For GOP, migration defining campaign
Mike Madden
Republic Washington Bureau
Sept. 1, 2007 12:00 AM
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepubli ... g0831.html

WASHINGTON - Immigration reform may be off Congress' agenda, but you wouldn't know it from listening to some presidential candidates.

As would-be presidents jockey for position, illegal immigration has remained a flashpoint months after the debate in Washington ended, especially among Republicans.

GOP rivals have hammered each other over border security. Voters press candidates about the issue daily. Analysts and campaign aides alike say immigration will play prominently as the presidential campaign heats up.

"It's amazed me how big of an issue it has continued to be," said former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, one of nine Republicans seeking the party's nomination for president. "It's an issue that draws out extraordinary passions."

Already, passion within the Republican Party base over immigration has slowed fundraising and hurt support for Arizona Sen. John McCain, a leading advocate of legislation that died in the Senate that would have let most illegal immigrants gain legal status.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani aired dueling radio and TV commercials about immigration in early primary states, while their campaigns sniped at each other over who would do a better job of tightening border security.

"I think it's kind of like if you're walking down the street and see a $100 bill lying on the ground, it's hard not to lean over and pick it up," said Tamar Jacoby, a senior fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute who works closely with many GOP politicians and business groups who support immigration reform. "Even though the bill hasn't passed, those passions are still aroused, and that's got to be tempting for any politician."

Losing Hispanic vote

That could result in rhetoric that leads Hispanic voters away from the GOP, advocates for immigrants warned.

"If the logic of the presidential primaries is you have to cater to the harshly xenophobic wing of the party, one wonders how (Republicans) expect to win the general election," said Cecelia Munoz, vice president for advocacy of the National Council of La Raza.

"Alienating the fastest-growing segment of the electorate is a foolish way to go about trying to win elections."

Democratic candidates, who all supported the broad outlines of the immigration bill, have mostly stayed away from the issue, which has been overshadowed among Democratic voters by concerns about the war in Iraq.

But conservative Republicans, who tend to vote in larger numbers than their more moderate counterparts in primaries and caucuses, were furious with the immigration legislation the Senate debated for weeks this spring. GOP supporters were deluged with calls, faxes and e-mails protesting the legislation, which opponents called an amnesty for people who broke the law to live here.

"The whole name of the game for us in picking a presidential candidate is who's telling the truth and who's going to enforce the existing laws and put the illegals on the run out of this country," said William Gheen, president of Americans for Legal Immigration PAC, an organization that advocates tougher border controls and enforcement of laws against hiring illegal immigrants. His group may try to hold a bipartisan presidential debate only on immigration, but it's unlikely the candidates would show up.

McCain's campaign troubles coincided with the immigration debate on Capitol Hill, which aides said hurt him among grassroots conservatives.

"I have not seen a more emotional and visceral reaction here," said Trey Walker, a consultant to McCain's campaign in South Carolina. "That thing jumped right out (of political circles) and into the general public."

Even McCain is hurt

Immigration even hurt McCain in Arizona, where his lead over rivals has dwindled.

A recent Cronkite-Eight poll in the state found 12 percent of Republicans who don't support McCain were mostly turned off by his stance on immigration.

For other leading candidates - Giuliani, Romney and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson - capitalizing on voter anger about illegal immigration sometimes takes delicate politicking.

Giuliani blasted the Senate's immigration bill all spring. But then he tapped several former Bush administration officials who lobbied hard for reform for two years as his advisers on immigration and border policy. His recent radio ads in Iowa, South Carolina and New Hampshire emphasized border security, but avoided mentioning that he favors allowing some illegal immigrants to get legal status as long as the government develops a secure ID card to prevent fraud.

The position isn't that different from what McCain's legislation would have done.

Meanwhile, Romney has called for computerized systems to verify whether workers are legal residents or citizens. But that, too, would have been required by the immigration legislation, which Romney also opposed.

Other candidates, like Colorado Rep. Tom Tancredo and California Rep. Duncan Hunter, have made tough immigration policies central to their campaigns. But so far, they haven't been able to raise as much money or do as well in polls as their better-known rivals.

Focusing too much on immigration could prove counterproductive, said Danny Vargas, chairman of the Republican National Hispanic Assembly.

"Yes, immigration is a big issue, it's a big problem, we've got to deal with it. But it's not the only thing we need to deal with," Vargas said.

Still, the candidates see a benefit in talking about how they would try to solve the problem.

"Something's got to change," Huckabee said. "People just want there to be some sense of attention to detail. I don't think people are mad at the immigrants, they're mad at the government for not dealing with it."

Reach the reporter at mike.madden@arizona 1-(202)-906-8123.