Wisconsin Primary Could Be Key to Contested Convention


  • By     MEGHAN KENEALLY
  • ALANA ABRAMSON

Apr 4, 2016, 10:42 AM ET



Neither Donald Trump nor Hillary Clinton, their respective party’s front-runner, are ahead in the latest polls in Wisconsin, where Sen. Ted Cruz is leading Trump by 10 percentage points and Sen. Bernie Sanders is leading Clinton by 4 points.

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If that polling, released by Marquette University last week, holds true and Cruz wins Tuesday, Trump's inevitability might be in jeopardy, ABC News political analyst Matthew Dowd said.

"If he would win Wisconsin, he likely gets it, if he loses Wisconsin he likely doesn't," Dowd said of Trump’s securing the nomination outright.

"It's still possible, but much more difficult."

Delegate Math Determining the Conventions

There are 42 delegates up for grabs by the Republicans. Candidates have the potential to win all 42 delegates, but would need to win both the statewide vote and all of the state’s congressional districts in order to do so.

A Cruz win would mean Trump has an even smaller window to clinch the nomination by the time voting ends in June, increasing the likelihood that Cleveland will be a contested convention.

A Trump win in Wisconsin, particularly one where he wins all 42 delegates, would give him a chance to widen his delegate lead, lowering the percentage he has to win for the nomination, and giving him momentum heading into his home state of New York.

Additionally, it could also cement his credibility among unbound delegates who are deciding whom they will support at the convention in July.
Scott Olson/Getty Images
Democratic Fight for Momentum

For the Democrats, there are a total of 96 delegates available, 86 of which are pledged and 10 others who are superdelegates: the party leaders or elected officials who can support a candidate of their choosing at any point in the process, including as far out as the Philadelphia convention in July.

"On the Democratic side, it's important because if Bernie Sanders wins [Wisconsin], he's won six out of the last seven states," Dowd said.

"I don't think Hillary loses the nomination because of a loss in Wisconsin, but it complicates her life greatly. ... It continues his momentum and it forces her to rely on superdelegates."

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