Immigration reform awaits next president
Regardless of party, winner faces uphill battle on divisive issue
Daniel Gonzalez - Jun. 16, 2008 12:00 AM
The Arizona Republic
The next president will inherit a broken immigration system.

With the number of illegal immigrants in the United States estimated at more than 12 million, he will remain under public pressure to take bold steps to deal with the issue. President Bush tried but failed in that effort when Congress did not pass comprehensive immigration reform that he supported.

Nowhere is the issue more pressing than in Arizona. The state's portion of the U.S.-Mexican border remains the main gateway for illegal border crossings, which has led to about 1,000 migrant deaths here since 2003.

Arizona also is a major destination for new immigrants, both legal and illegal. This state is home to an estimated 500,000 undocumented immigrants, making up 9 percent of the state's population, the highest portion of any state, according to the Pew Hispanic Center, a research organization.

After immigration reform collapsed in Congress, Arizona and many other states have passed their own laws to grapple with the issue.

The get-tough measures, such as Arizona's employer-sanctions law, along with stepped-up federal immigration enforcement, crackdowns by local police and an economic downturn, have slowed illegal immigration.

Even so, most experts believe that the problem will require a federal solution led by the new president.

Here are some questions to help voters weigh the presidential candidates on the immigration issue:

Will the next president have more success getting Congress to pass an immigration bill, given that President Bush couldn't do it in eight years?

Most experts believe that mounting public pressure will force the next president to tackle immigration reform in his first year, but it could take longer for Congress to pass a bill for the president to sign. That's because immigration reform may take a backseat to more pressing issues, such as the economy, the Iraq war, health care and rising gas prices.

What will the next president have to do differently?

The next president will have to take a more active role in creating a bill instead of just outlining a plan, as President Bush did, some experts say. He also will have to work harder to build a consensus among Republicans and Democrats.

Will the Bush administration's new emphasis on immigration enforcement continue?

After immigration reform failed in Congress, the Bush administration began cracking down harder on employers of illegal immigrants and deporting many more illegal immigrants. The immigration raids, however, have sparked a growing backlash from immigrant advocates, religious leaders and business groups.

Whether the next president plans to maintain the crackdowns will be signaled in his choices to head the Department of Homeland Security and the immigration-enforcement agency known as ICE.

How will the next president deal with the border fence?

Government lawyers have been trying to force some reluctant landowners and local governments to allow construction of hundreds of miles of additional fencing along the U.S.-Mexican border. The 700-mile project was authorized by a bill Congress passed and President Bush signed in 2006.

The fence, however, has sparked a conflict that pits border security against individual property rights. So far, about half of the fence has been built, and the remainder is scheduled to be completed by the end of the year.

Presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama have said they support a border fence, but it's unclear what their level of commitment would be.

A fence alone won't solve illegal immigration, experts say.

Why is immigration so contentious?

Like abortion, immigration is a divisive issue. Basically the conflict is between those who believe that the solution is to vigorously enforce tough laws so illegal immigrants go home and those who believe that tough enforcement alone won't work unless it is coupled with a legalization program for undocumented immigrants already here and more visas for immigrants needed to drive the U.S. economy.

The next president will have to find a way to build a consensus between those two camps. He also will have to muster the political will to tackle the problem

Why has Washington lacked the political will to do something?

There are divisions over immigration in both political parties. Within the GOP, some leaders who are allied with businesses view immigrants as vital to the economy, and others see immigrants as a threat to America's culture and social fabric and a drain on public services. Democrats are divided between the traditional wing, made up of workers and labor unions that fear job competition from immigrants and a growing immigrant and Latino constituency that favors more generous reforms.

So whether the next president is a Democrat or a Republican, immigration reform will remain an uphill battle.


Based on interviews with Mark Krikorian, executive director of the Center for Immigration Studies, a think tank in Washington, D.C., that promotes less immigration; Doris Meissner, senior fellow at the Migration Policy



Institute in Washington; and Frank Sharry, executive director of

America's Voice, an immigrant advocacy organization in Washington




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