Thread: Illegal immigrants from India on the rise

But, I keep hearing that this is happening - that India is developing internally.

Chinese goods can't stay dirt cheap forever, not without bending the laws of math:

Around the Markets: Fuel costs slow down shippers
By Kyunghee Park and Clare Cheung
Bloomberg News
Thursday, August 16, 2007
HONG KONG:

Asian shipping company shares, the best performers in the region this year, are stalling because of concerns that rising costs could hinder earnings growth.

China Cosco Holdings, owner of the largest Asian container line, has tumbled 13 percent this month from a record on July 31. Neptune Orient Lines, which operates the region's fourth-largest container line, has dropped 31 percent since peaking last month. Its costs will rise 1 percent in the second half, twice as fast as in the first, with fuel prices, said Alex Chang, an analyst with UBS in Hong Kong. He recommends selling the stock.

Energy costs have jumped more than 30 percent this year and surcharges to move containers in and out of ports are rising, undermining shipping lines' efforts to stem two years of profit declines. The companies are also paying more for vessels as shipbuilders charge higher prices because of a flood of orders. Goldman Sachs cut its recommendation on Asian shipping stocks last month, saying prices exceed earnings expectations.

"If you bought, you are lucky, you are happy, you hold," said Liu Yang, a fund manager at Atlantis Investment Management in Hong Kong. "If you haven't bought, don't chase up. You need to be sure whether similar sustainable results will be repeated in the next 12 months."

Liu said she was selling shares of shipping lines and buying port stocks because ports have a better earnings outlook.

The 20 biggest Asian container shipping lines by market capitalization are valued, on average, at 30 times earnings, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That exceeds the average price-earnings multiple of 21 for the Bloomberg World Transportation index of 108 companies.

"They are certainly not cheap," said Hugh Young, a fund manager at Aberdeen Asset Management in Singapore. "The stock prices have reflected that they're having a good time." Young said he was not adding to holdings of container shipping companies.

Seven of the world's 10 biggest marine transport companies by sales are in Asia. The stocks surged in the first half as global trade let shipping lines raise rates for the first time in almost two years to carry computers, toys and textiles.

Shares of Neptune Orient, based in Singapore, have more than doubled in 2007, making it the best performer in Singapore's Straits Times index and in the Morgan Stanley Capital International World index. China Shipping Container Lines, the region's second-largest carrier of sea-freight boxes, has tripled this year, reversing two years of losses.

The price of ship fuel climbed to a record last month after crude oil reached the highest in more than 11 months. The prices are increasing largely because of demand from China, whose economy grew at the fastest pace in 12 years in the second quarter. Bunker fuel costs make up as much as 15 percent of a shipping line's total expenses, according to Mirae Asset Securities in Seoul.

The price of 380 Centistoke Bunker Fuel, used by ships, has risen 32 percent this year in Singapore, Bloomberg data show. It gained 12 percent in the same period in 2006.

"Higher oil prices will mean ship fuel prices and other costs could end up eating into profits that may be on the road to recovery from higher rates," said Yoo Byung Ok, a fund manager at Mirae Asset Management in Seoul.

Yoo said he did not plan to add to his shipping stocks, which include Hanjin Shipping, based in Seoul and the largest South Korean shipping line, according to Bloomberg data.

On top of the fuel costs, ports and railways in the United States are raising fees amid congestion caused by rising imports from Asia. Charges for moving cargo in the United States rose 2.4 percent to $216 for every container moved by rail this month and will increase to 2.8 percent in September, according to the Transpacific Stabilization Agreement, a group of 14 ocean container shipping lines that operate between Asia and the United States.

Chang, of UBS, said that apart from Neptune Orient, most shipping lines have been hit with 20 percent to 30 percent cost increases for railway access in the United States for three-year contracts. Neptune Orient has secured better pricing in the United States than its rivals because its unit APL used to operate railways.

Some liners may not be able to maintain their margins, even with higher freight rates, the Goldman Sachs analysts Matthew Chan and Edwin Yeo wrote in a note last month.

http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/08/16/ ... sxasia.php

i dont want to sound too philosophical .. But nothing is permanent for that matter .. Samples here ..

1. Pre Colonial (British rule) India's GDP was more than Great Britan (Inclduing all its colonies of its time )

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of ... e-colonial )

Post Britan rule it became a thrid world country , divided into two countries (later became three)

2. Once Japan was a power house

Post World war it plunged ..

Later it surged back ..

Now getting scared of China ...

3. Great Britan was a world ruler once.

See the state of it now.

4. USSR was once equalent to USA

later bickered ... into pieces ..

Originally Posted by toordaal

i dont want to sound too philosophical .. But nothing is permanent for that matter .. Samples here ..

1. Pre Colonial (British rule) India's GDP was more than Great Britan (Inclduing all its colonies of its time )

(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of ... e-colonial )

Post Britan rule it became a thrid world country , divided into two countries (later became three)

2. Once Japan was a power house

Post World war it plunged ..

Later it surged back ..

Now getting scared of China ...

3. Great Britan was a world ruler once.

See the state of it now.

4. USSR was once equalent to USA

later bickered ... into pieces ..

