Thread: Donald Trump Falls: Ben Carson Surges To Lead In Poll

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Donald Trump Falls: Ben Carson Surges To Lead In Poll

BY JOHN MERLINE, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
10/02/2015 05:54 PM ET

Donald Trump has boasted that he's "leading every poll and in most cases big." Not anymore. The latest IBD/TIPP Poll shows him in second place, seven points behind Ben Carson.

The nationwide survey found that 24% of Republicans back Carson, compared with 17% who say they support Trump.

Marco Rubio came in third with 11% and Carly Fiorina fourth at 9%. Jeb Bush, once considered a prohibitive favorite, ranked fifth with just 8% support, which was a point lower than those who say they are still undecided.

The IBD/TIPP Poll has a proven track record for accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate. And the New York Times concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 polls over the three weeks leading up to the 2012 election.

The October poll, conducted from Sept. 26 to Oct. 1, included 377 registered voters who are Republican or registered independents who lean toward the Republican Party, with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

Peak Trump?

Other polls show Trump's support slipping in recent weeks. The Real Clear Politics average of six national polls shows him falling from 30.5% in mid-September to 23.3% by the end of the month. That average does not include the IBD/TIPP findings.

"Things appear to be catching up with Trump on multiple fronts," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts IBD's monthly poll. "In addition to facing increasing attacks from other candidates, Trump's boycott of Fox News may have set him back," Mayur said, noting that the poll was being conducted during Trump's self-imposed hiatus.

When asked on CNBC about his slipping poll numbers, Trump said that "if I fell behind badly, I would certainly get out."

Carson's gain comes after his controversial remarks on "Meet the Press" that he couldn't support a Muslim for president.

Rubio's third-place standing shows he has gained considerable ground since the second GOP debate. But Fiorina, who was widely seen as having won that debate, has been unable to capitalize on it with Republicans.

Hillary Clinton Leads Dems

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is the top pick of 42% of 344 registered Democrats or those leaning Democratic. Vice President Joe Biden is second at 22%, even though he has yet to announce whether he plans to run.

Bernie Sanders is backed by 18% of Democrats. Sanders' strongest support is among those 18-24, of whom 48% back the self-identified socialist, while only 14% back Clinton.

Other October poll findings:

57% of those following the Hillary Clinton email scandal say she should drop out of the presidential race if the FBI determines that she sent or received classified emails on her private email server while secretary of state. Among Democrats, 75% say she should stay in.

53% of those following the refugee crisis oppose bringing 185,000 refugees fleeing the Middle East into the U.S., and 63% say Congress should first OK any plans to admit the refugees.

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Donald Trump has boasted that he's "leading every poll and in most cases big." Not anymore. The latest IBD/TIPP Poll shows him in second place, seven points behind Ben Carson.

Well, you just blew your credibility with that lead in, Investors Business Daily (IBD), and based on who your "polling partner" is, you can manipulate whatever poll you conduct, especially itsy bitsy polls like the one you did with only 377 polled with a "YUUUUGE" 5 point margin of error. Besides aren't you one of those "on line" polls all the pundits make fun of and discount?!

I guess your Hedge Fund Boys are upset, huh? Who else reads your paper? Oh, and did you not think we would find out that your polling partner TIPP is also the polling partner for Christian Science Monitor? Did you not think we would connect the dots between your polling partner, its partner, Carson and the Muslim issue? No surprise there, IBD.

You fix another poll like you did this one, and your poll will be the laughing stock of the election.

Oh, and you might want to suggest to TIPP, they update their website. It looks like they haven't done that since 2009. What kind of outfit are you running with anyway?

http://www.tipponline.com/about-tipp...elcome-to-tipp

TIPP ON LINE:

Welcome to TIPP

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Published on Sunday, 15 February 2009 22:06
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Overview

TIPP is the polling unit of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, a nationally recognized research firm of both syndicated and custom Market Research solutions to the world's most respected brands for over a decade. TIPP is also a leader in the publication of economic and industry-specific consumer confidence and purchase plan indicators.

