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01-25-2016, 12:29 AM #2
I think what these two I'm sure well-intentioned professors have overlooked is the drastic difference between the backgrounds of these candidates relative to their historical research.
Historical political research only really works at predicting future events when the subjects are the same. If you're comparing decades of historical caucus research on past candidates who were all Senators or Governors, right or left, conservative or liberal, or Republican or Democrat, then their conclusion would be more right than wrong.
But when the front-runner of one party is neither a past Senator or Governor, has never worked in government, but instead has been in business, not as a venture capitalist working with other people's money, but working with his own, who builds his own company, who operates his own businesses, who oversees the planning, design and construction, who tackles hard areas with difficult projects, and has done very well in that arena, and everyone else is a Senator or Governor or former one or the other .... it's a different ball-game than comparing apples to apples, because you've now got an orange and when the orange is leading the pack, historical research is well .... meaningless because you have no oranges to compare with.
We'll know a week from tomorrow if they were right or wrong!
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