Results 1 to 8 of 8
Like Tree3Likes

Thread: Trump's new problem: Americans aren't shopping

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

  1. #1
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    55,883

    Trump's new problem: Americans aren't shopping

    Trump's new problem: Americans aren't shopping

    by Heather Long
    April 18, 2017: 1:26 PM ET

    President Trump keeps pushing "Buy American." He's planning to tout it again at a stop in Wisconsin on Tuesday.

    But the alarming reality is Americans aren't spending much money on anything right now, regardless of where it's made.

    Retail sales declined in February and March from the prior month, according the Commerce Department. Shoppers haven't been this stingy since early 2015, and it's likely to hurt the economy.

    The U.S. is on track for very sluggish 0.5% growth in the first three months this year, according to the latest estimates from Macroeconomic Advisers and the Atlanta Federal Reserve. That falls massively short of the 4% growth that Trump has promised.

    Trump loves to plug how Americans' confidence in the economy has skyrocketed since he won the election. He's right. Consumers, businesses (big and small) and investors are all feeling a lot more optimistic, according to various surveys.

    But all that enthusiasm isn't translating into more shopping, which drives the U.S. economy. About 70% of the American economy comes from people buying stuff.

    Kate Warne, a long-time investment strategist at Edward Jones, calls this the era of "skeptical optimism."

    "People are more optimistic, but they're skeptically optimistic," Warne told CNNMoney. "I don't think they are confident yet that things will change as much as they would like them too."

    Americans are in 'wait and see' mode

    In some ways, this is playing out a lot like Election 2016 where the polls said one thing and people ended up doing something else on Election Day.

    In this case, the "soft data," based on phone calls with people and business leaders, shows a lot of optimism. But the "hard data" on actual consumer and business spending is showing a lot of hesitation.

    Even the stock market, which surged 2,700 points after Trump's election and inauguration, has fallen 2% (about 500 points) in the past month. Investors have run back to "safe haven" assets like U.S. government bonds and gold.

    The common explanation is that everyone from Wall Street to Main Street is in "wait and see" mode. A big wake up call was the failure of the health care bill in March. The Trump agenda is going to take a while to implement, and some of it might have to tweaked a lot.

    "We decided to wait until policy initiatives became clearer before altering our trend economic forecast," wrote Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo in a recent note to clients. There have been a lot of cautious notes like Bullard's coming out lately from Wall Street experts.

    Republicans are a lot more optimistic than Democrats

    Another twist is that Republicans are a lot more optimistic than Democrats. The University of Michigan does one of the most widely watched surveys of consumer confidence. Researchers there have discovered an "unprecedented" partisan divide in confidence since Trump was elected.

    Overall, the University of Michigan index of consumer confidence has jumped from 87 in October to 98 today. But that headline figure masks a wild division. Democrats believe "a deep recession" is coming under Trump (their confidence index is a mere 55), while Republicans expected a "new era of robust economic growth" (their index level is a sky-high 122). Independents are in between, as you might expect.

    If half the country thinks recession is near, that might explain why retail sales are slowing, or even showing some signs of decline.

    Trump's best hope: A spring bounce

    Perhaps the best hope for Trump is that spring sunshine drives people to shop again. It's happened before. In fact, it's happened frequently in recent years where Americans stay home during the winter and then the economy really picks up in the spring and summer.

    Macroeconomic Advisers, for instance, is predicting 3.6% growth for the second quarter (April through June).

    But that won't be enough for Trump to show he's delivering a better economy than Obama did.

    "We expect growth to be slightly stronger in 2017 versus 2016. It's a modest increase, nothing dramatic," Warne of Edward Jones says.

    Trump and Congress will have to deliver on taxes while avoiding any missteps on trade or foreign policy. Even then, the optimism may not materialize into as big of a boost as some want.

    As Glenn Hubbard, dean of Columbia Business School and the former top economist for President George W. Bush, put it last month: "Animal spirits will only take you so far. Then you're like Wile E. Coyote in the cartoon. You realize there's nothing beneath your feet, and it's a long way down."

    http://money.cnn.com/2017/04/18/news...ersus-reality/
    A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
    Save America, Deport Congress! - Judy

    Support our FIGHT AGAINST illegal immigration & Amnesty by joining our E-mail Alerts at https://eepurl.com/cktGTn

  2. #2
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    55,883
    Americans don't typically spend a lot when they aren't happy. They were happy after Trump won, even a lot of Democrats who wouldn't say as much, that's why there was such a Trump Bump starting immediately after the election. Stock market, sales, shopping, jobs. Then something happened: nothing.