For the past 12 years, TechnoMetrica has been the exclusive polling partner of the Investor's Business Daily, a leading national daily newspaper. TIPP is also the polling partner of the Christian Science Monitor.

TIPP is America's most accurate pollster, having come #1 in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections.

The TechnoMetrica team is relentless in its pursuit of perfection. Heralding from three continents and armed with a multicultural perspective, our team's background and experience spans the spectrum of academic disciplines and practical applications.

With backgrounds in econometrics, multivariate & time-series analysis, statistics, biostatistics, epidemiological research, database management, environmental and mechanical engineering, psychology, arts, media and advertising, it's no wonder, Wes Mann, Editor-in-Chief of Investor's Business Daily had this to say about our team:

"In a business where credibility is everything, the people at TechnoMetrica are the very definition of credibility and professionalism. Punctilious in their research, careful in their ethics and always solicitous of our needs, they are more than trusted partners; they're part of our team."

TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence is a full-service research and consulting firm. With over half a century of combined experience, TechnoMetrica's staff brings a unique mix of talent and experience to bear on the pressing problems and research needs of today's fast-paced world of small, medium and large-scale businesses.

Our Vision

Our vision is to add value to our clients and policy arena through constant innovation and creation of new services.

Company Fast Facts

Founded in 1991
Headquartered in Ramsey, NJ
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Company Brochure: Get a copy of TechnoMetrica brochure by clicking here

TIPP Poll Past Performance

The TIPP Poll was the most accurate presidential poll having come in #1 in both the 2004 and 2008 Presidential elections. An article summarizing the results is available here. The official election results compiled by the Federal Election Commission for 2008 is available here and for 2004 is available here. Readers may note that some analysis of results and pollster performance ranking on the Internet are obsolete because they analyze accuracy based on election night results, which are significantly different from the final results when all votes were counted.

The Obama lapdog Media CANNOT be trusted. Trump will duke it out.

Can you believe they would issue a poll like this and brag about it in their first line like we're a bunch of idiots? Unbelievable. Yes, Trump will duke it out.

Ben Carson is an amnesty peddling shyster. He says we can not deport the illegal aliens who are here now. Yes we can and there can be no compromising on that. The illegal aliens must get the hell out of our country--period. If other faux conservatives think they are going to shove on us an amnesty peddling huckster, we must tell them loud and clear, no you don't. If illegal aliens get to stay here legally that is amnesty. And amnesty will be the death of all things conservative. You can not be a conservative and for amnesty. I don't gave a damn what a candidate may say on any other issue. The illegal alien squatters must get the hell out of our country.

This is my line in the sand. This is the hill I will die on. Illegal alien squatters must get the hell out of our country. There is no compromising on this, no negotiating on this. And the faux conservatives had better get it into their heads that we are dead serious. This is a warning to them, it is illegal aliens get out, or there will be a knock down, bare knuckles, civil war in the conservative movement. We are tired of politicians who will not fight the open borders no country lobby. And I am tired of people who should be on our side working against us because they think their pet issue is more important than stopping illegal immigration. Stopping illegal immigration and making illegal alien squatters go home and ending birthright citizenship must be the top priority issues. The mass invasion of illegal aliens is an crisis and has more immediate importance than anything else--period.

Yes, I know, I just started a thread to remind everyone of that fact on Carson. We need to flood our website with articles about Carson and his Amnesty. I just can't believe Republicans don't know this or if they do why 17% or whatever number it is are voting in polls for him. 90% of Americans believe illegal immigration is a problem that needs to be solved, so why would any of them support Carson, the 10% who think it's okay plus 7% from illegal aliens posing as voters when they're called? Something is going on.

Here's the link to my thread on Carson's attack on Trump's deportation plan and his support for guest worker permit amnesty:

http://www.alipac.us/f9/ben-carson-c...ctical-323994/

trump you better not get out we need you. you know more about our world then they do
don't back down now . & the poll are not right ben I don't like at all
good luck trump

I think it's about time Trump came out with his VP choice. I suggest he make it a good one!

Looks like Carson scored big on his "no Muslim President" comment while Trump fell down the ladder with his "Id put a Muslim in my cabinet" comment.

W