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    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    Democrats should fear the depths of Donald Trump’s support

    Democrats should fear the depths of Donald Trump’s support

    By Jonathan Capehart December 21 at 4:56 PM

    A word of caution to those Democrats, particularly those supporting Hillary Clinton, openly rooting for Donald Trump to win the Republican presidential nomination. Yes, his campaign has been six months of ugly, gasp-worthy rhetoric that should make the Republican Party a no-go zone for a majority of the American electorate on Election Day 2016. But folks like it. And that is reason to worry.

    What if Michael Smerconish was right? What if Trump’s numbers are really higher than the polls show because folks are lying to pollsters? What if a Trump vs. Clinton race isn’t a slam dunk for the latter as everyone thinks? Thanks to a study conducted by Kyle Dropp, co-founder and executive director of polling and data science at Morning Consult, we have the frightening answer. Smerconish WAS right!

    Dropp interviewed 2,397 registered Republicans and GOP-leaning independents. All the participants started taking part in the survey online. Then things got interesting. While a third of them did the entire survey online, one third answered questions asked by a live person on the phone and the remaining third finished the poll with an automated voice. The result?

    “The study finds that Trump performs about six percentage points better online [38 percent] than via live telephone interviewing [32 percent],” writes Dropp, “and that his advantage online is driven by adults with higher levels of education.” That means Trump’s increased support is coming from better educated and wealthier people who appear to be embarrassed to have another living soul know they support Trump. Dropp explains that this is due “in part to ‘social desirability bias,’ in which respondents answer questions in a manner they believe will be viewed favorably by others.”

    In other words, people are more inclined not to tell the truth to a pollster if they believe it will make them look bad. This has become known as the Bradley Effect. Tom Bradley was the African American mayor of Los Angeles who ran for governor of California in 1982. He was leading in the polls right up to Election Day, but lost narrowly once actual ballots were counted. Then, folks didn’t want to be viewed as racist. Now, folks appear to not want to be viewed as supporting a racist.

    The caution here is that Trump’s support is deeper than we want to admit. And if we’re really being honest, we know his support doesn’t just reside within the Republican Party. Thus, Trump’s “I really don’t give a damn” mien could prove dangerous to a Clinton campaign that prizes control.

    No, I do not think Trump will move into the Oval Office. This nation elects presidents of the United States whose campaigns are big tents that reach out to as many voters, different people, as possible. Trump’s campaign is a wall. But there are more people on his side of it than we’d like to admit.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...rumps-support/
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  2. #2
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    In other words, people are more inclined not to tell the truth to a pollster if they believe it will make them look bad. This has become known as the Bradley Effect. Tom Bradley was the African American mayor of Los Angeles who ran for governor of California in 1982. He was leading in the polls right up to Election Day, but lost narrowly once actual ballots were counted. Then, folks didn’t want to be viewed as racist. Now, folks appear to not want to be viewed as supporting a racist.

    The caution here is that Trump’s support is deeper than we want to admit. And if we’re really being honest, we know his support doesn’t just reside within the Republican Party. Thus, Trump’s “I really don’t give a damn” mien could prove dangerous to a Clinton campaign that prizes control.
    Okay, it's time for Americans to stop this mien. First of all, Donald Trump is not a racist, he's an American who wants to protect our country from the ravages of immigration and globalism, which means he's a Patriot. Second of all, Americans are not afraid of looking bad, they don't want the personal attacks or being accused of racism for supporting a candidate for President who wants to protect our country and make it great again which yes, in order to do that means reversing the policies that caused our demise like massive immigration and free trade treason agreements. Third of all, here at ALIPAC, we're very familiar with the phony accusations of racism because we want to stop illegal immigration, because pro-immigration lobbies and the 501 C 3 tax fraud "charities" they use for their political activism have used the phony race card about us when it doesn't apply at all, which means:

    THAT DOG WON'T HUNT!

    So writers, authors, publishers, editors. commentators, journalists .... stop the attacks on Americans for doing what is right to save our country. You write articles about how Russians are afraid to tell the truth to a pollster, even though the polls are fear-protected by design. Yet, our polls show actual fear of Americans to tell the truth to a pollster.

    So which nation that has the greater freedom? That's becoming a very good question.

    Tyranny comes in many forms, it's not just government that can impose a tyranny, in the United States for example, it can be and appears to be the Tyranny of our Free Press.

    Fix it.
    A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
    Save America, Deport Congress! - Judy

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