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  1. #1
    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    Republicans see reasons for hope in gubernatorial race

    Republicans see reasons for hope in gubernatorial race

    Banking on voter discontent, five candidates look to build momentum for primary

    Steve Terrell | The New Mexican
    Posted: Saturday, May 08, 2010 - 4/27/10

    Following two disastrous gubernatorial elections for New Mexico Republicans, the state GOP is starting to feel more confident about its chances of retaking the Fourth Floor of the Capitol this year.

    In 2006, with Gov. Bill Richardson at the height of his popularity, only one Republican, political unknown J.R. Damron of Santa Fe, ran in the primary for governor. After Damron stepped aside for combative party chairman John Dendahl to get on the ballot, Richardson eventually won re-election by an even bigger landslide than he had enjoyed four years earlier over one-term legislator John Sanchez of Albuquerque.

    But now, with Richardson unable to run again and his popularity diminished, five Republicans are campaigning for the office:

    • State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, who has served four terms in the Legislature and managed the Albuquerque office of a technology company.

    • Albuquerque lawyer Pete Domenici Jr., son of a longtime former U.S. senator.

    • Susana Martinez, a four-term district attorney in Las Cruces.

    • Doug Turner, an Albuquerque public relations firm owner who helped guide former Gov. Gary Johnson's campaigns.

    • Former state party chairman Allen Weh, an Albuquerque aviation company executive.

    Though term limits prevent Richardson from running this year, Republicans believe pay-to-play scandals that plagued his administration in the past two years — not to mention controversies involving other state political figures, a sour economy and crippling state budget problems — will hurt the Democrats.

    Lt. Gov. Diane Denish emerged as the only Democratic candidate for governor. She has raised nearly $4 million since 2007, and as of the beginning of April her campaign had almost $2.6 million in the bank. That's far more than all of the Republican contenders put together.

    Brian Sanderoff, who owns Research & Polling Inc. in Albuquerque, pointed out in a recent interview that a small number of people will determine the winner in the Republican primary. As of late April there were about 335,407 registered Republicans in the state. If 32 percent of them vote in the June 1 election (that's the percentage that showed up for the 2008 primary) that would total about 114,000 voters. "If one of the five candidates gets a third of the total, that means 40,000 voters will decide who a major party nominee will be," Sanderoff said.

    As of March 4, Santa Fe County had 14,759 registered Republicans, constituting just 17 percent of the county's registered voters, according to the Secretary of State's Office.

    In search of a front-runner

    So who's winning the GOP horse race? The answer depends on which measure you use — and whose press release you believe.

    Martinez won big among Republican delegates at the party's pre-primary convention in March, winning 46 percent of the delegates.

    According to a Rasmussen poll in late March, Turner did better against Denish in a head-to-head comparison than the other Republican contenders. Denish led Turner 43 percent to 34 percent — a margin of 9 percentage points. (Weh trailed Denish by 10 points in the poll.)

    Domenici was the leader in a March poll of 2,250 likely Republican voters commissioned by his own campaign, as well as one conducted by political science students at New Mexico State University.

    Weh's campaign, meanwhile, has the most money in the Republican field. Campaign finance reports filed in April said Weh had about $544,000 in the bank. Martinez had the second biggest total with about $364,000.

    "Pete Domenici Jr. got into the race late and became the instant front-runner," Sanderoff said. "Since then, you've seen some of the lesser-known candidates work to catch up. Weh ran some good TV spots and spent lots of personal funds. Susana Martinez scored well at the pre-primary convention. And she's had good ads. Doug Turner is making a go at it with his media campaign, his billboards and his ads. They're all trying to catch the guy with name recognition."

    But it's very possible Domenici's famous name might not be enough, Sanderoff said. "Some people say he peaked on the day he announced," the pollster said. "There's a sense that the others are gaining momentum. It should be close."

    Lonna Atkeson, a political science professor at The University of New Mexico, expects Domenici to be strong in the North and Martinez to win Southern New Mexico. Albuquerque, home to all the candidates but Martinez, is harder to call, she said.

    "You have a regional thing going on and an ideological thing going on," she said. Though Turner eschews the term "moderate," Atkeson said he's positioning himself as the most moderate in the race.

    As far as the money chase goes, three of the five GOP candidates are using large amounts of their own resources to fund their campaigns. According to the campaign finance reports filed last month, Weh has loaned his campaign $750,000, which accounts for about three-fifths of the money he has raised.

    Turner has loaned his campaign $442,000, and his company has provided $191,000 worth of in-kind donations of goods and services. That's nearly 70 percent of Turner's reported total.

    Domenici has made loans and contributions to his campaign totaling $120,000, which is a third of what he has raised.

    Martinez has raised the most money from outside sources.

    Atkeson said the race likely will come down to who has the best get-out-the-vote effort. "I don't have any sense of how strong their mobilization efforts are," Atkeson said. "It's just too early to tell."

    The competition between the five so far has been fairly civil — with only some minor dust-ups between candidates. But Atkeson predicted "things probably will heat up" as the primary comes closer.

    Contact Steve Terrell at 986-3037 or sterrell@sfnewmexican.com. Read his political blog at roundhouseroundup.com.

    http://www.santafenewmexican.com/Local% ... s-top-race
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  2. #2
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Good! I hope the Republicans pick a good candidate for Governor of New Mexico that can win and do the job that they need to do, including help to pass an AZ immigration bill.
    A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
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