Thread: TPP Is Still Alive But Prognosis Is Iffy at Best

AUG 3, 2015 @ 11:53 AM 2,066 VIEWS

TPP Is Still Alive But Prognosis Is Iffy at Best

John Brinkley ,
CONTRIBUTOR

Last week’s failure to close the deal on the Trans-Pacific Partnership set the clock ticking. Negotiators are running out of time to reach an agreement and get it ratified by the 12 governments involved.

Here in the U.S., 90 days have to elapse between a final agreement and ratification by Congress. Congress only has 45 legislative days left in 2015, although the leadership can add more.

If the TPP isn’t ratified by the end of this year, the chances of its being ratified before Obama leaves office will be slim.

Congress is highly unlikely to pass a gigantic free trade agreement like the TPP during an election year. It would almost have to happen after the election in a December lame-duck session.

Politico reports that the Obama administration hopes to see House and Senate floor votes on the TPP in early 2016. That would be a longshot, because there are quite a few trade-supporting Democrats who would vote no. Most Democratic House members have little or nothing to lose in voting against a free trade agreement. Voting for one in an election year could cost a member his or her job. Thanks to the power of social media, thedisinformatzia surrounding the TPP has been particularly loud and belligerent. That scares the heck out of pro-trade Democrats.

Trade negotiators from the 12 TPP countries said they were confident that last week’s negotiating round, in Maui, Hawaii, would be the last. When that proved not to be the case, the 12 trade ministers released the standard statement; they had made “significant progress,” were “more confident than ever that TPP is within reach,” and so on.

As of Monday, no date had been set for the next round, although there are reports of an effort to reconvene at the end of August.

Negotiators say they got a lot done in Maui, but there are still several major unresolved issues.

The Japanese seem to want to have their rice and eat it, too.

They are reluctant to allow more rice imports from the U.S., and at the same time, they want the U.S. to allow more Japanese cars into the United States. Moreover, Japanese auto companies build cars for U.S. consumption in Mexico and Canada, but they don’t want to abide by NAFTA’s rules of origin. It didn’t help U.S. negotiators that WikiLeaks released documents last week showing the U.S. National Security Agency had been spying on Japan’s government and some of its big corporations.

The Australians and New Zealanders are incensed at the U.S. government’s insistence on extending the patent period for biologic drugs to 12 years. They say it subordinates public health to the U.S. pharmaceutical industry’s profits. Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott seems to be dug in on this issue and unwilling to back down.

The New Zealanders want the United States, Canada and Japan to allow more diary imports. The Canadians have so far refused and the New Zealanders say they won’t sign the TPP unless the Canadians change their tune. Canada has parliamentary elections coming up in October; they’re not likely to back down on the dairy issue before then.

And the Australians want to be able to export more sugar to the United States.

Maybe the negotiators can resolve these issues in the next month or so and maybe they can’t. All the governments involved are highly motivated to get it done. The TPP is the last big policy initiative that Obama can realize. He clearly wants it badly.

If the parties can’t reach an agreement soon, the TPP will go onto the back burner until 2017. If a Democrat is elected president in 2016, that is where it will stay.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/johnbrin...-iffy-at-best/

8/6/15

http://www.alipac.us/f19/negotiators...-month-321874/

. . . How that debate in Congress and the public evolves will depend on the final trade agreement — and that is still an open question . . .

. . . Even if the U.S. and 11 other Pacific Rim nations can bring the deal to the finish line this month, it's almost certain now that an accord won't reach Congress for a vote until next year, in the thick of the presidential campaign . . .