    To fix Obamacare, Trump needs Congress to repeal the mandates. It didn't.

    To fix Taxes, Trump needs Congress to repeal the mandates in Obamacare and move forward on tax reform. It can't because it didn't.

    To create Jobs, Trump needs Congress to repeal the mandates in Obamacare and speed through the corporate tax cuts. It won't, because it can't, because it didn't. You don't get to play the World Series or the Super Bowl over again. It's a one-time, one-shot deal.
    Last edited by Judy; 04-18-2017 at 07:06 PM.
    A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
    Save America, Deport Congress! - Judy

    Support our FIGHT AGAINST illegal immigration & Amnesty by joining our E-mail Alerts at https://eepurl.com/cktGTn

  3. #3
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    7,377
    There may be a lot of reasons.

    First off, times are uncertain - they really are. Will Pres. Trump be able to deliver on his promises of sending illegals home, redoing trade agreements, stopping the HB insanity, bringing jobs that won't go to illegals or foreign workers. Lots of uncertainty.

    People in other parts of the country are different from here. I was just talking with my daughter in the NE part of the country about this. She said, even the yuppies are realizing that our consumer driven economy is not a good thing. She said you wouldn't believe the upper middle income young people who brag about doing their shopping at thrift stores and garage sales.

    Around here, people have always done the thrift and garage sale - but they decided they saved so much that way, they could load up at Wal Mart on plastic gee gaws -

    So, maybe unhappiness, maybe uncertainty, maybe a conscience that believes waste is wrong. I don't know.

    There are also a lot of people who bought into the idea of borrowing money for college, getting all those degrees in finance or business, who no longer have a job, but the loans still need to be paid.

    I wish I knew more about corporate tax cuts - but unless there are some strings attached to those tax cuts - like not hiring illegals, or HB workers or outsourcing, it isn't going to help this country or it's workers any.

    Part of some government incentive was to give monies to counties to redo their court houses. Courthouses all over Texas had work done on them. The jobs went to outside contractors - no locals and I only saw illegals working.

    I fear that is what will happen with the infrastructure jobs as well.

  4. #4
    Senior Member posylady's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2006
    Posts
    1,553
    Most people can barely pay rent and food bills, then you have insurance car payments due. Don't forget the 40-60 year olds that no one wants to hire anymore because of healthcare premiums and risks. The companies here that are hiring do the 3-3-2-2 days on and off 12 hour shifts to keep from paying anymore for healthcare and overtime. There are still not a lot of positions opening up that offer decent pay. So people will buy what is necessary first and go without and yes watch their wallets more. People are realizing that you can do with a lot less. Hopefully Trump will help the job situation, it will take a while.

  5. #5
    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2008
    Location
    PARADISE (San Diego)
    Posts
    99,040
    NO AMNESTY

    Don't reward the criminal actions of millions of illegal aliens by giving them citizenship.


    Sign in and post comments here.

    Please support our fight against illegal immigration by joining ALIPAC's email alerts here https://eepurl.com/cktGTn

  6. #6
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    55,883
    Quote Originally Posted by nntrixie View Post
    There may be a lot of reasons.

    First off, times are uncertain - they really are. Will Pres. Trump be able to deliver on his promises of sending illegals home, redoing trade agreements, stopping the HB insanity, bringing jobs that won't go to illegals or foreign workers. Lots of uncertainty.

    People in other parts of the country are different from here. I was just talking with my daughter in the NE part of the country about this. She said, even the yuppies are realizing that our consumer driven economy is not a good thing. She said you wouldn't believe the upper middle income young people who brag about doing their shopping at thrift stores and garage sales.

    Around here, people have always done the thrift and garage sale - but they decided they saved so much that way, they could load up at Wal Mart on plastic gee gaws -

    So, maybe unhappiness, maybe uncertainty, maybe a conscience that believes waste is wrong. I don't know.

    There are also a lot of people who bought into the idea of borrowing money for college, getting all those degrees in finance or business, who no longer have a job, but the loans still need to be paid.

    I wish I knew more about corporate tax cuts - but unless there are some strings attached to those tax cuts - like not hiring illegals, or HB workers or outsourcing, it isn't going to help this country or it's workers any.

    Part of some government incentive was to give monies to counties to redo their court houses. Courthouses all over Texas had work done on them. The jobs went to outside contractors - no locals and I only saw illegals working.

