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    Senior Member lorrie's Avatar
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    Donald Trump is about to blow up the California primary. Here's how

    Donald Trump is about to blow up the California primary.
    Here's how



    Donald Trump appears in Fountain Hills, Ariz., on March 19.

    (Ralph Freso / Getty Images)


    By Phil Willon, Patrick McGreevy and Christina Bellantoni

    March 31, 2016 : 11:40 AM

    California’s traditionally ho-hum primary election is about to get whipsawed by the frenzy surrounding the 2016 presidential campaign.
    Because California may decide Donald Trump’s fate as the possible Republican nominee, the high-stakes contest is expected deliver a
    surge in voter turnout that could shake up races up and down the ballot.

    “I think if Donald Trump is on the ballot, all the rules are out the window,” said Bay Area Democratic consultant Katie Merrill. “It’s a
    mad-as-hell-and-we’re-not-going-to-take-it-anymore electorate.”

    Here are a few possible twists and turns to keep an eye on in the June 7 primary.

    Who can vote?

    Depends on which primary you're talking about.

    Because the GOP holds a closed primary, anyone who wants to cast a ballot for one of the party's three remaining presidential candidates
    must be a registered Republican. That means no Libertarians, disaffected Democrats or decline-to-state voters frequently referred to as
    independents can participate — unless they re-register as Republicans.

    Democrats allow decline-to-state voters to participate in their primary, but no one else. Green Party members and others would need to
    change party registration to get a chance to choose between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. With unaffiliated voters allowed to show
    up, that could help Sanders. The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times poll released this week found that decline to state voters preferred
    Sanders over Clinton, 44% to 35%.

    The rest of the ballot will be a jungle primary for state Assembly and Senate races, congressional contests and the election to replace
    retiring U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer.

    Wait — what's a jungle primary?

    California has a “top two” primary system. The two candidates who receive the most votes in the primary, regardless of party, face-off
    in the November general election.

    For example, voters in the strongly Democratic 44th Congressional District in Los Angeles have 11 candidates to choose from on June 7.
    Because the best known contenders — state Sen. Isadore Hall (D-Compton) and former Hermosa Beach City Councilwoman Nanette Barragan —
    and all but three of the candidates on the ballot are Democrats, that means it's likely the top two Democrats would advance to the Nov. 8 ballot.

    But if enough Republicans who show up to vote in the presidential race choose someone from their own party in the congressional primary, a
    Republican could conceivably come in second. That person would face a Democrat in the general and face a nearly impossible task given the
    lopsided nature of the district, which backed President Obama over Mitt Romney 85% to 14% in 2012.

    The same dynamic could take hold in the 46th Congressional District in Orange County, where the two front-runners are former Democratic
    state senators Lou Correa and Joe Dunn.

    Here's where that might get interesting

    In the 24th Congressional District, for example, there is a cast of nine characters from both parties seeking to make it to the November ballot to
    replace retiring Democratic Rep. Lois Capps. And it's anyone's guess who might advance given the scarcity of polling and the relatively fluid nature
    of a crowded, open-seat contest.

    So if the roughly 115,000 registered Republicans there show up in big numbers to vote in the presidential primary, that could give a boost to the
    top two GOP candidates running, Assemblyman Katcho Achadjian and Justin Fareed.

    There are several Democrats in the race who want to topple the front-runner, county supervisor Salud Carbajal. Santa Barbara Mayor Helene Schneider
    and farmer Bill Ostrander, who is running as a liberal in the model of Sanders.

    If one Democrat and one Republican advance to November, the Santa Barbara coastline just might be home to the most competitive race in the state.
    Obama won the district with 54% in 2012, but Capps only won by four points in 2014 and statewide contests have been much more closely divided.

    The turnout question marks could also force Democrats running in tight races to reach out to moderate Republican voters, even in districts that lean
    heavily to the left.

    Voting analyst Paul Mitchell said he wouldn’t be surprised to see that happening in the hotly contested Silicon Valley congressional battle between
    Democratic Rep. Mike Honda and his Democratic challenger Ro Khanna.



    Sanchez, left, and Harris. (Associated Press)Then there's the Senate race

    There's an argument that if Latinos show up in big numbers to send a message they don't like Trump, that could benefit Latino candidates on the ballot.