Valid observations, toordaal, but a bit off the subject of the thread - the growing number of people from India, here illegally.

Uncertainty goes both ways. So why do I run into so many boastfull Asians who gloat that America is going down for the count? They complain that we don't know much about them, but it often turns out the reverse is true. I get so tired of the verbal abuse when we won't roll over. No we are not giving them the IT profession - I keep running into individuals who imagine that we don't need our jobs and can be scared or shamed out of fighting for them. Some imagine that Americans can just open an international business or play the stock market, or live off our investments .... And they don't seem to consider America a sovereign nation, but rather a wide open town. Really, many of these 'guest' workers have worn out their welcome with us.

The USSR was never the equivalent of the US, they just invested in big weapons. They could never feed their people and lots of their stuff never worked right. Their country was held together by force and fear.

Originally Posted by BetsyRoss

India needs to develop internally. There should be no reason for an Indian to scheme to elbow an American

worker aside so that he can get a job processing data or mortgages for Americans when he can get a job in India serving

Indians. Surely there is data to be processed in India.

This would be feasible if economies weren't interrelated.

The rise of the rupee will change the economic equation that rewards businesses for sending out jobs and bringing foreign workers in. It already has. I read somewhere that when the rupee is thirty-something to the dollar, Nasscom's party is over.

The RBI tinkers with the exchange rate now and then, but the forces pushing the rupee up and the dollar down are far stronger.

It should eventually change the equation for sending jobs offshore. However the effects will be slow to be visible for a few reasons -

1. Infrastructure in India is improving, which means that employers won't have to spend as much on things like roads, diesel and diesel generators. This means a certain amount of rise in the exchange rate can be offset due to the resultant rise in productivity.

2. The rising exchange rate is moderating inflation in India so imports are cheaper. This means that workers paychecks go further and they can make do with lower wage hikes and smaller paychecks.

For employment onshore in the US, a rising rupee will make also make it more attractive to employ Indians. A similar situation exists today with the EU countries. The EU countries have a similar standard of living to the US, but the Euro is stronger than the dollar. The resulting scenario is that today Europe outnumbers both India and China in the number of green cards granted for employment even without counting the people who make it in through the diversity visa program.

The rise in fuel cost and the coming scarcity of fuel should change the equation for Chinese goods to be hauled here. I keep waiting for that to happen.

China is a different kettle of fish. The communist party will keep people employed using all necessary means as that is the only way to prevent a revolution.

In my USSR example, I was just talking with resepct to cold war terms.

If what you are talking below (bolded) with respect to the presentation link I gave early (Specifc page link below ), then who said that was the author of the book and she is an American I beleive.

http://specials.rediff.com/money/2007/sep/12sld6.htm

I cannot talk for others for why or what made them or what they did ,to make you think you like that .

I can talk for myself and being a mediocre .. I am just trying to understand the things in right perspective. Nothing more than that.

Originally Posted by BetsyRoss

Uncertainty goes both ways. So why do I run into so many boastfull Asians who gloat that America is going down for the count? They complain that we don't know much about them, but it often turns out the reverse is true. I get so tired of the verbal abuse when we won't roll over. No we are not giving them the IT profession - I keep running into individuals who imagine that we don't need our jobs and can be scared or shamed out of fighting for them. Some imagine that Americans can just open an international business or play the stock market, or live off our investments .... And they don't seem to consider America a sovereign nation, but rather a wide open town. Really, many of these 'guest' workers have worn out their welcome with us.

The USSR was never the equivalent of the US, they just invested in big weapons. They could never feed their people and lots of their stuff never worked right. Their country was held together by force and fear.

But the Indian workers won't be content with lower salary hikes, because that's not human nature. They job hop like crazy already. And, with more money chasing the various goods, prices will inflate (see US housing bubble for an example). And it doesn't make employing Indians more attractive, it means that the Indian gets fewer rupees for his dollar, which affects the savings possibilities and overall wisdom of working in the west.

Indian companies are already trying to figure out what to do in the wake of a 9% rupee rise this year. At their level, that's real money, gone.

The Indian consumer is already making an appearance, and we have a saying that a woman can pitch more out of the house with a teaspoon than a man can bring in with a wheelbarrow. They don't seem at all ascetic to me any more. They seem to be turning into 1990s Americans. They can stop calling us greedy and materialistic.

It was the low rupee that made the offshoring and outsourcing equation invincible. Once someone, somewhere, will do a half-assed but basically functional job for 1/6 - 1/3 your salary, it no longer matters how good you are or how much you contributed in the past to your company.

This is off the topic
Visit the below blog , if you are not already visiting.

http://blogs.ilw.com/gregsiskind

Where lots of dicussion goes on everyday... Though some of the points in the blog you many not like.. but sure can have the glimpse of the other side of the coin of both legal and illegal immigration .. I know that you visit IV and you know some of the legal immigration intricacies .. but the above blog is about both legal and illegals. I visit IV or ALIPAC or NumberUSA or above blog just to understand the things in right perspective. By saying thsi I am not trying to belittle your knowledge on imigration matters.

Thanks for the blog - he sounds lively. But it won't cost bazillions of dollars to deport the illegals, just dry up the jobs that are drawing them.