Thread: Illegal immigration population plunges, estimates show

Originally Posted by topsecret10

Originally Posted by SOSADFORUS

I'll go with the DHS are liars and want CIR!

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Number of illegal immigrants in U.S. may be closer to 20 million

The "12 million undocumented and illegal immigrants" residing in our country have fueled the national discourse on immigration reform. The number is repeatedly cited by immigration reform advocates like CNN's Lou Dobbs looking to incite support for their policies in curtailing the influx of foreigners. But few politicos and pundits ever stop to ask two questions fundamental to the immigration debate: How do we calculate the number of illegal immigrants? And where did the number 12 million come from?

The methodology for counting unauthorized immigrants relies on a lot of assumptions which call into question the accuracy of the results. Twelve million may be the most popular number cited for illegal immigrants in the U.S at present, but some estimates, like one from Bear Stearns, believe the count is actually closer to a whopping 20 million.

The different estimates stem from the varied methodologies used to arrive at a figure. Most approximations of the size and characteristics of the illegal immigrant population use the "residual method," pioneered by Jeffrey Passel of the Pew Hispanic Center. It is Dr. Passel who first came up with the estimate of 12 million illegal immigrants. The most recent estimate by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) on the unauthorized population also uses the residual method.



The residual method uses a 2000 U.S. Census survey as its starting point because it yields an estimate on the number of foreign-born residents. Researchers subtract the number of immigrants who were authorized to come to the U.S. from the number of foreign-born residents counted by the Census Bureau. This number is then adjusted using estimates of immigrant deaths and migration, and to account for Census undercounting.

Because the estimate of foreign-born individuals living in the U.S. derived by the Census relies on survey respondents to answer the Census questionnaire honestly, and because the survey was done eight years ago, neither the estimate of foreign-born individuals nor the 12 million illegal immigrant estimate can be trusted. Are we to believe that houses full of illegal immigrants would give an accurate count of the people inside their home to Census takers? Even more absurd is the belief they would even fill out the survey or be found by the Census in the first place.

DHS anticipates the undercounting and adjusts their illegal immigrant estimates by a rate of 10% to account for it. But the adjustments amount to nothing more than guesswork; they are made without any means of precision.

‘Outmigration' also throws off estimates of illegal immigrants. Outmigration occurs when authorized immigrants leave the country or die. The events-which are projected from norms rather than recorded-alter the accuracy on the legal resident immigrant count used to calculate the number of illegal immigrants. Even Dr. Passel confesses that Outmigration is "hard to measure."

In 2005, Bear Stearns analysts determined that the surveys conducted by the Census Bureau undercounted the number of illegal immigrants by far more than 10%. Through discussions with illegal immigrants, Bear Stearns found that immigrants avoid responding to Census questionnaires and work very hard to conceal their identities.

As an alternative to the residual method, Bear Stearns used micro-economic indicators to project an alternative estimate. They examined trends in school enrollment, foreign remittances and housing permits in states with high populations of undocumented immigrants like Texas, California, and New York.

Underpinning Bear Stearns' estimate of 20 million illegal immigrants is the identification of two patterns: 1) a trend of sharply increased demand for public services in communities that have become gateways for immigration, and 2) increases in foreign remittances (money sent back to an immigrant's native country), housing permits and border-crossings.

Given the unrecorded nature of the illegal immigration phenomenon, it's unlikely that a well-founded or rigorous method of measurement will be developed. The reality is, the math is fuzzy and the most definitive conclusion one can make is that the measurements of illegal immigrants in the U.S. are subject to extreme inaccuracies.

Right! That was 20 million FIVE YEARS AGO ... not counting their offspring or all the illegal aliens who have over-stayed their visa. The DHS report is based on the Pew report which is based on a contrived model using inaccurate Census Data. For any government agency to claim there's only 10 million illegal aliens in the country when there's "at least" 12 million in California is a lie planted by the Open Borders Lobby.

Whatever "FAKE" number they are using is NO WAY the ACTUAL NUMBER OF ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS IN THE U.S.!!!! You'll REALLY KNOW when the illegal immigrants' number drops WHEN THE OPEN BORDERS AND PRO-ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT ACTIVISTS (LIKE LA RAZA, MALDEF) START SCREAMING BLOODY MURDER!!! THAT'S WHEN I'LL BELIEVE ANY ACTUAL NUMBERS INSTEAD OF THE FAKE NUMBERS POSTED BY SOME OPEN BORDERS "GOON"... 12 MILLION - SHEESH - HOW STUPID DO THEY THINK AMERICANS ARE???????????????

This is just more "Janet" garbage. Does anyone remember a few months ago when Obama said 47 million people were without health care and then a couple of months later that was decreased to 30 million because EVEN THE GOVERNMENT realized 17 million were illegals. So, where is this 10.8 million coming from? Some idiot in Washington DC that wants us to thing there is actually movement in the right direction.

but if they're already in the country, the preferred destination, they will do their best to stay and weather the storm.

Yes, they stay because we keep paying their way. If they were without work and all the things Americans are out of and Mexico was offering to make it cheaper on them they would be in Mexico in a split second. They are the ultimate opportunists. THEY NEVER STOP TAKING MORE THAN THEY GIVE.

