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Donald Trump Falls: Ben Carson Surges To Lead In Poll

BY JOHN MERLINE, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY
10/02/2015 05:54 PM ET

Donald Trump has boasted that he's "leading every poll and in most cases big." Not anymore. The latest IBD/TIPP Poll shows him in second place, seven points behind Ben Carson.

The nationwide survey found that 24% of Republicans back Carson, compared with 17% who say they support Trump.

Marco Rubio came in third with 11% and Carly Fiorina fourth at 9%. Jeb Bush, once considered a prohibitive favorite, ranked fifth with just 8% support, which was a point lower than those who say they are still undecided.

The IBD/TIPP Poll has a proven track record for accuracy, based on its performance in the past three presidential elections. In a comparison of the final results of various pollsters for the 2004 and 2008 elections, IBD/TIPP was the most accurate. And the New York Times concluded that IBD/TIPP was the most accurate among 23 polls over the three weeks leading up to the 2012 election.

The October poll, conducted from Sept. 26 to Oct. 1, included 377 registered voters who are Republican or registered independents who lean toward the Republican Party, with a margin of error of +/- 5 percentage points.

Peak Trump?

Other polls show Trump's support slipping in recent weeks. The Real Clear Politics average of six national polls shows him falling from 30.5% in mid-September to 23.3% by the end of the month. That average does not include the IBD/TIPP findings.

"Things appear to be catching up with Trump on multiple fronts," said Raghavan Mayur, president of TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence, which conducts IBD's monthly poll. "In addition to facing increasing attacks from other candidates, Trump's boycott of Fox News may have set him back," Mayur said, noting that the poll was being conducted during Trump's self-imposed hiatus.

When asked on CNBC about his slipping poll numbers, Trump said that "if I fell behind badly, I would certainly get out."

Carson's gain comes after his controversial remarks on "Meet the Press" that he couldn't support a Muslim for president.

Rubio's third-place standing shows he has gained considerable ground since the second GOP debate. But Fiorina, who was widely seen as having won that debate, has been unable to capitalize on it with Republicans.

Hillary Clinton Leads Dems

Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton is the top pick of 42% of 344 registered Democrats or those leaning Democratic. Vice President Joe Biden is second at 22%, even though he has yet to announce whether he plans to run.

Bernie Sanders is backed by 18% of Democrats. Sanders' strongest support is among those 18-24, of whom 48% back the self-identified socialist, while only 14% back Clinton.

Other October poll findings:

57% of those following the Hillary Clinton email scandal say she should drop out of the presidential race if the FBI determines that she sent or received classified emails on her private email server while secretary of state. Among Democrats, 75% say she should stay in.

53% of those following the refugee crisis oppose bringing 185,000 refugees fleeing the Middle East into the U.S., and 63% say Congress should first OK any plans to admit the refugees.

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