Thread: With Trump, Clinton Deadlocked, Race Is In 'Brexit' Zone: IBD/TIPP Poll

With Trump, Clinton Deadlocked, Race Is In 'Brexit' Zone: IBD/TIPP Poll

ED CARSON
5:47 AM ET

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton remained tied at 44% with the election just four days away, according to the latest IBD/TIPP Presidential Election Tracking Poll.

Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson continues to get 4%, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein has 2%.

On an unrounded basis, Trump has 44.1% and Clinton 44%, with Johnson at 3.9% and Stein at 1.9%. In a two-way race, Clinton gets 44.3% and Trump 44%.

The latest survey of 867 likely voters from Oct. 29-Nov. 2 has a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points. On a weighted basis, the poll has 329 Democrats, 291 Republicans and 234 independents.

Just five days ago, Clinton's lead over Trump was 4 points. That was right after FBI Director James Comey informed Congress that he was reopening the bureau's probe into Clinton's private email server while she was secretary of state.

Other national polls also continue to tighten. The Real Clear Politics average of seven presidential tracking polls has Clinton leading Trump by just 1.9 points in a four-way race. That's down from 7.1 points as recently as Oct. 17.

State polls also show a closer race. RCP sees Clinton's lead among lean/likely states down to just 46 electoral votes vs. 146 on Oct. 29. With no toss-ups, RCP sees Clinton with 273 electoral votes and Trump 265, with 270 necessary for a majority.

'Brexit' Zone

Still, most political analysts say that while the contest is closer, Clinton is likely to come out victorious over her populist rival.

Sound familiar? In the final week before Britons voted on whether to leave the European Union, seven out of nine polls said "remain" would win, with one survey showing a 10-point lead. But ultimately "leave" won, 52%-48%.

Trump, for his part, has vowed to pull off "Brexit times five." And he's riding a similar populist wave.

"In both the Brexit vote and the U.S. presidential campaign, a surge in populist sentiment has occurred within each electorate," said Ragavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which runs the IBD/TIPP poll.

On both sides of the Atlantic, a large and growing share of voters has felt ignored by the political establishment and views immigration and globalization with suspicion.

Brexit pollsters failed to realize how strongly working class voters would turn out to vote against staying in the EU.

Trump poses similar challenges because he attracts and repels different groups than a typical Republican nominee. He's going to win the white working class by huge margins, but will that offset weakness among college graduates and other groups?

Less than a week ago, Clinton seemed to be cruising to victory, with substantial leads in the IBD/TIPP tracking poll and the RCP average. But the FBI email bombshell has revived voters' long-standing unease with Clinton and put the Democratic nominee and her surrogates on the defensive.

President Obama, who on Monday declined to criticize his FBI director, on Wednesday appeared to chide Comey for his 11th-hour disclosure.

"When there are investigations, we don't operate on innuendo," Obama said. "We don't operate on incomplete information. We don't operate on leaks."

Meanwhile, Trump has been disciplined. He's kept the attention on Clinton and taken aim at ObamaCare, which is slated to see premiums skyrocket by an average 25% in 2017.

That's helped the GOP rally behind Trump. Now 88.9% of Republicans support him, up from 83.7% five days earlier. Clinton attracts 88.1% of Democrats, up 2.2 points over that span.
Independents Swing Right

Trump's lead among independents has widened to 10 points, 45%-35% vs. 41%-34% five days earlier. That's better than Mitt Romney in 2012. In the final IBD/TIPP tracking poll reading of the 2012 election, Romney topped Obama among independents 52%-46%.

But the Republican nominee may need to do even better with swing voters to carry him to victory. Trump's recent rise among independents seems to have come at the expense of Johnson. The Libertarian nominee's support within this key group has eroded from 12% to a still-significant 8% over the last five days. Also, 7% of independents are undecided.

Just 43% of independents view Trump favorably vs. 55% who have an unfavorable view. But Clinton is viewed unfavorably with middle-of-the-road voters, 69%-30%.

Both campaigns, however, focused on turning out core supporters Wednesday. Obama, appearing in the battleground state of North Carolina, said Trump has "vilified minorities, vilified people with disabilities."

Trump made several stops in Florida, a must-win state for him. "We don't want to blow this," he told a Miami crowd.

Clinton has more money and a bigger organization than Trump to get her voters to the polls. But Trump supporters may not need as much prodding to turn out. Sixty-eighty percent of Trump backers strongly support him, vs. 63% for Clinton backers.

http://www.investors.com/politics/tr...-ibdtipp-poll/

Yesterday, Clinton was up 1%. Now they're tied. Trump Rising!!!