    Nowhere is the question more pressing than in the Senate race, where Rep. Loretta Sanchez is attempting to make it to the general election to face
    Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris, who leads in the polls and has both national support and a massive fundraising operation. If one of the Republican hopefuls —
    Tom Del Beccaro, George “Duf” Sundheim and Ron Unz — manages to make it past Sanchez in June, Harris would be a near lock to win the seat in
    November given the state's Democratic leanings.

    “It’s much more likely that one of the Republicans will get in,” Mitchell said.

    If Latinos turn out and choose Sanchez, who has made her heritage a central point of her campaign, the general election could be a long and ugly slog
    that ends up with a Democratic senator either way.

    Republican political consultant Mike Madrid sees having Trump on the ballot and campaigning in California triggering a voter backlash among Latinos to
    Sanchez's benefit. “I think Trump helps her,” he said.

    Antonovich (Francine Orr / Los Angeles Times)Some state races are similar question mark

    A Trump-fueled increase in voter turnout could help Republican Los Angeles County Supervisor Michael Antonovich glide into the November election for
    the 25th state Senate district, even though voter registration in the district is 41% Democratic and 30% Republican.

    The race has a crowded field of Democrats, including former Democratic Assemblyman Anthony Portantino and former Pasadena Police Lt. Phlunte' Riddle.
    Trump turnout could end Glendale utility tax

    Here's another wildcard: the impact of local ballot measures – especially when it comes to taxes and school bonds. The wave of new voters attracted by
    Trump tend to relish the candidate’s hostility toward government and its spending ways, and that certainly is on the minds of city officials in Glendale.

    The city is opposing a local ballot measure supported by local tea party activists to rescind the Glendale utility users tax, which delivers more than 15%
    of the city’s general fund revenue to pay for police, fire protection and other services.

    “Yes, we are concerned,” said Tom Lorenz, spokesman for the city. “We’ve been paying attention to what’s been going on across the country.”
    Santa Monica pollster John Fairbank, who has been studiously trying to measure the potential “Trump and Bernie effect” on local ballot measures,
    finds Republicans are less supportive than Democrats and unaffiliated voters.


    Donnelly
    at a gun range in Watsonville. (Barbara Davidson / Los Angeles Times)What about Trump coattails?

    Former state Assemblyman Tim Donnelly, a Tea Party favorite who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2014, jumped in at the last minute to
    challenge fellow Republican Rep. Paul Cook of Yucca Valley.

    Donnelly, a talk radio show host who lives in the San Bernardino Mountains, said the successes of Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz in the Republican
    presidential campaign show this election favors “insurgent candidates” more than any time in recent history and he thinks that will favor his
    congressional bid.

    Will that many people really show up?

    If the race is still undecided at the time of California’s primary, Republican voter turnout could increase anywhere from 20 to 40 percent,
    based on what has occurred in other states, political analysts say.

    Among Democrats, voter turnout is expected, at best, to be on par with previous presidential primaries. Turnout could be lower, however,
    because Clinton has such a wide delegate lead.

    Then what?

    The California electorate in the November general election will be far different than the makeup of voters who cast ballots in June. Obama
    won in 2012 with 59.3% of the vote.

    If Trump becomes the Republican presidential nominee, political analysts expect a substantial anti-Trump movement in California during the
    general election, the first opportunity for non-Republicans to vote against him. Voter turnout among Latinos also would rise substantially,
    Madrid predicted.

    “California has huge Spanish-language media markets … so you’re going to have much more reaction from the community,” Madrid said.

    Democratic leaders in the Legislature say a backlash like that could help them regain the supermajority they enjoyed two years ago.

    “To the extent presidential politics creates California coattails, 2016 is shaping up to be a banner year for Democrats,” said Senate President
    Pro Tem Kevin De León (D-Los Angeles). “In America’s most diverse state, I fully expect every demographic group he has systematically
    alienated over the course of this campaign to turn out in droves to vote against him and for Democrats up and down the ballot."

    In the Senate 26 of the 40 members are Democrats, so that party only needs to pick up one seat to return to a supermajority. They need
    three more seats in the Assembly to reclaim one.

    Assembly Speaker Anthony Rendon (D-Paramount) said he is not concerned Trump turnout would hurt in the Golden State.

    “I do think Trump alienates a lot of voters; Republicans, independents and Democrats alike and I do think that will be good for Democrats
    in general,” Rendon said. “California is a different ballgame. I definitely think our independent voters tend to be more progressive than they
    are conservative and that’s going to help us.”

