A big wave is headed Nancy Pelosi's way and few places to duck

The news just keeps getting worse for Democrats as the Labor Day weekend marks the final, formal heat in the race to November. The Cook Political Report is now saying 70 -- that's 70 with a seven -- House seats are in jeopardy. The Gallup poll is showing a 10-point spread on the generic ballot favoring the GOP.

Republicans need to win 39 to retake the House just two short years after Democrats swept to the giddiest heights of power in Washington: a young fresh leader in the White House, a filibuster-proof Senate, and a powerful House majority led by San Francisco's own liberal champion, Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

This November is shaping up as a wave election, and Pelosi is too far from shore to scramble to safety, and not far enough out to duck the big one heading her way. Nothing Democrats do in the next two months is going to bring the unemployment rate down. Period.

If Pelosi finds herself handing the gavel to House Republican leader John Boehner in January, it would be a miracle if she is not at least challenged as leader of the new minority Democrats. She is already being dissed in the hinterlands by terrified House moderates and conservatives who are trying desperately to show their independence.

What could really hurt Pelosi is this: her most loyal allies are the longest-serving members, the old bulls who fell from power in 1994 and suffered 12 long, unforgettable years in the GOP wilderness. Watch them retire in droves at the prospect of living through that again.

As ecstatic as they were when Obama took office, they know full well what faces the administration with GOP control of the Hill. For all the recriminations over health care versus the economy, in retrospect Democrats were right to seize the moment, because it was indeed fleeting. Pundits and the public perpetually overestimate the power of Washington to change the economy's course, no more so than after a financial crisis. The choice of a bigger stimulus versus health care will look like a no brainer in the history books, especially given the serious debate over the effectiveness of the stimulus.

GOP efforts to vilify Pelosi may also be taking their toll. For years they seemed ineffective; she commanded loyalty in the House, and still does. But the attacks have taken their toll on her public image, and loyalties evaporate among Washington's losing teams.

There is no bigger sign of Democratic troubles than Sen. Barbara Boxer's race against Carly Fiorina. If Fiorina slays the 18-year incumbent in a state where Democrats have a 2.3 million voter registration advantage, the Democratic firewall would be breached and the chamber could clearly fall to Republicans. That was nothing more than a GOP fantasy last spring.

Democratic aides say not so fast. Here's what they say they have going for them:

--Indies start paying attention after Labor Day, and when they see the Tea Party line up of the GOP in key races, they'll get turned off. Example A: Nevada, where Harry Reid looked like a goner until Sharon Angle opened her mouth.

--The campaigns are in the districts and the states. A wave election is a nationalized election.

--Democrats have a money advantage.

--President Obama will hit the campaign trail this fall to draw a clear distinction between D's and R's, and frame Republicans as a return to George W. Bush.

We'll see how it plays out. With Obama's popularity in the mid-40s and the liberal base turned off, it's questionable how much help he'll be. And this election is definitely looking nationalized.

Posted By: Carolyn Lochhead (Email) | September 02 2010 at 08:06 AM

Listed Under: Congress

Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/blogs/nov ... z0yOUXE2iU