Thread: We need to think about how to promote ed on how to go back

Most of the people who come here as illegals intended to go back when they came. They lack the focus and become distracted and as a result they stay here. There are voices they hear trying to make them become citizens to keep La Maquina politicians in power. There should be effort on how to use remittances effectively to change the situations they left so there is less resistance to going back. We should keep up the pressure here but also educate themm on how they can improve their situations there.

When they send remittances back the money may get frittered away. I saw an article about a year ago on how the kids of a Guatemalan man were using the money to spend at the video game parlor and buying new Nike shoes, to give themselves status. Even the Mayor of the town in Guatemala was bewailing that this was a misuse of money. The remittances are an economic drain on the US, but I do realize the presence of illegals in some ways pushed real estate up, for awhile, Now it is dropping back to earth.

They need to set up a trust account if they are going to do this, so that the money does not go to waste. There are a lot of economic development groups, if they just know where to turn. Te governments do have programs and religious groups have them, too. I suppose they need to be able to travel or at least communicate, in order to put these resources together. Same as here. Evidently the Mexican government instituted a national health program a few years ago, I don't know about the other countries.

I know some of the innovative building material manufacturers, such as Certainteed with their cement board, have built manufacturing plants in Mexico. This is a perfect product for their market (ours,too), and I believe there are already some housing programs underway to utilize it. If they could team up with, let's say, an educator, and say "We want to build a community here. Can you help us find resources?"

Maybe the women have to lead it...that's what they have done in many parts of Africa, because the men are too macho to do it.

http://www.habitat.org/intl/lac/133.aspx Habitat for Humanity

http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRel ... BW20080219 Perma Base Cement board


Mexican housing booms despite US crisis
(Agencies)
Updated: 2008-01-21 10:03

MEXICO CITY -- In her bustling corner real estate brokerage, Ana Laura Pulido is doing her best business in years, enjoying a sort of Mexican immunity from the US housing crash.


A child rides his tricycle at the La Alvorada housing complex on the outskirts of Mexico City, Thursday Dec. 20, 2007. [Agencies]

"It's a time of hope," said Pulido, who has sold hundreds of homes to middle-income families since 1992. "The buyer today is more aware. People buy with more ease, they can plan long-term."

Long thrashed by swings in the US economy, Mexico now boasts a thriving housing sector whose record growth leads Latin America -- a sign of increased economic stability and an outlet for investors looking to escape the US downturn.

Giants including the California Public Employees Retirement System, the largest US public pension fund, are already bankrolling projects in Mexico, where they see "more bang for the buck," said Clark McKinley, spokesman for CalPERS, which has invested more than $300 million in Mexican real estate funds.

The trend could even slow emigration from Mexico, by generating millions in jobs and personal savings as a fresh supply of loans gives many their first chance to own a house.

President Felipe Calderon has set a national goal of a million new mortgages a year by 2010. On Monday, he unveils a set of measures to ensure growth continues, with plans to boost Mexico's small resale market and combat the urban sprawl that has begun to carpet valleys with hundreds of thousands of matchbox rowhomes.

Behind the boom are six years of economic growth and stability, and a national shortage of 6 million dwellings. While interest rates are falling, just 6 percent of Mexico's 25.7 million homes are financed with mortgages -- compared to about 67 percent in the US Most Mexicans still inherit their homes, buy them with cash, or build them by hand.

That pent-up mortgage demand in a nation of 108 million means lenders can be choosy, enforcing strict standards that held delinquency rates below 4 percent in third quarter-2007, compared to 5.6 percent in the US

"Mexico is in the early stages of expansion," said Juan P. De Mollein, managing director for Latin American structured finance at Standard & Poor's. "There are still plenty of points for evolution because there's still plenty of demand."

In the US, lenders looking to expand their portfolios granted risky mortgages to borrowers with weak credit, but in Mexico, that "subprime" category doesn't exist, because lenders don't need it to grow. Also, few Mexicans flip homes or refinance mortgages, keeping the market more stable.

"Mexico doesn't have a credit issue. We can still choose our borrowers because demand is so great," said Mark Zaltzman, chief financial officer at Su Casita, one of Mexico's largest mortgage lenders.

A recession north of the border could choke US investment in Mexico, curbing job creation, discouraging new homebuyers and stalling housing growth.

But that won't likely lead to mass layoffs and defaults, said Rafael Amiel, managing director for Latin America at the financial consultancy Global Insight. Mexico simply has too much room to grow, and expanding local markets have insulated it somewhat from US downturns.

Housing demand could swell more as migrants are pushed home by the souring US economy and crackdown on illegal immigration -- generating four new jobs for every home raised, said Carlos Gutierrez, Mexico's housing policy director.

All this represents a major change from 1994, when Mexico devalued the peso, sending inflation and interest rates soaring, forcing homeowners into default and pushing banks to the brink of collapse. Credit was so tight that most Mexicans paid cash upfront or constructed their own homes, often adding one room at a time.

