Thread: Harry Reid's dislike of Arizona law may aid re-election

Harry Reid's dislike of Arizona law may aid re-election
Nevada senator trails in poll; Latino vote may prove critical
158 commentsby Erin Kelly - Jul. 5, 2010 12:00 AM
Republic Washington Bureau
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WASHINGTON - Arizona's divisive new immigration law could end up having a big impact on Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid's bid for re-election, political analysts say.

The Nevada Democrat's opposition to the Arizona law and his support for comprehensive immigration reform may help him shore up support among Latino voters, who could be crucial to his re-election.

At the same time, polls have shown a majority of Nevadans support the Arizona law and oppose a federal legal challenge to block it from taking effect as scheduled on July 29. The U.S. Justice Department is expected to file a challenge soon.

"Immigration is a risky issue to raise in an election year," said Fred Lokken, a political-science professor at Truckee Meadows Community College in Reno. "It's the kind of issue that can bubble over and go in ways that Senator Reid's campaign may not be able to control."

Still, that risk could pay off if it helps mobilize Nevada's Latino voters to go to the polls for Reid, said Danny Gonzales, a political-science instructor at Great Basin College in Elko, Nev.

Latinos make up about 12 percent of Nevada's electorate. That's significant when you consider how close the race is shaping up to be, Gonzales said.

Republican Sharron Angle held a 7 percentage-point lead over Reid in a June 22 Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely Nevada voters. The poll's margin of error was 4.5 percentage points.

"Mobilizing the Latino vote could decide the U.S. Senate election here in Nevada," Gonzales said.

A spokesman for Reid's campaign said immigration is too complex and vital an issue to be reduced to a simple political equation.

"As he has been for years, Senator Reid will continue to reach out to both Republicans and Democrats to forge a comprehensive-reform bill," said Kelly Steele, Reid's campaign spokesman. "In the end, Senator Reid believes this is fundamentally the right thing to do, irrespective of any political considerations."

Republicans say that Reid's immigration stand will hurt him with the majority of Nevadans.

A June poll of 625 registered Nevada voters by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research indicated that 57 percent support the Arizona immigration law. The margin of error was 4 percentage points. And 63 percent oppose an expected challenge of the law by the Obama administration, the Rasmussen Reports poll indicated.

Angle has said she supports the Arizona law, which makes it a state crime to be in the country illegally.

The law also says that an officer engaged in a lawful stop, detention or arrest shall, when practicable, ask about a person's legal status when reasonable suspicion exists that the person is in the United States illegally.

"I think Senator Reid has placed himself in a perilous position by coming out against the Arizona law," said Brian Walsh, a spokesman for the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

"He is simply out of touch with the majority of people in Nevada who are seeing the problem with our porous border and illegal immigration every day."

Most Nevadans understand the frustration that resulted in the Arizona law, Lokken said.

"I think most Nevadans are proud of the leadership shown in Arizona to light a fire under the federal government to fix the system," the professor said. "We get why they did what they did."

It also may be harder than Reid thinks it will be to mobilize Latino voters because he has failed to deliver on promises to pass comprehensive immigration reform, Walsh said.

"In April, he spoke to a rally of thousands of his constituents and promised them reform," Walsh said, referring to an April 10 rally in Las Vegas organized by an immigrant rights' group. "And here it is the Fourth of July recess with no bill in sight."

Reid has repeatedly said that he wants to bring a bill to the Senate floor but cannot pass it without support from at least a few Republicans.

GOP leaders would most likely filibuster any reform bill, which means it would take 60 votes to force a vote.

There are 59 members of the Senate Democratic Caucus, leaving Reid one vote short.

"I think Latino voters are going to give Senator Reid credit for trying," Gonzales said.

Reid knows he's not going to persuade Nevada Republicans to vote for him, so it makes sense to try to appeal to the Democratic Party's base with his stand on immigration reform, Lokken said.

"It's probably good politics," he said.

Read more: http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/ ... z0spyf0BPh

Anyone with any brains can see that picking up Latino votes won't make a difference for Harry Reid. If he came out in support for the Arizona law, he might just pick up more votes, Latino and others and that his how you win support.

Calling the law "divisive" and catering to Latinos who traditionally are very sluggish when it comes to voting isn't good strategy.

I would guess Reid is counting on Illegal Immgrants to vote for him.I just hope voter ID's are checked in Nevada.

I still have my "DUMP HARRY REID" bumper sticker on my car....and I get a LOT of "thumbs up" from fellow drivers!!!!!

Latinos make up about 12 percent of Nevada's electorate. That's significant when you consider how close the race is shaping up to be, Gonzales said.

Does this include illegal invaders who have no legal or moral right to participate in our political process?

This article is INSANE.

You DO NOT NEED to present ID at the polls in Nevada

I can tell you for sure that Reid is toast here though , He has actually no chance at all unless Sharon Angle starts barking at the moon or acting like Napoleon.

The illegals can't help him here , While no ID is required the poll workers do a very careful check of the voter rolls when you check in.

I vote in a high hispanic part of Vegas , the Polls are usually ghost towns in this part of town on election day.

Originally Posted by mapwife

Anyone with any brains can see that picking up Latino votes won't make a difference for Harry Reid. If he came out in support for the Arizona law, he might just pick up more votes, Latino and others and that his how you win support.

Calling the law "divisive" and catering to Latinos who traditionally are very sluggish when it comes to voting isn't good strategy.

One only has to read the comment sections of the Las Vegas review journal to get an idea how normal Nevadans feel about Reid and his illegals.

Originally Posted by NoBueno

Latinos make up about 12 percent of Nevada's electorate. That's significant when you consider how close the race is shaping up to be, Gonzales said.

Does this include illegal invaders who have no legal or moral right to participate in our political process?

Probably some. In our town there are always a few but a mention of the word "police" usually gets them to stop insisting on getting a ballot and leave. On the other hand, in this area if there's no free stuff to be had, the illegals aren't there.

If Latinos make up 12 percent of Nevada voters, what about the other 88 percent? I suspect more than a few would vote for Gramma's pink poodle if it had an (R) after it's name.

Wow, that's crazy! Sacrificing national soverignty and security just to gain a few more votes than the other guy! That man isn't fit to govern anything!

Thanks for sharing that article! As sad as hearing that kind of stuff is, it's kind of nice to see the democrats floundering a little :P