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    Alabama race is neck and neck, with voters divided over Roy Moore allegations, poll f

    Politics
    Alabama race is neck and neck, with voters divided over Roy Moore allegations, poll finds







    By Michael Scherer and Scott Clement December 2 at 8:00 AM

    Alabama’s closely watched U.S. Senate race is a neck-and-neck contest as voter concerns about personal moral conduct weigh on the candidacy of Republican Roy Moore, according to a new Washington Post-Schar School poll.
    With less than two weeks to go, support for Democrat Doug Jones stands at 50 percent vs. Moore’s 47 percent support among likely voters — a margin of a scant three points that sets up a nail-biter for the oddly timed Dec. 12 special election.


    The survey shows that allegations of improper sexual behavior against Moore, a former Alabama chief justice, hang heavily over a race that would favor a Republican under ordinary circumstances in this deeply conservative state.
    Fifty-three percent of voters say Jones, a former federal prosecutor, had higher standards of personal moral conduct than Moore. In contrast, about a third of likely voters say Moore, who has cast his campaign as a “spiritual battle” with heavy religious overtones, has higher moral standards.
    Among the 1 in 4 voters who say the candidates’ moral conduct will be the most important factor in their vote, Jones leads, 67 percent to 30 percent.
    And Jones, whose strategy relies in part on peeling way Republican support from Moore, has the backing of 1 in 6 GOP-leaning likely voters. About 1 in 14 Democratic-leaning voters back Moore.
    The race, in which the winner will fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Jeff Sessions when he became attorney general, has taken on national importance because of its implications for the Republican majority in the Senate. If Jones wins, the GOP would control the chamber by only 51 seats to 49.


    Moore led Jones in most public polls before allegations became public last month, but support for Moore fell sharply afterward, with a mid-November Fox News poll showing him falling behind Jones by eight points. More recent automated surveys have found Moore regaining a slight edge.
    The Post-Schar School poll was conducted Monday to Thursday by the research firm Abt Associates among a sample of 749 likely voters and carries a 4.5-point margin of sampling error. To avoid influencing the answers of respondents with opinions about The Post’s coverage of allegations against Moore, interviewers disclosed The Post’s sponsorship of the survey only at the end of the interviews.
    The survey shows that the Alabama electorate is divided on the validity of the allegations against Moore. While 35 percent of likely voters think Moore did make unwanted advances on teenage girls, 37 percent say they are unsure or have no opinion. The smallest group — 28 percent of likely voters — say Moore did not make the advances that were alleged.
    Women are more likely than men to find the allegations credible and to support Jones, with 41 percent of women saying Moore made unwanted advances compared with 28 percent of men saying the same. Moore leads by 15 points among men likely to vote, while Jones leads by 18 points among likely female voters.
    There is also a stark partisan and ideological divide in how voters have processed the allegations, with many Republicans and GOP-leaning groups expressing skepticism.
    Fewer than 1 in 6 Republican-leaning likely voters say they believe that Moore made unwanted advances toward female teenagers. That view is held among similarly small shares of white evangelical Protestants and those who say they approve of President Trump, who in recent days has questioned the allegations and urged Alabamians to prevent Jones from winning the seat.
    More than three-quarters of each of those groups support Moore over Jones.
    At the same time, Jones is running well ahead of his own party’s dismal track record in a state that last elected a Democratic U.S. senator in 1992, when Sen. Richard C. Shelby won. He defected to the Republican Party two years later.
    In the Post-Schar School poll, Jones has the backing of 33 percent of white voters in the state. Barack Obama won just 15 percent of white votes in Alabama in his 2012 presidential reelection, according to exit polls.


