Thread: What's up? Gas Prices Down???

Originally Posted by Daculling

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

LOL!!! The reason that domestic oil production has dropped is purely economic. Adjust domestic oil prices for inflation and you will see that the fall-off has nothing to do with supply, but rather with the relative cost of production relative to OPEC states coupled with pressures from environmental groups to limit offshore production.

My point exactly. When you first produce a well it produces about 100 barrels of oil per barrel used to produce it. This is called Energy return on energy invested. As the field ages the ratio drops and as it reaches about 5 to 1 the field is usually shut in as due to the economic reasons. Then the slack is taken up somewhere else that has reserves that are cheap to produce... as in the middle east in the 70's. So where do we go when the middle east starts to decline?

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

As for your claim that oil comes from algae, there is absolutely no proof of that oft-repeated claim. The existence of biological markers in petroleum means nothing because those materials can be introduced by anaerobic bacteria. The Russians, for example, have long rejected the concept of "fossil fuels." Do yourself a favor and read The Deep Hot Biosphere by Thomas Gold.

Yes, neither of us are geologist (I think). What matters is, if we don't discover at least as much oil as we use the system is not sustainable.



Why are we not finding this abiotic oil? Until we are discover more oil than we are producing I can't be convinced that we are not headed for disaster.

1. There is no evidence that the "system" is not sustainable, or at least that it will not be a LONG time before demand outstrips supply based on raw availability of unpumped petroleum.

2. The amount of energy input to obtain oil is neither here nor there unless you are talking about competitive prices. Put simply, whether the OPEC states are able to produce oil more cheaply than domestic producers is immaterial to the issue of whether continued mining is viable. My point was that Texans I know only pump oil when prices rise to the point that they can make good margins. If we lost all access to OPEC oil, prices would rise sharply in the short run and then level off as soon as domestic producers ramped up production. We would still have cheaper petroleum than Europe.

3. I am not a geologist, but I am an engineer and chemist and I did (as I previously mentioned) function as part owner and head of East Coast operations for a fuel additive company, so I am quite well informed on the issue. Not only is there no credible evidence that petroleum is derived from biological materials, the is vast evidence to the contrary, including the existence of petroleum reserves in strata to which living organisms (other than perhaps some anaerobic bacteria that feed on the oil rather than contributing to its production) have never been exposed. Again, you should read up on the available evidence that the Russian-Ukrainian theory of abyssal, abiotic petroleum origins is accurate.

For anyone interested in researching the Russian-Ukrainian model, the following article provides a good jumping-off point:

http://www.csun.edu/~vcgeo005/Energy.html

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Again, you should read up on the available evidence that the Russian-Ukrainian theory of abyssal, abiotic petroleum origins is accurate.

I have read quite a bit about abiotic oil. But it does not explain what I see on the graph. Why have discoveries declined since the mid-sixties?

Originally Posted by Daculling

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Again, you should read up on the available evidence that the Russian-Ukrainian theory of abyssal, abiotic petroleum origins is accurate.

I have read quite a bit about abiotic oil. But it does not explain what I see on the graph. Why have discoveries declined since the mid-sixties?

Didn't you read your graph? It's based on Exxon-Mobil. It is the Russians, who are now leading the world in oil production, by the way, who have been locating their oilfields using the abiotic model, not Exxon-Mobil. Only Western finds have decreased since the mid-'60s. Siberian finds are up.

Daculing, I usually wind up looking silly when I get too self congratulatory but I do know when I'm in over my head and I defer to you on this matter. When possible I like to stick to the superficial. How about double or nothing on Salt water fishing.
Looks like Crocckettsghost has some competition now in this forum.

Originally Posted by andyt

Daculing, I usually wind up looking silly when I get too self congratulatory but I do know when I'm in over my head and I defer to you on this matter. When possible I like to stick to the superficial. How about double or nothing on Salt water fishing.
Looks like Crocckettsghost has some competition now in this forum.

Sorry, but I don't consider a couple of charts based on extremely limited information to constitute serious "competition."

Charts like those provided by Daculling are what led investors to believe that there was intrinsic value in the NASDAQ rather than dollar devaluation inflating stock prices. Complex systems cannot be reduced to bar charts, and I'll debate anyone on the subject based upon a complete fact set.

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Originally Posted by Daculling

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Again, you should read up on the available evidence that the Russian-Ukrainian theory of abyssal, abiotic petroleum origins is accurate.

I have read quite a bit about abiotic oil. But it does not explain what I see on the graph. Why have discoveries declined since the mid-sixties?

Didn't you read your graph? It's based on Exxon-Mobil. It is the Russians, who are now leading the world in oil production, by the way, who have been locating their oilfields using the abiotic model, not Exxon-Mobil. Only Western finds have decreased since the mid-'60s. Siberian finds are up.

Ok, you don't like the source. Here's the USGS that says the same.




Well heres a report from the Army Corps of Engineers that puts global peak petroleum production at 2015. They obviously have some input to the situation because you can't run tanks and planes on love and kindness right?

http://stinet.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTR...c=GetTRDoc.pdf


The Hirsch report to the Department of Energy puts it sometime between 2016-2036

http://www.hilltoplancers.org/stories/hirsch0502.pdf[/img]


Now for your Russian friends... when they stop believing in UFOs and Remote viewing I'll listen to them. Yes they are producing more than Arabia now but that does not prove that oil is abiotic. My question to you now is why does abiotic oil only work in Russia?

Originally Posted by andyt

Daculing, I usually wind up looking silly when I get too self congratulatory but I do know when I'm in over my head and I defer to you on this matter. When possible I like to stick to the superficial. How about double or nothing on Salt water fishing.
Looks like Crocckettsghost has some competition now in this forum.

Yes you are silly. Crocckettsghost's education and experience surpasses mine in many ways.

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Originally Posted by andyt

Daculing, I usually wind up looking silly when I get too self congratulatory but I do know when I'm in over my head and I defer to you on this matter. When possible I like to stick to the superficial. How about double or nothing on Salt water fishing.
Looks like Crocckettsghost has some competition now in this forum.

Sorry, but I don't consider a couple of charts based on extremely limited information to constitute serious "competition."

Charts like those provided by Daculling are what led investors to believe that there was intrinsic value in the NASDAQ rather than dollar devaluation inflating stock prices. Complex systems cannot be reduced to bar charts, and I'll debate anyone on the subject based upon a complete fact set.

I understand dollar devaluation. I also understand the concept of petrodollar. The two are intigrale to undersanding current and future military conficts.

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Sorry, but I don't consider a couple of charts based on extremely limited information to constitute serious "competition."

What's the prize/

Originally Posted by Daculling

Originally Posted by CrocketsGhost

Sorry, but I don't consider a couple of charts based on extremely limited information to constitute serious "competition."

What's the prize/

We don't know. There seemed to be a glove thrown down or rather a tinfoil hat.