    But...

    California's ballot measures could scramble any normal general election presidential race math.

    The state may have two, highly contentious initiatives on the ballot to stir up voters: A proposal to require background checks on gun owners
    buying ammunition and legalizing the recreational use of marijuana.

    Neither proposal has qualified yet for the November ballot, but both have a more than legitimate shot.

    The gun initiative is being championed by Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom, who already has hopped into the 2018 gubernatorial race, and is fiercely opposed
    by gun-rights groups
    who plan to keep their campaign up through the fall.

    The marijuana initiative is being backed by former Facebook president and Napster co-founder Sean Parker, who has donated $1 million of the $2.25 million
    raised by the campaign, and would make California the fifth state in the nation to legalize recreational use.


    http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-p...htmlstory.html

  2. #2
    Senior Member Judy's Avatar
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    There's an argument that if Latinos show up in big numbers to send a message they don't like Trump, that could benefit Latino candidates on the ballot.
    That assumes that Hispanic and Latino American citizens don't like Trump. That assumes that because he wants to secure our borders they don't like him. I've never subscribed to this assumption and believe it's dead wrong and racist. I believe Hispanic and Latino Americans view our policies the same as every other group of Americans and want the best for our country, and what view they hold is either Democrat or Republican, not Latino vs Euro.

    The more conversation there is about immigration control and border security the more Americans of all ethnicity will support the common-sense of securing our borders and fixing our trade deals. Hispanics and Latinos who are voting citizens of the US are as directly affected by the consequences of illegal immigration as anyone else and even more so in border states. It makes no sense that they would want to lose their job or business to illegal aliens any less than anyone else somewhere else. It makes no sense that they want to pay taxes or incur higher national debt to support illegal aliens on welfare who also stole their jobs.
    A Nation Without Borders Is Not A Nation - Ronald Reagan
    Save America, Deport Congress! - Judy

    Support our FIGHT AGAINST illegal immigration & Amnesty by joining our E-mail Alerts at https://eepurl.com/cktGTn

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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    You can register to vote, or re-register as a Republican online
    (if you have a CA. driver's license or ID card that says you are a U.S.citizen)
    and you can vote by mail, which means you can vote from home 24 hours a day 7 days a week for a month before election day without getting dressed or driving to the polling place. The mailman will pick up your ballot at your mailbox.

    You must re-register by May 23, 2016 for the June election.

    June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election | California ...

    www.sos.ca.gov/.../june-7-2016-president...

    Secretary of State of California

    Information for the June 7, 2016, Presidential Primary Election.


    1-800-345-8683
    Last edited by JohnDoe2; 04-01-2016 at 12:32 PM.
    NO AMNESTY

    Don't reward the criminal actions of millions of illegal aliens by giving them citizenship.


    Sign in and post comments here.

    Please support our fight against illegal immigration by joining ALIPAC's email alerts here https://eepurl.com/cktGTn

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    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    Qualifications


    To register to vote in California, you must be:


    http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/voter-registration/

    Additional Information

    For more information on registering to vote you may want to visit the Secretary of State'sFrequently Asked Questions.

    Have Questions or Want to Report Fraud?

    Call the Secretary of State's Voter Hotline at (800) 345-VOTE (8683) or your county elections office.
    Last edited by JohnDoe2; 04-01-2016 at 12:57 PM.
    NO AMNESTY

    Don't reward the criminal actions of millions of illegal aliens by giving them citizenship.


    Sign in and post comments here.

    Please support our fight against illegal immigration by joining ALIPAC's email alerts here https://eepurl.com/cktGTn

  5. #5
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    I was a Decline to State voter here in California, and I have already sent in my voter registration form to register as a Republican. As soon as the primaries are over, I have another voter registration form all ready to mail in and register again as a Decline to State voter. I will mail it in the same day I vote for Trump in the Republican primary election.
    Support ALIPAC'sFIGHT AGAINST illegal immigration & Amnesty by joining our E-mail Alerts at http://eepurl.com/cktGTn

  6. #6
    Senior Member JohnDoe2's Avatar
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    NO AMNESTY

    Don't reward the criminal actions of millions of illegal aliens by giving them citizenship.


    Sign in and post comments here.

    Please support our fight against illegal immigration by joining ALIPAC's email alerts here https://eepurl.com/cktGTn

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