    “On the allegations, they have made an impact. There is no doubt,” said Mark J. Rozell, the dean of the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University. “Anybody with an R next to their name should be comfortably ahead in this state.”
    A sizable share of Alabama’s Republican-leaning voters are clearly torn over the choice before them as they weigh their concerns about Moore against their desire to see Alabama send another Republican to the U.S. Senate.
    Fewer than half, 44 percent, of likely voters say they would prefer to see a Democrat representing Alabama in the U.S. Senate, while 50 percent of likely voters say they favored electing a Republican.
    Others say that they are unlikely to vote because they disliked both candidates. “I’m fed up. A lot of people are down here,” said Terry Anderson, 54, of Hartford, Ala. Anderson is an independent who participated in the poll and said he was not going to vote. “I think I’ll just let it all fall out on its own.”
    Republican-leaning likely voters are particularly unhappy with the role that national Republican leaders calling for Moore to drop out has played in the race. Nearly 3 in 4 say that outsiders should stay out of Alabama politics, while one-fourth say the national Republican leaders were justified in voicing their opinions.
    Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and other senior GOP senators have called on Moore to exit the race, and conservative stalwarts such as Sens. Mike Lee (R-Utah) and Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) have withdrawn their endorsements of Moore. The Republican National Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee have cut ties with the Moore campaign.
    In Alabama, the Republican Party has closed ranks around Moore, arguing either that the allegations against him are questionable or that putting a Republican in the U.S. Senate is a more important consideration. Shelby, Alabama’s senior senator, is the only statewide elected official to announce that he did not vote for Moore but opted to write in a different person’s name.
    Republicans have a clear advantage in party identification in Alabama, and Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by 28 points in the state last November. But Democrats say they are more enthusiastic about turning out for the special election. By 47 percent to 38 percent, more Democratic-leaning voters than Republican-leaning voters say it is “extremely important” to vote in the election. Democratic-leaners are also 12 points more likely to say they are following the race “very closely,” and 10 points more likely to say they are “absolutely certain to vote.”

    Roy Moore, the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Alabama, said on Nov. 27 that the allegations of sexual misconduct that several women have made against him “are completely false.” (Reuters)

    Jones’s campaign is banking on strong support and turnout among African American voters, who make up one-quarter of likely voters in the Post-Schar School poll. African American likely voters support the Democrat 93 percent to 6 percent.
    Countering Democrats’ enthusiasm, Moore’s supporters have voted more in recent low-turnout elections, including the U.S. Senate primary in which Moore prevailed.
    Several women have accused Moore, 70, of initiating unwanted sexual encounters with them, mostly when they were teenagers and he was in his 30s. Leigh Corfman told The Post that she was 14 at the time of the alleged encounter. Moore has denied the allegations of sexual misconduct, arguing that he is the victim of a political conspiracy by Republicans, Democrats, the news media, socialists and lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender people “who want to change our culture.”
    At the same time, Moore has not ruled out that he dated teenagers with their parents’ permission when he was in his 30s. “If I did, I’m not going to dispute these things, but I don’t remember anything like that,” Moore said on Sean Hannity’s radio show on Nov. 10 in response to claims that he had dated 17- or 18-year-old girls.
    Other women interviewed by The Post in recent weeks said that Moore pursued them when they were between the ages of 16 and 18, while he was in his early 30s. The Post has spoken to a dozen people who worked at the Gadsden Mall in Gadsden, Ala., in the late 1970s and early 1980s and said they recalled Moore as a frequent presence. Several women who worked there said they remember Moore making them feel uncomfortable.
    The Alabama electorate is nearly unanimous in its view that men in their 30s should not date 16-year-old girls. Among likely voters, 91 percent say such relationships are never appropriate. Fifty-six percent say older men dating teenagers was not more acceptable back in the 1970s, although 32 percent think it had been more acceptable, including 41 percent of Moore’s supporters.
    Of the social issues that have dominated much of the debate in the race, abortion has been a bigger asset for Moore than his campaign focus of fighting against those who would increase protections for gay, lesbian and transgender people.
    Just over 3 in 10 Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they trust Jones more to handle rights for gay and transgender people, while 51 percent say they have greater trust in Moore. By contrast, 80 percent of the same group expresses greater trust for Moore on abortion, and 78 percent trust him more on health care.

