also includes some residual support for Carson, however — he's at 4.7 percent.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-g...da-2016-220377