Thread: Ted Cruz’s Delegate Game Shows that He’d be a Better President than Trump By a LOT

Ted Cruz’s Delegate Game Shows that He’d be a Better President than Trump
By a LOT. Okay?

By: Leon H. Wolf (Diary) | April 4th, 2016 at 12:00 PM | 36

By now it is clear that the Trump campaign has been thoroughly beaten to the punch and destroyed by the Cruz campaign at the delegate selection game. The Trump campaign is using this as further evidence that Ted Cruz is some kind of cheater… I guess because he is better at taking advantage of the clearly stated written rules?

I view it as evidence that Ted Cruz would be a vastly superior president to Donald Trump.

The possibility of a contested convention was a real one before the first votes were even cast. Many, many people who were/are seasoned political observers looked at the dynamics of this race and predicted that 2016 would be (or at least might be) the first contested convention since 1976. Accordingly, stories began leaking that, at the very least, the Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich camps were making contingency plans for winning a contested convention.

Trump, meanwhile, just assumed that he was going to win, an assumption that he became even more married to after winning New Hampshire and South Carolina. Per Sopan Deb:

It now seems clear that Ted Cruz had a plan in place in virtually every state to help pack every available bound delegate slot with a delegate who was not personally loyal to Trump. The idea behind this was to create a cadre of delegates who would be bound to Trump on the first ballot, but loyal to Cruz (or at least someone else) on the second ballot of a potentially contested convention.

Even if Cruz isn’t able to plant enough of these people at the convention to get him to 1,237 on the second (or third) ballot, the optics of Trump hemorrhaging delegates every round will be a tremendous advantage to the not-Trump faction at the convention.

See, what Cruz is doing is what’s known as “contingency planning.” Obviously, good leaders always want to have their “Plan A” work, where possible. but good leaders know that this doesn’t always (or even almost always) happen, so they have “Plan B” ready in case “Plan A” goes sideways, and probably a Plan C or Plan D for good measure.

Bad, incompetent leaders only have a Plan A, and if and when Plan A goes wrong, they just whine about how they were treated unfairly. That’s Trump. Good leaders hope for the best but plan for the worst. That’s especially true involving any plan that depends on human beings to act/vote in a certain way. It turns out, human beings can’t always be controlled or even predicted.

If Trump the President would be anything like Trump the candidate, then he would be an even bigger disaster than we have previously imagined. Meanwhile, whatever you think of Ted Cruz, he’s shown a remarkable and borderline ruthless ability to plan ahead and execute – traits that would serve any potential President well.

http://www.redstate.com/leon_h_wolf/...esident-trump/

No, Leon. That is not what it shows. What it shows is that your candidate is losing. He is losing by states, he is losing by votes, and he is losing by delegates. Rigged systems that don't reflect the will of the voters is not winning, it's losing.

We win with people like Donald Trump who expose these flaws in our system to make it better. Trump will overcome these shenanigans and prevail with a clear victory on the first ballot, and Wiley Coyote can return to his lair in Texas with his tail between his legs where he belongs.

We are trying to AVOID ANOTHER TRICKY POLITICIAN in the WH...

Trump is not perfect, no one is. He is not a politician but a good businessman so slippery cruz has an edge on the lowdown underhanded stuff but is still not electable - not liked at all. He can push and deceive all he wants,

USA overall will not have the likes of him - a canadian born latino with ties to globalism, big oil, gas, wanted a 500% increase in foreign workers, women's issues etc, etc.

A New York Times article re the delegate counts - the graphs do not paste but can see at the site link...


How the Rest of the
Delegate Race Could Unfold

By GREGOR AISCH, JOSH KATZ and K.K. REBECCA LAI UPDATED April 9, 2016

Here are some ways the Republican and Democratic nominating contests could unfold. Adjust the sliders to see how the outcomes can change. Each line in the charts represents one possible outcome.

Republicans

Despite Senator Ted Cruz’s victory in Wisconsin, Donald J. Trump’s series of wins in past primaries has left him with a sizable lead in the race for the Republican nomination.

If Mr. Trump maintains his current level of support in the remaining races, he could win a delegate majority before the convention, but it will be close.