    I fear that is what will happen with the infrastructure jobs as well.
    The corporate tax cuts encourage investment in the US that creates good jobs. Most manufacturers left because of tax costs in the US. The narrative is they left for labor reasons, that isn't true. Labor costs in the US for manufacturing is about 10% of total cost of production, so whatever they saved in labor was a minor issue overall. What they saved was 49% income taxes on profits, where rates were when they started to leave. Then came Bush tax cuts to 33%, which expired and now they're back up to 39%. No one is coming back to the US to pay 39% of their profit to the US government. At 15% a lot will come back. If we pass the FairTax, they'll all come home, every single one of them.

    You never want to tax your producers and service providers for work, service or production. That's why it was illegal under the US Constitution to begin with and nothing good has come from it. It's been 104 years of failure. How many centuries will it take to relearn what the founders knew to begin with?
    A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
    Save America, Deport Congress! - Judy

    Support our FIGHT AGAINST illegal immigration & Amnesty by joining our E-mail Alerts at https://eepurl.com/cktGTn

  7. #7
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Posts
    7,377
    The story of labor costs being the reason, never really added up. I'm also not sure it's taxes - but I have to know exactly how much corporations pay - not the rate, but actual payments. That's another conversation.

    The cost of transportation for those goods must be astronomical - eating into any profit they got from their slave labor.

    If corporations (producers and service providers) shouldn't be taxed, then workers shouldn't be taxed on their labor either. On that we can agree.

    Yes, we need jobs, we need producers and manufacturers, etc., but there needs to be limits.

    I would give them a really big tax cut. In exchange, no foreign labor. They could employ no lobbyists. They shouldn't be able to contribute to political campaigns in any shape, form or fashion. If they are caught paying off politicians or bureaucrats, it should be a fine - but a fine to the person doing the no-no - not one the stockholders will end up paying.

    No more corporate bail out or subsidies. No one is 'too big to fail'.

  8. #8
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Posts
    55,883
    Yeah, it's taxes. It's the sum total of all taxes corporations pay in the US. It's outrageous. They pay corporate income tax, dividend tax, payroll taxes, excise taxes, gas taxes, electricity taxes, state income taxes, state inventory taxes, earnings taxes, capital gains taxes (federal and state) and property taxes. Plus they pay all the income taxes and payroll taxes their employees have to pay because it's built into their salaries and wages. And then there's the cost of regulations.

    I heard today on the news that the Obamacare regulations, in addition to the 2009 pages of laws of Obamacare, are another 19,000 pages of regulations. Have you ever heard of such insanity?! It's pure madness. It's government run so far afield of its purpose, it's unbelievable. 21,000 pages of laws and regulations to subsidize 11 million people because the adults in those families don't have enough earnings to buy their own because the insurance in that individual market is too expensive, and lo and behold, after 21,000 pages of government authority, it's still too expensive and has priced itself out of business.

    Hey!! I just heard some good news on Hannity. Apparently the news is the Republicans and the Freedom Caucus have made a deal that's good, they're writing it up now, and hope to get it passed out of the House very soon and the Parliamentarian in the Senate has assured them they can pass it with reconciliation, so maybe, maybe, maybe, oh lord, please let it be true, they will pass the Phase 1 bill in a couple of weeks and repeal all those horrible mandates.

    Oh please let this be true. Hannity usually has his information from good sources. Trump seemed optimistic about health insurance getting resolved soon too today on the trail in Wisconsin promoting Jobs for Americans and signing his EO on the H1B program.

    We've waited so long for a President to take our side on these issues, we all want it done yesterday, but of course some things take longer than we would like to get worked out.
    A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
    Save America, Deport Congress! - Judy

    Support our FIGHT AGAINST illegal immigration & Amnesty by joining our E-mail Alerts at https://eepurl.com/cktGTn

Similar Threads

  1. Terrorists plan attacks on shopping malls, areas favored by Americans in S. Africa –
    By European Knight in forum Other Topics News and Issues
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 07-12-2016, 12:50 AM
  2. Job-seeking Americans aren't buying amnesty for illegals
    By American-ized in forum illegal immigration News Stories & Reports
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 05-05-2011, 01:09 AM
  3. Arrogance Run Amok: Obama Says Americans Aren't Thinking Cle
    By AirborneSapper7 in forum Other Topics News and Issues
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 10-18-2010, 11:01 PM
  4. For those of you who think H1B's aren't a problem
    By Sam-I-am in forum General Discussion
    Replies: 32
    Last Post: 07-20-2007, 07:32 AM
  5. Americans Aren't Buying What Two Parties Are Selling
    By POTUS in forum Other Topics News and Issues
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 07-18-2007, 04:56 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •