Thread: Biased Poll Combat Proceedure ALERT!

That is all the same poll by AP-Ipsos. AP is a news company and Ipsos is a market research firm.

Found the margin of error info:

Originally Posted by AOL

The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

http://articles.news.aol.com/news/artic ... 4809990003

also in the AOL report they have some of the wording of the questions such as "Fifty-one percent said illegal immigrants mostly make a contribution to society, and 42 percent said they were mostly a drain"

That means the question was asked on a sliding scale (1-5 or 1-10 are the most likely). It has been my experience that scales are confusing to respondents who will have forgotten a part of the question while trying to remember the scale (short term memory only stores 7 items). The way these articles are worded are very generic and normally these types of studies are done very quickly (if you had a quota of around a thousand I would say that last week was hell at Ipsos). Which just adds to the human error of the interviewers.

All in all I think this poll will get tossed when, as I keep saying, Gallup comes out with a poll.

And finally 1,003 people being surveyed is just not enough to cover the entire demographics of the USA. Also notice they never say how many Democrats or Republicans were surveyed nor do they give figures for teh age ranges. The study was definately built to show one thing, that America supports the Guest Worker program.

Perhaps someone should ask the AP who paid for the study, since most research firms don't work for free.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news/client/act ... df&id=3035
that link is to the PDF file of the study. Ill list some of the demographics here.

Ethnicity:
White 69%
Black 11%
Hispanic 12%
Asian 3%
American Indian 01%
Other 02%
DNK/R 02%

Region:
Northeast 19%
Midwest 22%
South 36%
West 23%

Age:
18-34 31%
35-49 28%
50-64 24%
65 + 16%
DNK/R 01%

Are You Employed:
Full Time 51%
Part Time 11%
Not Employed 15%
Retired 22%
DNK/R 01%

Education:
Grade School or Some High School 09%
Completed High School 21%
Some College 23%
Tech or Community Degree 12%
Completed University 20%
Post Grad Degree 15%

Married:
Yes 56%
No 44%

How Many Person in the Household:
1 19%
2 36%
3 14%
4 18%
5 08%
6+ 04%
DNK/R 01%

In the PDF File the prove my theory that they used a scale to gain answers. On questions 1 & 5 I would think their margin of error would be greatest because wording like "strongly" and "very" get confused.

We need the wording of the polls. We need the contrary polls. I will start digging into our archives myself Monday morning to start pulling out the contrary polls on guest worker.

W

There certainly is deceptive writing, if not deceptive polling. From the Time Magazine article:

In the telephone survey of 1004 adults, conducted Wednesday and Thursday, 79% say they favor a guest worker program that would allow illegal immigrants to remain in the U.S. for a fixed period of time — the main provision of the bill proposed by Senators John McCain and Edward Kennedy that is now under fierce debate in Congress.

It says 79% favor allowing illegal immigrants to remain in the U.S. for a fixed period of time. Then it goes on to say that is the "main provision" of McCain-Kennedy. That is not true. McCain-Kennedy would allow current illegal aliens to remain in the U.S. indefinitely because they eventually gain citizenship without ever leaving the U.S. So, the writer conveys the message that 79% of the poll respondents favor McCain-Kennedy, but what they said they favor and what is in McCain-Kennedy are two different things -- the poll said "fixed", McCain-Kennedy says forever.

Only 47% of those polled say they support the tougher measure backed by some House conservatives, deporting all illegal immigrants back to their home countries.

"The tougher measure" as used in the above sentence implies H.R. 4437 -- at least the way I read it and I think most would read it. Further, it implies that H.R. 4437 demands a rounding-up and deportation of all illegal aliens. H.R. 4437 doesn't do that. It provides for expedited removal of illegal aliens who are not from Mexico or Canada if they are caught within 100 miles of the border within 14 days of entering. H.R. 4437 also provides for removal of illegal aliens convicted of criminal offenses other than illegal entry. To my knowledge it doesn't provide for wholesale round-up and deportation. I don't know if any "House conservative" even advocates direct deportation. Tancredo doesn't -- he favors the "let them deport themselves over time" approach.

It seems to me the author is concealing the lenient provisions in McCain-Kennedy and exaggerating the enforcement provisions of the House bill in order to promote the former and discredit the latter.

I think most people would also be confused by the use of the term "guest" when amnesty and forever is what is really meant. There are other inconsistencies, but I'm too tired to attempt deciphering anymore.

I also noticed what dragons5 said about the number of people polled.

The news articles keep saying "America says" as though the poll is a country wide representation. However when the article gives the number of people polled it seems like it is always around 1,000. Hardly the entire country.

"American Views of Mexico and Mexican Views of the U.S."
http://www.americanimmigrationcontrol.c ... n_Poll.doc

"Attitudes Toward Amnesty."
http://www.cis.org/articles/2001/back1201.html

The Gallup Poll has "U.S. Immigration" and "Mexican Migration" videos.
http://poll.gallup.com/videoArchive/

Excerpts from "Investors Believe Illegal Immigration Is Hurting the U.S. Economic Climate" by Dennis Jacobe:

Two in three investors believe that illegal immigration is hurting the U.S. economic climate according to the March UBS/Gallup Index of Investor Optimism poll...

["Two in three" is more than a simple majority.]

few [investors] believe that illegal immigrants will eventually become productive citizens and pay their full share of taxes. Most importantly, in overwhelming numbers investors think that the federal government should do more to prevent illegal immigration.

[State and local governments can discourage illegal immigration into their communities.]

http://poll.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=22060

Originally Posted by lc0130

http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1179117,00.html

Web Exclusive| Nation
New Poll: Americans Favor a Guest Worker Plan
79% say illegal immigrants should have the chance to work here, but most want tougher enforcement too
By JYOTI THOTTAM

Posted Friday, Mar. 31, 2006

Americans polled by TIME magazine show strong support for a guest-worker program and a process for undocumented workers to become citizens, but they take a tough stance on securing the borders. And most do not want illegal immigrants to have access to health care, public education or driver's licenses.

In the telephone survey of 1004 adults, conducted Wednesday and Thursday, 79% say they favor a guest worker program that would allow illegal immigrants to remain in the U.S. for a fixed period of time — the main provision of the bill proposed by Senators John McCain and Edward Kennedy that is now under fierce debate in Congress. Only 47% of those polled say they support the tougher measure backed by some House conservatives, deporting all illegal immigrants back to their home countries.

Although Americans want to give illegal immigrants the chance to work in the U.S. temporarily and even earn citizenship—78% say illegal immigrants who learn English, have a job and pay taxes ought to have a chance at it—they also want better enforcement both at the border and inside the country. A large majority, 71%, favor major penalties for people who hire illegal immigrants; 62% want the U.S. to take "whatever steps are necessary" to secure the border with Mexico, including posting military forces; and 56% favor a 2,000-mile-long fence. That two-pronged approach to illegal immigration is the same one favored by President Bush, who wants both a guest worker program and tighter border security.

Americans' biggest concerns about illegal immigration appear to be economic: 61% of those polled say they are very concerned about the cost of providing health care and education to illegal immigrants. A substantial majority, 75%, say they should not be allowed to have government services, such as health care or food stamps, and 69% say they shouldn't be able to get a driver's license. A slight majority, 51%, think public schools ought to be off-limits.

While the President's position on illegal immigration is clearly resonating with many voters, it hasn't helped his sagging approval ratings. They sank to 37% in the poll, a new low.

Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found at: www.srbi.com. (I can't get this link to open )

Here are the links after it opened.

http://www.srbi.com./timepoll_archive.html

http://www.srbi.com./time_poll.html


SRBI Public Affairs

ARCHIVE
March 31, 2006

Large Majorities Support Guest Worker Program and
Border Crackdown

By Mark Schulman and Tara Regan

With the immigration debate raging in Congress and immigration supporters spilling out into the streets, the latest Time Poll finds a lopsided majority of the American public, 72%, favor a "guest worker" program in a head-to-head match-up over a House bill that would criminalize illegal immigration.

Only 1 in 4 (25%) support the more drastic House version that would make illegals felons, allowing no illegals into the country, with no guest worker provisions.
The latest Time Poll of 1,004 adults, conducted March 29-30, finds that even a large majority of border state residents, 78%, favor the guest worker approach over expelling illegals. Large majorities of Republicans (66%), Democrats (75%), and Independents (73%) favor the guest worker approach.

Please Tell Me Which Comes Closest To Your Views







% Favor
Total (%)
Republican
(%)
Democrat (%)
Independent (%)

Allow Illegal Immigrants To Get Temporary Work Visas
72
66
75
73

Make Illegal Immigration a Crime And Not Allow Anyone Who Entered The Country Illegaly to Work or Stay In the U.S.
25
32
22
24


Favor Tougher Border Security Too

As a fractured Congress debates immigration reform, two-thirds (68%) say that illegal immigration is an extremely/very serious problem in the United States. A large majority believe the U.S. is not doing enough to secure its borders (82%).

While Americans overwhelmingly favor the guest worker option, they also want a crackdown at the border and stiff penalties for employers who hire illegals.

82% say that the United States is not doing enough to keep illegals from entering this country.

62% favor taking whatever steps are necessary at the borders, including the use of the military, to cut the flow of illegals into this country.

56% favor building a security fence along the U.S.-Mexican border.

71% support major penalties for employers who hire illegals.
Contradictions and Limits to Illegals’ Access to Services

The debate has Americans voicing sometimes contradictory opinions. A small majority (51%) still think the U.S. would be "better off" by deporting all illegal immigrants compared to a little less than two-in-five (38%) who think the U.S. would be "worse off."

Americans would also limit illegals' access to government services, such as driver’s licenses (69% not allow), health care/food stamps (75% not allow), and attending public schools (51% not allow).