*(chart here with interactive slider)
Average results after April 9

Trump742 Cruz529 Kasich143

Trump 44%
Cruz 43%
Kasich 13%

No other candidate has a realistic chance of capturing the delegates required to win the nomination outright. Even if Ted Cruz were to win all of the remaining delegates, it is a near impossibility for him to reach the 1,237-delegate threshold.

Though Mr. Trump is in a strong position, his path to winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination is not assured. Breaching the 1,237-delegate threshold requires him to maintain the same level of voter support in the contests ahead. If the dynamics of the race shift against him, he will fall short. Mr. Cruz and Gov. John Kasich of Ohio will try to earn enough delegates between them to deny Mr. Trump a majority and force the convention to undertake a second ballot. At that point, anything can happen.

In addition, there are several caveats that add uncertainty to these numbers. In a few states, there are delegates still to be allocated — for example, there is Missouri, where 12 delegates have yet to be apportioned to the statewide winner. (In the uncertified results, Mr. Trump currently leads Mr. Cruz by less than 0.2 percent of the vote.) Even delegates that have already been allocated can be reassigned.

The delegate count as reported by The A.P. lags the total vote somewhat. In the chart below, we have included delegate estimates from The Green Papers, which include the unallocated delegates from states that have already voted.

Mr. Trump’s delegate lead
*(another chart here)

Reported by The A.P.
Estimated by The Green Papers


Democrats

Bernie Sanders won the overwhelming majority of delegates in the most recent contests on March 26 and April 5, but continues to trail Hillary Clinton by a large margin in the delegate count.

Mrs. Clinton can win slightly less than half of the remaining vote and still earn a majority of the pledged delegates by June.

& (another chart here)

Clinton 1287 Sanders 1037
Average results after April 9

Clinton 49%
Sanders 51%

Democratic delegates are awarded proportionally by congressional district, and in states that have voted so far, Mrs. Clinton has won more than half of the vote, on average. The lack of winner-take-all states on the Democratic side makes it tougher for Mr. Sanders to close the delegate gap.

Mr. Sanders is also significantly trailing Mrs. Clinton in superdelegates, the roughly 700 Democratic Party officials whose support counts toward the nomination. In past elections, superdelegates have supported the candidate who receives the most pledged delegates, and they are free to switch candidates at any time before the convention in July. To have a shot at overtaking Mrs. Clinton in pledged delegates, Mr. Sanders would need a series of large victories in coming contests, increasing his vote share to almost 60 percent, on average.

Mrs. Clinton’s delegate lead

Reported by The A.P.
Estimated by The Green Papers

*(another chart here)

This interactive delegate calculator uses each state’s delegate allocation rules, along with estimates of how favorable each district is for each candidate. To compute these estimates, we used a model based on demographics and results from past primaries and caucuses. Delegate totals are as reported by The Associated Press.

Election results from The Associated Press

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...=politics&_r=0

CORRECTOMUNDO, artist!!

You're right, Trump is not perfect, but he's as close to perfect as we've had in many decades and as close as we'll all get in our lifetimes and several generations of more to come. I was talking with friends the other day, and everyone, Republican, Democrat and Independent, agrese that if we don't get Trump to the White House this year, then our chances of ever reversing this race to bottom will be beyond our ability to do so. There is a universal law of "beyond the point of no return", and we are at that point. We stop it now, or we never stop it because we won't have the numbers and financial means to do so.

Americans have to face the hard reality that our federal government, all three branches, gave up long ago on representing our interests, security, economy, jobs, incomes, domestic tranquility, blessings of liberty, general welfare and overall well-being. it's a bitter pill to swallow for so many of US. This level of betrayal is astonishing even for those of us who figured it out a decade or more ago.

But we either swallow it and go along with what's happening, or we spit it out and fight to save our nation by electing someone we know views our country, citizens and the world the same way we do. My prayer is that there are still 250 million pissed off Americans with the courage and integrity to stand up for our country and fellow citizens on election days.

Any article from Redstate concerning Tump is biased and negative.

Yes, I've noticed that!! I thought we'd post some of the articles for rebuttal. Oh God, Cruz is on TV calling Trump a "mobster". Wiley Coyote is really feeling the Trump Burn. Have at it, Lyin' Ted. The more people see and hear you, the more they'll crave some Trump.