Originally Posted by laughinglynx

This is just more "Janet" garbage. Does anyone remember a few months ago when Obama said 47 million people were without health care and then a couple of months later that was decreased to 30 million because EVEN THE GOVERNMENT realized 17 million were illegals. So, where is this 10.8 million coming from? Some idiot in Washington DC that wants us to thing there is actually movement in the right direction.

but if they're already in the country, the preferred destination, they will do their best to stay and weather the storm.

Yes, they stay because we keep paying their way. If they were without work and all the things Americans are out of and Mexico was offering to make it cheaper on them they would be in Mexico in a split second. They are the ultimate opportunists. THEY NEVER STOP TAKING MORE THAN THEY GIVE.

Good point Lynx...

DHS: 7 Percent Fewer Illegals Living in U.S.

Tuesday, 09 Feb 2010 09:41 PM

WASHINGTON — The number of illegal immigrants in the United States fell by seven percent last year to 10.8 million, coinciding with the country's financial crisis, a Department of Homeland Security report said Tuesday.

The majority of the country's illegal immigrants come from Latin America, with 62 percent from Mexico (6.7 million), followed by those from El Salvador (530,000), Guatemala (480,000) and Honduras (320,000).

Together with Filipinos (270,000), Latin Americans accounted for 85 percent of all illegal immigrants in the United States in 2009, the DHS report said.

"The number of unauthorized residents declined by 1.0 million between 2007 and 2009, coincident with the US economic downturn," said the report, based on census data and extrapolations from the total foreign population in the country.

Of the nearly 11 million undocumented people living in the United States in January 2009, 37 percent, or four million, arrived since January 2000, 44 percent since the 1990s and 19 percent since the 1980s, the DHS said.

The cutoff date of January 1, 1980 in the DHS's estimated tally of illegal immigrants corresponds to a grandfather clause in the 1986 US immigration reform law that extended residency to anybody living in the United States prior to that date.

In overall numbers, a little more than 31 million foreigners were living in the United States -- legally and illegally -- in January 2009, the report said.

California was the state with the most illegal immigrants, 2.6 million, followed by Texas with 1.7 million and Florida with 720,000.

"Between 2000 and 2009, the Mexican-born unauthorized immigrant population increased 2.0 million or 42 percent," said the report, confirming earlier independent studies of that nationality.

However, the biggest jump in illegal immigrants from a single nationality went to Hondurans, who saw their number almost double (a 95 percent increase) in the past decade.

Beside the US and global financial crisis, other reasons the report adduces for the drop in the undocumented population include tougher border enforcement and a national crackdown on illegal immigrants.

Since his inauguration a year ago, US President Barack Obama has been prodding Congress to take up immigration reform after two failed attempts in 2006 and 2007

http://newsmax.com/Newsfront/illegal-im ... /id/349454

Money Wired to Mexico Since Jan 2006 23,887,238,275
Money Wired to Latin America Since '01 228,271,300,000

We need to start taxing international money transfers.

As far as enforcement lowering the number of illegals, I believe it's more likely due to the economic downturn.

the only problem with the 12 million number is that its the same number we have heard for 5 years.
and while some might be leaving, im betting there are more than enough entering to take their place

http://www.numbersusa.com/content/node/5260

"They say immigration is a "social" issue that isn't related to government spending and deficit issues. They couldn't be more wrong. . . . "

Illegal immigrant population in U.S. plummets, according to a new report

February 10, 2010 | 11:58 am

The number of illegal immigrants living in the U.S. plummeted to 10.8 million in 2009, from 11.6 million the previous year, marking the sharpest decline in years and coinciding with the economic downturn, according to a new report by the Department of Homeland Security.

Mirroring a nationwide trend, California’s illegal-immigrant population dropped to 2.6 million, from 2.8 million during this same period, according to the report, which is based on census data. The only state to see its number of undocumented residents go up during this time was Georgia, which went from 460,000 to 480,000.

The report cautioned that changes made to the census survey could have affected the results.

Some researchers said that the drop is because fewer illegal immigrants were entering the country.

But others disagree, saying the decline is largely due to undocumented immigrants either voluntarily leaving or being deported.

Most researchers said that the downturn in the economy has played a key role in reducing the illegal immigrant population. But some point out that the drop in the undocumented population started before the recession.

The number of illegal immigrants residing in the U.S. declined to 11.6 million in 2008, from 11.7 million the previous year, according to the Department of Homeland Security. To see the full report, visit http://www.dhs.gov/files/statistics/immigration.shtm .

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/2 ... ar-ma.html

Good news, indeed, if there were factual and statistical truth behind it. You start with X (unknown number of illegals), throw in other factors like job opportunity, day labor (again an unknown quantity), remittances sent out of the country (provable number), number of ethnic products sold, number of ESL learners, number of foreign non-payers for medical services, and every other goofy criteria that can be imagined. None of these criteria even get close to giving a solid value for X, as X changes from 4 a.m. to 10 p.m. X is a starting point out of thin air and a number that changes like chasing spilled mercury.
While it may be good news less illegals are arriving, it does not mean we should even think about breathing a sigh of relief. Sure the economy stinks, but just think of all the free goodies illegals get here, much more than in the old country. Why should they leave?