Trump Declares He Won't Attack Iran Before Midterm Elections, Oil Plunges

Thursday, Oct 08, 2026 - 12:25 PM

Summary


  • Oil plunged after Trump said on Truth Social the US will not attack Iran before the November midterms.
  • Late Wednesday reports said Pentagon was ordered to prepare Iran attack options for before midterms.
  • Iran expanded tanker attacks beyond the Strait of Hormuz into the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.
  • In Saudi Arabia, Riyadh airport suffers direct missile attack from Iran-aligned Houthis.

US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Yes 22% · No 79%
View full market & trade on Polymarket Oil Plunges As Trump Says No Attacks Before Midterms

President Trump just issued a new Truth Social Post Thursday just after noon time (eastern), wherein he declared "we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" in November. Oil dropped on the statement (though is still up on the day)...



The full Trump post below, wherein Trump also claims that active discussions with the Iranians are still happening, and that oil is "flowing in record numbers"...

Quick Iranian rection:
U.S. and Israeli officials say Iranian leaders are deeply suspicious of Trump's statements. The officials said Iranian leaders want to avoid a third surprise attack, reports Axios.
To recall, The Atlantic reported late Wednesday that the Pentagon is preparing strike options for the Commander-in-Chief to consider, and that Trump may actually pull the trigger before the midterm elections - though the report emphasizes that the decision was still being debated:
After months of on-again, off-again fighting, the United States hasn’t struck Iran in several weeks. The stretch of relative tranquility is coinciding with the final phase of the midterm-election campaign, and the assumption has been that President Trump will want to keep it going through November 3 so as not to remind voters of an unpopular war that is dragging Republican candidates down nationwide.
But that may not be what happens. The White House has asked the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iranian targets that could be exercised ahead of the midterms, according to two administration officials. The planning underscores just how much the president wants to reduce gas prices and demonstrate progress in the conflict before the vote, administration officials told us.
And yet a renewed outbreak of direct bombing would likely actually serve to do the opposite, given oil prices have tended to shoot up on headlines of major direct escalation.
Reports out of Iran confirmed earlier Wednesday that negotiations are 'stalemated' - also as the Iranians have ramped up targeting tankers with drones in the Strait of Hormuz over the last week.
Iran Expands Tanker Assaults Beyond Narrow Confines Of Strait Of Hormuz

Iran has significantly widened its maritime operations by shifting attacks beyond the narrow confines of the Strait of Hormuz into the broader waters of the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. Over a recent 24-hour window, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) may have struck two commercial ships outside traditional chokepoints, including a vessel off Qatar, as well as a Very Large Crude Carrier near the United Arab Emirates. The latter instance has less confirmation at this point.
This escalation indicates a tactical shift, given the IRGC is no longer waiting for vessels to explicitly violate its designated maritime enforcement corridors. Instead, any ship suspected of trying to bypass Iranian blockades now faces active targeting across the entire regional waterway. This at least is what Tehran is likely seeking to demonstrate to Washington and its Gulf allies, and comes after record numbers of vessels have been making it through so far this month under US naval watch and protocol.



Source: UKMTOThe first of these incidents, which was widely reported overnight and is now being given greater confirmation Thursday, occurred 51 nautical miles north of Madinat ash Shamal, Qatar. The vessel was struck multiple times, in what appears an effort to specifically to kill crew members. An unknown amount of casualties has been reported:
It said there were multiple casualties as a result of the attack. The extent of the casualties is unknown, however, in previous UKMTO warnings the word “casualties” has been used to describe seafarer deaths rather than injuries.
The Guardian details further of the unusual location of the attack:
The vessel was in the Gulf, about 500km (300 miles) west of the strait of Hormuz, when it reported being struck “by multiple projectiles”, the UK Maritime Trade Operations said on Wednesday. The UK authority did not specify the origin of the ship.
Wednesday’s attack comes as strikes on tankers sailing through the strait of Hormuz hit their ⁠highest weekly level since the Iran war began, according to maritime security firms, as oil prices climbed above $100 per barrel.
Oil Price writes, "A tanker has been struck by multiple projectiles north of Qatar’s tip in the first such attack deep within the Persian Gulf in nearly a month." Not only have drone and missile attacks on vessels picked up over the last nearly two weeks, but casualties as well.
"In the *week to 5 October, there were at least 12 attacks *on oil, liquefied natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas tankers around the strait, according to data from three security sources," continues The Guardian. "On Tuesday, India’s ​foreign ministry said 12 crew members were injured after an attack on a Panama-flagged oil tanker passing through the strait of Hormuz."
Tanker Fire Off UAE: Second Vessel Attacked?

