IMMIGRATION DAILY FROM ILW.COM

1. COMMENT

McCain Kennedy Reborn

If immigration is your number one political priority, what should
you do this election?

We begin with the observation that Democrats will likely
consolidate and expand their control of the Senate and the House.
This is good news for the immigration cause. However, in spite of
controlling Congress for the past two years Democrats have done
virtually nothing on immigration benefits and have continued
massive spending on immigration enforcement. So, even though most
political analysts are agreed that Democrats are poised for
significant gains in the House and the Senate, that alone does
not portend any immigration benefits in the coming years.

With that background, let us examine the difference in prospects
for immigration benefits on Jan 20, 2009 if we get President
Obama or if we get President McCain.

If we get President Obama, Democrats are going to be euphoric on
Jan 20, 2009, and rightly so - being back in the White House, at
last, after 8 long and bitter years. Democrats have not been able
to pursue their priorities for 8 years and we can expect them to
act aggressively on their big priorities immediately after a
President Obama takes office. There are at least four Democratic
priorities ahead of immigration: the Iraq war, universal health
care, budget/taxes and energy policy. These are all large,
complex issues and Congress will take most of a President Obama's
first term to work on these. In such a scenario, we will not see
any significant immigration benefits in the foreseeable future.

If we get President McCain, we will still have a powerful
Democratic majority in Congress on Jan 20, 2009. This Congress
will be at loggerheads with him on all the major Democratic
priorities. Democrats will want to bring the troops home whereas
Mr. McCain wants them in Iraq for 100 years; Democrats see a
health care crisis whereas Mr. McCain sees none; Democrats will
want increased taxes whereas Mr. McCain would like to cut them;
Democrats want to conserve oil and work on alternative sources of
power whereas Mr. McCain would like to drill for oil all over the
map. Democrats and a President McCain will be 180 degrees apart
on all major Democratic priorities. In this bitter fighting
hardly anything will get done legislatively, and both Democrats
and Mr. McCain will be looking for opportunities to show the
country that they can work on something together.

While there are a few areas of agreement between Mr. McCain and
Democrats, immigration is the largest issue on which Democrats
and McCain agree. While the current Republican Party platform is
the most anti-immigrant one in memory, there were news reports
that Mr. McCain, who has a long track record of being pro-
immigration, tried to make it more immigration-friendly and
failed. This is the issue on which he is most likely to stab his
party's anti-immigrationist wing in the back both in his
political interests and due to his own convictions (Mr. McCain
had to fight his party's anti-immigrationists tooth and nail
during the Republican primaries). We expect to see almost all of
the original McCain-Kennedy bill become law during the first six
months of a McCain Presidency.

The Bush era has been the worst in memory for immigration
advocates. However the combination of a powerful Democratic
majority in Congress with Mr. McCain as President offers the best
hope for speedily obtaining desperately needed immigration
benefits.

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