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01-18-2008, 08:02 PM #21Originally Posted by zeezil
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01-18-2008, 08:03 PM #22Originally Posted by Saki
And the MSM will probably fawn over him if he wins SC. But regarding a possible McCain win in SC, I read this interesting speculation in the National Review:
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Momentum [Shannen Coffin]
Rich, I'd have to say that this a race in which momentum is too fleeting to support a long term prediction. You seem to be placing an inordinate amount of weight on the South Carolina primary. That may be supportable by recent history and conventional wisdom, but I'm not sure it fits the paradigm of this race (if you can even find a paradigm for this race). Let's start with the proposition that no one is picking up a large plurality of the national polls, which is likely explained simply by the fact that there is no obvious standard bearer for the base. McCain's momentum, if you call it that, puts him at no more than about 1/3 of Republican voters (and even that may be weighted with Independents). Romney, on the other hand, leads in the delegate count and has won one contested state and one more or less uncontested state. But if he picks up Nevada, he'll continue to pick up delegates and have three wins under his belt. At some point, the uncontested wins count, too, and collectively, they can't be ignored. If he keeps collecting them while finishing respectably in contested states, he'll be able to fight this out for a lot longer. And given the fracture in the base, I have a hard time envisioning a McCain sweep on Super Tuesday. So at this stage, I don't see South Carolina as a do or die state for any of the major contenders on the Republican side. It helps the winner, but it seems but one step in a multi-step battle this year. I doubt it turns anything around.
Note that I don't have a particular horse in this race. There are a couple of guys I could live with, but no one that has closed the deal with me just yet.
01/17 05:10 PM
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01-18-2008, 08:08 PM #23Originally Posted by usanevada
Anyway, the RCP Average for SC shows McCain up by 4.2, hardly a huge lead:
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01-18-2008, 08:15 PM #24
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Originally Posted by Populist
Keep in mind , Obama was a huge favorite in NH and Hillary came from way behind to kick his butt
I'm kind of thinking maybe this will happen again ,
I do watch CNN off and on also but I do like some of the daytime people on Fox , Except Shep Smith , the guys a raving symp
The Hannity and Combes show has been pretty good , one hour of all politics now ,
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01-18-2008, 08:15 PM #25
Everything that I am seeing is indicating that McCain has a strong lead in SC.
However, they are also reporting a lot of voters who have not made up their mind.
The polls for Michigan only showed Romney leading by less than one point---and Romney ended up winning by 9 points (maybe it was 10)."We call things racism just to get attention. We reduce complicated problems to racism, not because it is racism, but because it works." --- Alfredo Gutierrez, political consultant.
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01-18-2008, 08:18 PM #26
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These polls are really no different than handicapping a football
game
Sometimes they get it really wrong
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01-18-2008, 09:20 PM #27And given the fracture in the baseJoin our efforts to Secure America's Borders and End Illegal Immigration by Joining ALIPAC's E-Mail Alerts network (CLICK HERE)
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01-18-2008, 09:23 PM #28
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I think Rudi would have had a better chance running as a Dem
Really
I do think Romney will win in the end , the majority of the repub base just
wont get behind McCain
Rudi may take Florida , if he doesn't he will be done ,
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01-18-2008, 09:30 PM #29
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I really believe the pro-amnesty stand of McCain will cost him lots of votes in South Carolina and elsewhere.Lindsey Graham buddying with him will cost him votes also.I have a feeling that Mc will not come in first in South Carolina.Voters still have senate Bill #2611 from last year in their minds.
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01-18-2008, 10:03 PM #30Originally Posted by PhredE
I cannot believe anyone with a brain would support that idiot!!All that is necessary for evil to succeed is that good men do nothing. -Edmund Burke
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