Latest Polls Of The California Recall Election

Voters will decide whether to remove Gov. Gavin Newsom and — if removed — whom to replace him with

Opponents of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom of California have gathered enough signatures to trigger a recall election for him on Sept. 14 — only the fourth gubernatorial recall election in U.S. history. If a majority of Californians vote “yes” to recall, Newsom will be removed from office.
Do Californians want to remove Gavin Newsom from office?

An updating average of 2021 California gubernatorial recall election polls, accounting for each poll's quality, recency and sample size



July 14July 24Aug. 3Aug. 14Aug. 24Sept. 3Sept. 14Election Day3540455055%Keep 48.8%Keep 48.8%Remove 47.6%Remove 47.6%Aug. 17Keep+1.2Aug. 17KeepA chart showing the polling averages since July 14 for whether to keep California Gov. Gavin Newsom in office or remove him, with dots representing each poll. “Keep” is polling at an average of 48.8 percent, and “Remove” is polling at an average of 47.6 percent.


Dates Pollster Sample Keep Remove Leader Adjusted Leader
Aug. 6-12 B+


YouGov		 1,534 LV 52% 48% Keep +4 Keep +3
Aug. 2-4 A


SurveyUSA		 613 LV 40% 51% Remove +11 Remove +9
Jul. 30-Aug. 1 A-


Emerson College		 1,000 LV 48% 46% Keep +3 Keep +3
Jul. 27-29 Core Decision Analytics 731 LV 51% 44% Keep +7 Keep +6
Jul. 18-24 B/C


University of California, Berkeley		 2,783 LV 50% 47% Keep +3 Keep +2
Jul. 19-20 A-


Emerson College		 1,085 RV 48% 43% Keep +5 Keep +5
Jun. 11-16 B-


Change Research		 1,085 RV 54% 40% Keep +14 Keep +12
Jun. 1-3 B/C


Moore Information		 682 LV 46% 49% Remove +3 Tie
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If Newsom is removed from office, the second question on the recall ballot will determine his replacement. Forty-six candidates are in the running, and it just takes a simple plurality to win, meaning a candidate could win with only minority support (there is no runoff). Californians can vote on the second question even if they vote against recalling Newsom on the first question.
Whom would Californians want to replace Gavin Newsom as governor?

An updating average of 2021 California gubernatorial replacement election polls, accounting for each poll's quality, recency and sample size



July 14July 24Aug. 3Aug. 14Aug. 24Sept. 3Sept. 14Election Day0510152025%Cox 6.1%Cox 6.1%Paffrath 9.1%Paffrath 9.1%Elder 19.3%Elder 19.3%Aug. 17 leaderElder+10.2Aug. 17 leaderElderA chart showing the polling averages since July 14 for whom to replace California Gov. Gavin Newsom with (if his recall is successful), with dots representing each poll. Candidates with a polling average of at least 5 percent are listed by name. Republican Larry Elder is leading with an average of 19.3 percent.


Dates Pollster Sample Leader Adjusted Leader
Aug. 6-12 B+


YouGov		 1,534 LV Elder +10 Elder +10 Show all candidates+
Aug. 2-4 A


SurveyUSA		 545 LV Paffrath +4 Tie Show all candidates+
Jul. 30-Aug. 1 A-


Emerson College		 1,000 LV Elder +15 Elder +14 Show all candidates+
Jul. 27-29 Core Decision Analytics 731 LV Elder +6 Elder +7 Show all candidates+
Jul. 18-24 B/C


University of California, Berkeley		 5,795 RV Elder +4 Elder +7 Show all candidates+
Jul. 19-20 A-


Emerson College		 1,085 RV Elder +10 Elder +9 Show all candidates+
Jun. 1-3 B/C


Moore Information		 682 LV Cox +12 Cox +9 Show all candidates+

Download data: polls, trend lines.
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Design and development by Aaron Bycoffe. Statistical model by Nate Silver. Research by Mary Radcliffe. Additional contributions by Nathaniel Rakich. Story editing by Sarah Frostenson. Copy editing by Maya Sweedler.


https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...-recall-polls/