The second of these events, off UAE, has been less confirmed. Newsquawk notes:
Oil tanker assembly site reportedly explodes near UAE, Mizan reports; "Ocean sources reported the detection of a fire in the Gulf of Oman, approximately 30 nautical miles east of Fujairah"
And via DropSite News:
Possibly second vessel hit near UAE’s Fujairah bypass port.
— Drop Site (@DropSiteNews) October 8, 2026
Maritime and satellite open source channels have been observing a fire, with potential US military assets circling the area, at the below location:



If this second attack is confirmed, it marks a serious escalation in terms of Iran's efforts to extend its own blockade and 'answer' to so many ships getting through under the US Navy's protocol.
Houthis Attacking Saudi Airports

From bad to worse in the Saudi-Houthi war...
WATCH: Footage confirms a Houthi strike hit a stationary aircraft at Riyadh Airport, Saudi Arabia. https://t.co/0FLJXDyA4U
— Clash Report (@clashreport) October 8, 2026
More Latest Regional Developments

via Newsquawk

  • The White House has asked the Pentagon to develop strike options against Iranian targets that could be exercised ahead of the midterms, according to two administration officials. The planning underscores just how much the president wants to reduce gas prices and demonstrate progress in the conflict before the vote. The Atlantic
  • The US military has been ordered to be ready for possible Iran strikes as President Trump weighs the timing, with the Pentagon said to have instructed CENTCOM several days ago to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran; any campaign is expected to be a joint US-Israeli one including large bombing of Iranian energy, infrastructure and nuclear targets. Axios
  • US President Trump stated that he doesn't think an Iran deal is something he wants to do. It was separately reported that Trump said the Iranians are ready to offer us anything to stop what's happening, even though an agreement with them is not the option he truly wants, while Trump was also reported to say that Witkoff is now working on reaching an agreement with Iran and is making very good progress, according to Al Jazeera.
  • The US military has been ordered to be ready for possible Iran strikes as President Trump weighs the timing, with the Pentagon said to have instructed US CENTCOM several days ago to conclude preparations for resuming major combat operations in Iran, according to Axios. The directive didn't include a specific date for launching strikes and President Trump hasn't made any final decisions, although US and Israeli sources said it could happen before the US midterm election. Furthermore, it was stated that if major combat operations resume, they are likely to be a joint US and Israeli campaign and expected to include large bombing of Iranian energy, infrastructure and nuclear targets.
  • US President Trump and his national security team have discussed possibly resuming large-scale US military operations in Iran in the coming weeks, including the option of launching strikes before the midterm elections next month, according to NBC.
  • The US is stepping up preparations and has completed operational plans in case President Trump orders strikes against Iran, i24 News reported citing sources. The report added that forces at Fort Bragg are ready to deploy to any theatre within 18 hours.
  • Iran's working assumption is that there will be a US attack, according to Jerusalem Post's Stein, citing two regional diplomats, while the debate in Tehran is if they should attack first.
  • US CENTCOM rejected IRGC claims that the Strait of Hormuz is closed and that Iran has full control over it, while it stated that traffic is flowing through the strait carrying commercial goods and energy supplies, including 20mln bbls of crude.
  • Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei said Iran's considerations and conditions for ending the war on all fronts and restoring security to the Persian Gulf region and the Strait have been clearly and firmly explained, and the necessary response to US proposals will be provided through mediators. He also stated that Iran will continue its efforts to strengthen trust and interaction between regional countries, while he stated that Tehran has spared no effort, in consultation with Oman as another coastal state, to restore security to the Strait of Hormuz, and the two sides had agreed on the geographical coordinates for safe transit routes and on how the agreement will be presented internationally, while the agreement between Iran and Oman on the safe routes of Hormuz will soon be reflected in international references.
  • Iranian intelligence services are reportedly targeting the US Ramstein and Spangdahlem air bases in Germany, WiWo reported. The report added that Iranian intelligence services are reportedly also targeting other US bases in Europe and planning complex attacks, with the UK also said to be a potential target.
  • Pakistan's Army Chief said they are working to reduce the differences between the US and Iran, according to Nour News.
  • Reports of explosions heard and fires visible in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, according to Sabereen News. Satellite images also showed smoke rising from the Abqaiq oil facilities in Saudi Arabia, and a fire at both Abqaiq facilities and Tanjib gas plant.
  • Oil tanker assembly site reportedly exploded near UAE, Mizan reported; "Ocean sources reported the detection of a fire in the Gulf of Oman, approximately 30 nautical miles east of Fujairah."
  • Yemen's Houthis said they attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh with a ballistic missile and stated Saudi airspace will be a target of operations except over Mecca and Medina.
  • Syria officially denied reports of sending troops to Yemen, with its presidential media advisor stating the reports are lies with no truth, and affirmed that Syria stands with Saudi Arabia's security.



Trump Declares He Won't Attack Iran Before Midterm Elections, Oil Plunges | ZeroHedge