Since then, Mexico has seen a housing recovery built on a mix of government initiatives, private investment and a winning gamble by a new group of entrepreneurs who took a local approach to mortgage lending, using knowledge of family and neighborhood connections to make sure loans got paid.

Rather than build public housing, the government restructured mortgage-lending laws, setting stricter credit guidelines, standardizing appraisals and urging lenders to raise cash on financial markets. It also overhauled Infonavit, a public agency that grants more than half Mexico's mortgages, funded by a 5 percent payroll tax. Some 20,000 jobs were outsourced as the agency more than doubled new loans to 458,700 in 2007, director Victor Borras said.

And when commercial banks ran for the border, a new kind of lender stepped in, known as "sofoles," for the Spanish acronym for "limited financial association."

Taking advantage of Mexico's tight family ties and government credits, these nonbank mortgage lenders set up neighborhood offices, requiring relatives to co-sign loans and collecting late payments door-to-door, proving profits could be made.

Banks have since returned, and blossoming competition drove average 15-year mortgage rates to 12.5 percent in November -- a deal in Mexico, where rates topped 65 percent in 1995. Construction is booming too, as just 30 percent of new homes were self-built by their owners last year, down from 50 percent in 2004, Gutierrez said.

While big banks target higher-income borrowers, sofoles are pioneering mortgages for street vendors and taxi drivers, who work in the huge informal economy without documented salary or credit histories. Sofoles study spending habits to establish their income, offering trial payment periods to prove borrowers can afford payments on entry-level homes that range from $17,000 to $37,000.

Another huge potential market is the estimated 11 million Mexicans in the US, who can now buy "cross-border" mortgages to pay off homes in Mexico, increasing their control over the earnings they send relatives and cutting the time they need to work in the US to build a future back home.

Even as home lending soars, overall debt remains low, making a Mexican credit bubble unlikely. Major mortgage insurers, including US-based AIG United Guaranty and Genworth Financial, now back Mexican loans, slashing risk and making it easier for lenders to bundle and sell debt to investors as mortgage-backed securities -- raising capital to grant yet more loans.

Nearly $5.8 billion of these securities have been sold since 2003, offering investors an alternative to tumbling US markets and giving Mexico's nascent pension funds, which have relied on lower-yielding government bonds, a place to store assets long-term.

Mexico's housing sector is still full of risks, including land ownership disputes, infrastructure delays and limited access to water. The emphasis on private building has concentrated developments in wealthier states, while masses of poorer people still live on dirt floors.

Even so, millions of first-time homebuyers now have an asset to leave their children, or to use as collateral to finance future spending, fueling growth.

"I always had in my head that the only thing you can give your kids as inheritance is an education and a house," said Antonia Correa. The 37-year-old receptionist paid $7,200 down on a three-bedroom stucco townhouse in a sprawling new development in Cuautitlan, outside Mexico City.

"You could be short on things," she said. "But a roof is the best. It's your world, your home."

Thanks it is nioce to know that someone understands. Supermarkets are doing well and there are modern food factories in those countries that are doing well off the remittances but the beneficiaries are not using the money sent home well. They could grow and preserve their own food. There are not enough regional middelstand as the Germans call medium size businesses that would keep remittance money in the area. The one major durable is housing it is the reason given most often for moving here desire to own a house and if concrete board is something which enables them to do it cheaper it will help.

If a substance like Rammed earth can ever be made to substitute for concrete---with the right type of binders---there would be a surge in this type of construction. I've been looking at insulated concrete forms---foam blocks--and wondering if a mud or clay with a binder would work. I don't see why not. In Australia there is a lot of research onto these alternative products---on an industry wide basis.

The early inventor of cement board--James Hardie Corp.==is an Australian company. Not only has their products caught on in the developed world they have been gradually erecting plants elsewhere. I was just thinking to day that sheets of cement board could be perforated in an 8 or 12 inch grid pattern, tied together with what are usually called 'sex-screws', leaving a six inch space and then filled with a cheap filler. This is similar to how concrete walls are formed--but the forms of cement board would just stay in place. There's lots of alternatives--but having an exterior that can be plastered with weatherproof materials is the key: I've suggested the cement board sheets on a simple metal framework, and then spraying on a plaster or gunnite material. Corrugated metal roofs are fine in developing countries, but they should be spray painted with an epoxy paint, and then maintained every decade or so.

Incidentally, the homebuilding industry in the US has shifted into high economy mode, too. The new urban condos that are becoming popular are very efficient in how they use materials, in providing zero maintenance exteriors, and in being within walking distance of shops and public transportation. The builders always say they still struggle to make a profit but I don't believe it. There are a few things that drive up the cost, over suburban tract houses, like legitimate labor expenses and site development costs.

Thanks good comment.