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  1. #1
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Trump's big sweep: Why a winner's aura matters more than math

    Trump's big sweep: Why a winner's aura matters more than math

    By Howard Kurtz
    Published April 26, 2016
    FoxNews.com

    Presidential campaigns are about media, math and momentum. But in the wake of Donald Trump’s five-state sweep in the Northeast yesterday, it’s time to add another measure.

    And that is psychology.

    Which may be his biggest advantage.

    By adding Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Connecticut and Rhode Island to his New York landslide, Trump is clearly riding a wave of momentum and positive media coverage.

    But when you get to math, the journalistic nitpickers come up with various scenarios in which Trump may not get to 1,237, leaving him vulnerable to a contested convention. Fair enough. (Yes, any other front-runner would have been declared the de facto nominee, but The Donald is a rather controversial fellow.)

    Which brings us to the psychology surrounding a candidate who has won state after state in all regions of the country—from Alabama to Massachusetts, from Georgia to New Hampshire, from Florida to Nevada, from South Carolina to Illinois. And look at the margins: 46 percent in Arizona, 46 percent in Florida, 47 percent in Mississippi, 60 percent in New York.

    Ted Cruz won Wisconsin by an impressive 48 percent, but outside of his 44 percent victory in Texas, and nearly matching Trump with 41 percent in Missouri, most of his wins have come in caucus states where he has outperformed his rival at the inside game.

    Cruz pivoted to a different target last night, saying the media were having "palpitations" over Trump's expected big night and that he is the fourth estate's "chosen" candidate. That's become a standard Cruz riff, even as Trump gets more than his share of bad press and biting commentary and himself complains about the "dishonest" media.

    What's true is that as Trump continues to pile up primary wins, the psychology shifts, and most of the media and political establishments now expect him to be the nominee—whether they regard that prospect with excitement or loathing. Six in 10 Republicans say in a recent poll that the candidate with the most votes should be the party’s standard-bearer, magic number or not. Two-thirds of Connecticut Republicans said the same in an exit poll yesterday.

    That leaves Cruz, who has way exceeded expectations in this campaign, in the position of arguing that he should be the alternative to Trump, even as he loses state after state. (Yes, Cruz could win Indiana next week, but that doesn’t change the overall equation.)

    And it leaves John Kasich, who has won exactly one state—his own—arguing that a fractured convention should turn to him.

    The Cruz-Kasich non-aggression pact quickly fizzled, and not just because the two rivals said they still wanted votes in the three states where they are not campaigning in deference to the other guy. It was because their supporters don’t have much in common, and they handed Trump the argument that his opponents are playing insider games to deprive him of the prize.

    Psychology isn’t everything. Trump could hit a rough patch as he toggles between appearing more presidential and mocking Kasich’s eating habits. He could underperform in California and New Jersey on June 7.

    But the mindset of Trump’s supporters will be anger and disgust if they feel he’s been cheated out of the nomination. And that may matter as much as any numbers.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016...than-math.html
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  2. #2
    Senior Member Captainron's Avatar
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    Now----and this SHOULD be a very simple problem---the GOP has to hold together. Locally, we have a new radio station that is part of the Salem Radio network. And "expert" after "expert" (with the recent exception of Mike Gallagher) seems so eager to point out Trump's moral shortcomings. No doubt his opponents are going to be going over his character with a fine tooth comb, and undoubtedly there will be LOTS of controversy. But will it ultimately matter when the people vote?

    I would say they have a case---except the track record of religious groups picking successful candidates hasn't been too good. It's amazing that George W. Bush got re-elected in 2004, IMO. I guess people figured he could wrap up the Iraq invasion despite what the signs said. And then there was the desertion of Mitt Romney in 2008, leaving an actually strong candidate twisting in the breeze. So these commentators who now dominate Talk Radio are not really worth heeding. Not so much anyway. Steve Deace is one I have been hearing spout off his drivel. Dennis Prager seems to be grudgingly lurching towards supporting Trump, if he has to.

    Most of these radio commentators are opportunists anyway. Probably have family roots deep in the Southern fundamentalist culture with some itching desire to be a political pundit. Expecting some easy life as the man who can call the play when everyone else is---obviously---blind. Their true spiritual values are probably a mile wide and an inch deep.

    So, this time, the GOP has to stick together and hopefully this time the religious fanatics can keep their cool and vote for Trump. Everyone else will be from the way it looks.
    "Men of low degree are vanity, Men of high degree are a lie. " David
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  3. #3
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    That leaves Cruz, who has way exceeded expectations in this campaign, in the position of arguing that he should be the alternative to Trump, even as he loses state after state. (Yes, Cruz could win Indiana next week, but that doesn’t change the overall equation.)

    And it leaves John Kasich, who has won exactly one state—his own—arguing that a fractured convention should turn to him.
    Americans are standing up and speaking out with their votes, and losing candidates who aren't listening should at least have enough manhood about them to know when there is no path forward they should leave the race.

    Kasich eating his way from town to town does not a President make.

    Cruz performing his latest Wiley Coyote tactic against Trump in town after town does not a President make.

    All the great things from common sense, intelligence, unwavering loyalty to the American People to courage and work ethic that were pulled together and put in Donald Trump, made a President.

    It's time for all Republicans to get behind this wonderful candidate who wants nothing more than the opportunity to help US save our nation from massive immigration, free trade treason, pointless foreign wars, and incompetent government.

    Unite and victory will be ours for all the citizens of the United States, for the first time in a very very long time.

    STAY TRUE! STAY TRUMP!!
    A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
    Save America, Deport Congress! - Judy

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