Thread: What's up? Gas Prices Down???

Originally Posted by Daculling

Originally Posted by jp_48504

Daculling,
Do you have some type of vested interest in oil or a need to be right? You have come on here for some time and seem to only argue about oil and such.

Just curious.

Well, I am very concerned about "peak oil". Now... why I'm here... how peak oil plays out in the US is very dependent on on our immigration situation. First of all we do not need an increasing population. Second we do not need a population that is in-cohesive. If we are going to transition from a fossil fueled economy (by force of nature, not choice) then the two aforementioned problems we face need to be dealt with or a bad situation may become a nightmare. Oil is tied to everything, including immigration. That is why I'm here.

BTW, I check my posts, they are about 50/50 immigration and oil

Daculling, if you will look at the link I provided a couple of posts back relating to massive potential production from the Gulf of Mexico, you will realize that there is a growing consensus that the US sits on vastly more petroleum reserves than were previously believed.

Here's a little clue: The energy companies don't want to be caught with their pants down when they are suddenly unable to provide the world's energy needs. Those guys will provide the clue when we actually start to approach some sort of peak oil scneario because they will then overtly move to consolidate their control over alternative energy sources.

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Daculling, if you will look at the link I provided a couple of posts back relating to massive potential production from the Gulf of Mexico, you will realize that there is a growing consensus that the US sits on vastly more petroleum reserves than were previously believed.

Yes, we have more oil than we previously thought, but in more inaccessible places. Harder to produce.

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Here's a little clue: The energy companies don't want to be caught with their pants down when they are suddenly unable to provide the world's energy needs. Those guys will provide the clue when we actually start to approach some sort of peak oil scneario because they will then overtly move to consolidate their control over alternative energy sources.

I am aware of this but I don't want to talk about it in public. What you say we will peak?

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Here are a couple of charts of inflation-adjusted crude prices:

It was my undersanding that US Gov charts were not allowed here. Funny you posted this. They are obviosly based on the a-fiat currency production model

Originally Posted by Daculling

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Daculling, if you will look at the link I provided a couple of posts back relating to massive potential production from the Gulf of Mexico, you will realize that there is a growing consensus that the US sits on vastly more petroleum reserves than were previously believed.

Yes, we have more oil than we previously thought, but in more inaccessible places. Harder to produce.

Not necessarily. What's more, technology offsets these challenges. There was a time that the only "accessible" oil was that which percolated up to the Earth's surface. Then we figured out how to drill for it. Then we figured out how to use pressure to force more oil out. Then we figured out how to water wash deposits from between rock strata. Technology solves many problems.

Originally Posted by Daculling

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Here's a little clue: The energy companies don't want to be caught with their pants down when they are suddenly unable to provide the world's energy needs. Those guys will provide the clue when we actually start to approach some sort of peak oil scneario because they will then overtly move to consolidate their control over alternative energy sources.

I am aware of this but I don't want to talk about it in public. What you say we will peak?

It is impossible to say when oil will peak because we can only vaguely guess at what new finds will be located and how emerging markets like China will impact consumption. Using currently available data and limited assumptions predicated on current technologies, I think that it would likely be many decades before there is any sort of serious peak oil concern. I have seen estimates of 60 to 70 years that appear realistic, but in that span of time so many variables will come into play that it's hard to even call such speculation an educated guess.

Originally Posted by Daculling

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Here are a couple of charts of inflation-adjusted crude prices:

It was my undersanding that US Gov charts were not allowed here. Funny you posted this. They are obviosly based on the a-fiat currency production model

Price of oil and inflation rates are not speculative. These are hard data.

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Originally Posted by Daculling

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Here are a couple of charts of inflation-adjusted crude prices:

It was my undersanding that US Gov charts were not allowed here. Funny you posted this. They are obviosly based on the a-fiat currency production model

Price of oil and inflation rates are not speculative. These are hard data.

Seems some government data is valid yet others are not. Don't pick and choose DCG.

Originally Posted by Daculling

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Originally Posted by Daculling

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Here are a couple of charts of inflation-adjusted crude prices:

It was my undersanding that US Gov charts were not allowed here. Funny you posted this. They are obviosly based on the a-fiat currency production model

Price of oil and inflation rates are not speculative. These are hard data.

Seems some government data is valid yet others are not. Don't pick and choose DCG.

That's disingenuous. What I was questioning before was governmental INTERPRETATION of data, not the data itself. Can you not comprehend the difference between one and the other?

What's more, you can't read very well. The source for one chart was Bloomberg, the source for the other was the Illinois Oil and Gas Association. I'm not sure how you interpret either of those as being "governmental data."

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Not necessarily. What's more, technology offsets these challenges. There was a time that the only "accessible" oil was that which percolated up to the Earth's surface. Then we figured out how to drill for it. Then we figured out how to use pressure to force more oil out. Then we figured out how to water wash deposits from between rock strata. Technology solves many problems..

Yes, you prove my point exactly. Over time petroleum production requires increased technology and energy to produce. No more cheap oil.

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

It is impossible to say when oil will peak because we can only vaguely guess at what new finds will be located and how emerging markets like China will impact consumption. Using currently available data and limited assumptions predicated on current technologies, I think that it would likely be many decades before there is any sort of serious peak oil concern. I have seen estimates of 60 to 70 years that appear realistic, but in that span of time so many variables will come into play that it's hard to even call such speculation an educated guess.

Yes, it is hard to tell.. most likely demand destruction will take effect before a peak is seen. I diverge with your 70 year prediction though. I think it will be seen within the next 20 years. More reason to fix our problems at home.

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

[
What's more, you can't read very well. The source for one chart was Bloomberg, the source for the other was the Illinois Oil and Gas Association. I'm not sure how you interpret either of those as being "governmental data."

CPI-U Inflaction index - www.bis.gov

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

What's more, you can't read very well.

Somehow does not inspire me to whip a pistol out. Oh well...