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    Moore has argued that judges who support same-sex-marriage or legalized sodomy should be impeached, as both positions go against his view of divine law, which he says has supreme authority over the Constitution.
    Republican-leaning voters with college degrees are among the most likely to trust Jones on gay and transgender rights — 44 percent trust him, while 39 percent trust Moore. Among Republicans with some college education or less, Moore leads, 57 percent to 25 percent on trust to handle these issues.
    The poll was conducted by The Post and the Schar School of Policy and Government at George Mason University via landline and cellphone.


    https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.3e62c2c1579c
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    Super Moderator GeorgiaPeach's Avatar
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    There has been so much mud and dollars thrown to defeat Roy Moore. It has been a real pile on by democrats and establishment republicans among others. Hopefully he can be victorious and go to Washington to help the American people against illegal immigration and progressive liberal ideas opposed to "America First" and Make America Great Again".
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    Super Moderator Newmexican's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GeorgiaPeach View Post
    There has been so much mud and dollars thrown to defeat Roy Moore. It has been a real pile on by democrats and establishment republicans among others. Hopefully he can be victorious and go to Washington to help the American people against illegal immigration and progressive liberal ideas opposed to "America First" and Make America Great Again".
    The slick political ads with paid professional actors are running non stop, back to back and sickening. The Democrats are so desperate for a win that they will stoop to any low to do it. Everytime I see one of the Dems little morality lesson TV ads, it just motivates me to vote their sick socialism out.
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    Roy Moore says 'campaign momentum through the roof!' after new Senate poll

    Updated Dec 1, 11:07 AM; Posted Dec 1, 11:07 AM

    By Paul Gattis

    Roy Moore touted an Alabama Senate poll released Thursday, declaring that "our campaign's momentum is through the roof!'

    The poll, conducted by Atlantic Media and Research, had Moore with an 8-point lead over Democrat Doug Jones.

    The election is Dec. 12.

    The poll, conducted by Rick Shaftan, was done at the behest of major donors to conservative candidates as well as conservative-leaning super PACs, he said. The poll was first released to Breitbart News and Shaftan also provided a copy of the poll's findings to AL.com.

    The poll has Moore with 48 percent support to Jones' 40 percent, according to weighted data. That's an improvement of 5 points since the same firm released a poll last week.

    At least four polls have been released this week and all four have put Moore in the lead. The 8-point advantage, however, is his largest lead of the week.

    "Despite an unprecedented assault on our campaign by radical liberals, the Washington establishment, and the mainstream media, our campaign's momentum is through the roof!" Moore posted on his campaign Facebook page.

    "And it's all because of YOU, the best grassroots army of supporters around! We still have much work to do overcoming all the #FakeNews noise being thrown our way, but we know that with supporters like you on our side, nothing can stand in our way. On to victory!"

    The Jones campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

    The commentary in the poll finding's memo appears tailored to its conservative-leaning audience.

    "The Moore campaign needs to run a heavy schedule of made-for-TV big rallies to show images of strong grass-roots support to bolster the existing message," the commentary said. They also need to hit back Jones in earned and paid media on the Democrat's radical left-wing extremism, blind loyalty to Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi and bizarre enthusiastic support for taxpayer-funded partial birth and other abortions up to the moment of birth."

    In an interview with AL.com last month, Jones said that he favors no changes to Alabama's abortion law, which restricts abortions performed after 21.6 weeks gestation to special medical emergencies.

    The poll sampled 373 likely voters Monday through Wednesday with a margin of error of 5.1 percent. Poll participants were reached via cell phones and landlines by live operators.

    The negative impact of allegations made against Moore alleging sexual misconduct have diminished, the commentary said. Moore's favorable rating rose to 34 percent from last week's poll while Jones' favorables are at 32 percent.


    http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/201...gn_moment.html
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  5. #5
    Administrator Jean's Avatar
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    Hard to believe polls esp after the last presidential election. I predict Judge Roy Moore will win.
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    Volunteers & Donors from across America needed to help Judge Roy Moore for US Senate



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    CBS News Poll: As Majority of Alabama Republicans Believe Allegations Against Roy Moo

    CBS News Poll: As Majority of Alabama Republicans Believe Allegations Against Roy Moore False, Judge Takes Commanding Lead

    by MATTHEW BOYLE
    3 Dec 2017
    Mobile, AL
    8,141 comments

    MOBILE, Alabama — As the majority of Alabama Republicans believe that the allegations against Judge Roy Moore are untrue, he now takes a commanding lead over radical leftist Democrat Doug Jones per a new CBS News poll.