Support Beyond Guest Workers

Most Americans would allow illegal immigrants to gain citizenship under certain circumstances.

About 7-in-10 (72%) favor granting temporary visas to immigrants not currently in the United States to do seasonal or temporary work here and then return to their own countries;

About 3-in-4 (78%) favor allowing illegal immigrants in the U.S. citizenship if they learn English, have a job and pay taxes;

A majority (55%) think illegal immigrants are taking jobs that U.S. citizens do not want or cannot do.
Demonstrations Backfire?

About 2 in 3 (67%) are aware of this week's demonstrations by immigrants and immigrant rights activists in a number of cities. The demonstrations likely had little effect currying support for their pro-immigrant position. Among the people who were aware of the demonstrations, only 14% reported that the protests made them more supportive of rights for illegal immigrants, while almost three times as many, 40%, said that the demonstrations make them less supportive. Almost half (44%) said that the demonstrations had no effect on their stance.

Partisanship and Geography Differences

Partisan differences complicate the issue further. However, these are mainly differences in degree:

Republicans more than Democrats believe illegal immigration is a very serious problem (79% - 64%), as do white, born-again Christians (76%).

Republicans are more in favor than Democrats of providing and enforcing major penalties for employers convicted of hiring illegals (77% - 66%), stopping illegals at the border from entering the U.S. by whatever steps necessary (71% - 54%) and deporting all illegals back to their home countries (58% - 42%).
Do You Favor or Oppose the Following to Deal with Illegal Immigration?

% Favor
Total (%)
Republican (%)
Democrat (%)

Allowing illegal immigrants to register as guest workers
79
79
77

Allowing illegal immigrants in the US, citizenship if they learn English, have a job and pay taxes
78
73
82

Granting temporary visas to immigrants not in the US so they can do seasonal/temporary work and return to home countries
72
72
71

Providing and enforcing penalties for employers convicted of hiring illegal immigrants
71
77
66

Stopping illegal immigrants from entering the US by taking whatever steps necessary to guard the border
62
71
54

Deporting all illegal immigrants
47
58
45


Other Political Fallout As President Bush meets in Cancun on immigration and trade issues with the leaders of Mexico and Canada, Bush’s overall approval rating sits at 37%. A majority disapprove of his handling of illegal immigration (56% disapprove - 25% approve). His disapproval score on immigration is down five points from January’s 61% disapprove – 24% approve.

Almost equal numbers of Americans are more likely to vote for (29%) or vote against (28%) a candidate who favors criminalizing illegal immigration. More than 1 in 3 (37%) say it wouldn’t have much effect on their vote.

Republicans in Congress are more likely to feel the heat on this issue. Republicans (37%) are more likely than Democrats (24%) to support a candidate for Congress who favors making illegal immigration a crime.

Half of Hispanics (50%) – a hotly contested group courted by both parties -- would punish candidates who favored criminalization of illegals.
Concerns about Illegal Immigration

The biggest concern for Americans regarding illegal immigration is the drain on taxpayers' dollars to provide services such as health care and education to them (61% "very concerned"). Concern is higher among Republicans (67%) and Southerners (65%). Other major concerns about illegal immigrants are that they:

increase the likelihood of terrorism in the U.S. (44% very concerned).

American workers can’t compete with low wages (43%).

increase the amount of crime (40%).

take jobs away from Americans (35%).

overcrowd the country, with too many people in the U.S. now (33%).

weaken American way of life (29%).
How Concerned Are You Each Concerning Illegal Immigrants?

% Very Concerned
Total (%)
Republican (%)
Democrat (%)
Independent (%)

Costs taxpayers too much money to provide them with services
61
67
57
61

They increase the likelihood of terrorism in the U.S.
44
52
40
44

American workers can't afford to work for the same low wages as illegal immigrants
43
43
43
42

They increase the amount of crime
40
46
38
39

They take jobs away from Americans
35
36
37
30

There are too many people in the U.S.
33
30
34
33

Weaken American way of life
29
33
25
28



Methodology
This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone between March 29 and March 30, 2006 among a national random sample of 1,004 adults, age 18 and older throughout America.

The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.

The Poll's partisan breakdown is as follows:

32% Democrat

28% Republican

25% Independent

Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related link below.



###

Related Link

Time Magazine/SRBI Survey Questionnaire and Frequencies


This poll is not printing out like it is in the links. Please try the links.

Excerpt from "America's Immigration Quandary":

Overall, 53% say people who are in the U.S. illegally should be required to go home, while 40% say they should be granted some kind of legal status that allows them to stay here.
http://pewhispanic.org/reports/report.php?ReportID=63

Ipos is one of them, here is the other. http://survey.pollingpoint.com/3929980
You can go take it every day. Bookmark it and hit it over and over again. Get that LA Times poll too. I think Pew can be taken several times too. I'm serious. Most of these can be taken over and over again and you can take them twice if you use two different computers.

Dixie

I wish someone would oraganize these polls. Some are old. Maybe when new ones are posted, they should include a date.