    The poll found Moore with a six-point lead over Jones. Moore, at 49 percent, leads Jones — who’s stuck in the low 40s at 43 percent — while four percent said they would vote for someone else and four percent said they are undecided.

    The CBS News/YouGov poll, conducted between Nov. 28 and Dec. 1, surveyed 1,037 Alabamians registered to vote in Alabama. It further segmented the poll results into some results among registered voters and others among likely voters. Among registered voters, the margin of error is 3.8 percent. Among likely voters, the margin of error is 4.8 percent. The results for the election, with Moore leading Jones, were broken down to likely voters.

    Another part broken down to likely voters was polling specifically about the allegations about Moore. Perhaps unsurprisingly, a significant number of Alabamians do not believe the allegations against Moore one bit.

    A total of 54 percent — a majority — of likely voters in Alabama said that the allegations are either definitely false, probably false, or that they have “haven’t heard enough yet to say” whether they believe the allegations against Moore. Only 45 percent of all likely voters in Alabama say they believe the allegations are either definitely or probably true — with just 21 percent saying they are definitely true.

    What is more, when broken down by party affiliation, the numbers get even more profoundly in Judge Moore’s favor. A total of 83 percent of Republicans say that the allegations are either definitely false, probably false, or that they have “haven’t heard enough yet to say” whether they believe the allegations against Moore. Only 5 percent of Republicans say the allegations against Moore are definitely true, and 12 percent of Republicans say they are probably true. Among Democrats, 86 percent say they are either definitely or probably true — while just 14 percent say they are definitely or probably false or that they have not heard enough yet to say.

    Whether the allegations are true or not, the survey’s respondents were asked if what Moore is accused of is serious — and 82 percent said it was, while 18 percent said it was not serious. Twenty-one percent said the allegations do not concern them and 52 percent said the allegations concern them but “other things matter more,” while just 27 percent said the allegations were the “top concern” in the race.

    Likely voters who do not believe the allegations said that they believe a combination of forces — including newspapers and the media, Democrats, other Republicans, and “people seeking attention or money” — are “behind” the allegations against Moore. Eighty-nine percent said that newspaper and the media are behind them, while only 11 percent said they were not behind them. When asked if Democrats were behind the allegations, 91 percent said yes and only 9 percent said no — while 51 percent believe other Republicans were behind them and 49 percent do not. When it comes to “people seeking attention or money,” 93 percent believe they are behind the allegations and only seven percent do not.

    Stunningly, as well, another detail in the poll finds that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s original opposition to Moore—and his calls for Moore to “step aside” — only helped Moore solidify more support in the wake of the allegations. A whopping 30 percent of likely voters said that McConnell’s call for Moore to step aside in the wake of the allegations said it made them more likely to back Moore, while just six percent said it made them less likely to back Moore. Sixty-four percent of likely voters say that McConnell’s call for Moore to step aside does not matter in their voting decision.

    “This poll is further proof that Mitch McConnell has zero sway or influence over Republican voters,” Andy Surabian, a senior adviser to the Great America Alliance and an ex-White House aide who worked as a deputy for then-Chief Strategist Stephen K. Bannon, told Breitbart News. “Never has a party leader been so universally disliked by the very voters he’s supposed to represent.”

    This comes as on Sunday on ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos, McConnell backed off his call for Moore to “step aside.”

    “Well, I think — we’re going to let the people of Alabama decide a week from Tuesday who they want to send to the Senate,” McConnell said instead, a drastic change from his position that Moore should step aside just a few weeks ago.

    http://www.breitbart.com/big-governm...mmanding-lead/
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  8. #8
    Super Moderator Newmexican's Avatar
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    In Alabama, the Republican Party has closed ranks around Moore, arguing either that the allegations against him are questionable or that putting a Republican in the U.S. Senate is a more important consideration. Shelby, Alabama’s senior senator, is the only statewide elected official to announce that he did not vote for Moore but opted to write in a different person’s name.
    BTW, Shelby used to be a Democrat....
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  9. #9
    MW
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    I may be wrong but I think the Fox News poll and media is just doing everything the can to add drama to this election to benefit themselves. The more drama, the more newsworthy. Honestly, I'd be surprised if Roy Moore lost.
    Last edited by MW; 12-12-2017 at 01:13 AM.

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